Courting spurned neighbour tops Beijing's agenda from visit of Vietnam's Communist Party chief, say analysts
Mr Lam’s three-day trip began on Sunday with his arrival in Guangzhou, his first overseas state visit since becoming the new Vietnamese Communist Party chief earlier this month.
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SINGAPORE: Washington’s refusal to grant Hanoi a “market economy” status provides Beijing with a timely opportunity to capitalise on its socialist neighbour’s hurt feelings and to shore up their closer ties through Vietnam’s Communist Party chief’s visit, say analysts.
Analysts believe China would want to sound out Vietnam’s newly minted Communist Party chief To Lam over the country’s foreign policy front and also to promote President Xi Jinping’s “Belt and Road” projects in Vietnam such as the Lao Cai - Hanoi - Hai Phong railway project among others.
Observers say the timing of the trip is crucial to note, given that it’s coming soon after Washington’s decision to classify Hanoi as a “non-market economy”, even if the visit was likely planned in advance.
The decision on August 2 by the US Commerce Department to continue to classify Vietnam as a “non-market economy” (NME) sparked great disappointment from the Vietnamese especially after a period of tightening ties between Hanoi and Washington.
An upgrade to market economy status would have made Vietnamese exports to the US significantly cheaper, according to experts.
“Hanoi is clearly angered by the decision,” said Professor Zachary Abuza from the National War College in Washington, adding that he was expecting Chinese leaders to capitalise on hurt feelings.
“They are always whispering in the ears of the Vietnamese that the United States cannot be trusted and that the country should remain committed to its socialist foreign policy,” he told CNA.
At the same time, Beijing will take the opportunity to evaluate Mr Lam’s leadership, Mr Abuza added.
“To Lam has made multiple visits to China and is a known quantity to the Chinese leadership. China obviously wants to sound him out and make sure that there will be foreign policy continuity going forward,” he said.
WARM BUT “SCEPTICAL” WELCOME
Mr Lam’s three-day trip began on Sunday with his arrival in Guangzhou, his first overseas state visit since becoming the new Vietnamese Communist Party chief earlier this month.
He took over the party reins on August 3, following the death of Nguyen Phu Trong on July 19. Notably, Mr Trong also chose China for his first state visit when he assumed the party role in 2011.
After he flew to Beijing on Sunday evening, Mr Lam met Chinese President Xi Jinping on Monday.
He inspected a military parade outside the Great Hall of the People before meeting with Mr Xi. Inside the state building near Tiananmen Square, the two leaders signed cooperation agreements.
During their discussions, President Xi highlighted the importance of the relationship between the two ruling communist parties, urging China and Vietnam to "uphold the original spirit of friendship, maintain traditional ties, and deepen the strategically important Sino-Vietnamese shared community of destiny."
Congratulating Mr Lam on his new role, Mr Xi expressed confidence that by continuing their "common endeavour of promoting the cause of world socialism," both countries would see their paths "widen."
In response, Mr Lam lauded Mr Xi for steering China into becoming a "strong and prosperous country," and praised his efforts in advancing Beijing's "role in peace, cooperation, and development in the region and the world".
Mr Lam’s visit to China has been warmly portrayed by Chinese state media, which highlighted the enduring ties and shared history between the two socialist nations.
Reporting on the Vietnamese leader's visit to Guangzhou, Chinese state media agency Xinhua prominently highlighted his statement that Vietnam regarded its relationship with China as a top foreign policy priority and remained committed to maintaining the enduring friendship established by past generations of leaders from both nations.
State-owned newspaper The Global Times praised the camaraderie between the two nations in a commentary, stating that their robust ties will lead to increased economic collaboration benefiting both populations. The mutual goodwill displayed by China and Vietnam, the newspaper added, sets a positive example for the entire region.
But some Chinese netizens on Weibo remained sceptical about the visit.
"(China) should be careful not to offer too many incentives to Vietnam, as it might later shift its alignment (towards the West)," said one Weibo user.
Commenting on ongoing disputes in the South China Sea, another Weibo user remarked: "(Vietnam) should drop its claims on the disputed waters; only then will relations with China be smooth."
WHAT VIETNAM WANTS
China is Vietnam’s largest trading partner, with two-way trade accounting for US$173.3 billion last year.
On Monday, both leaders signed 14 deals ranging from cross-border railway infrastructure projects to exports of various goods including coconuts, durians and crocodiles, according to media reports.
Vietnamese officials previously said rail links connecting the countries would be high on the agenda when the leaders meet. Chinese manufacturers have been expanding operations to Vietnam amid trade tensions with the US.
Emeritus professor Damien Kingsbury from Deakin University’s School of Humanities and Social Sciences told CNA that it was currently an “opportune time” for Vietnam’s new Communist Party chief “to deepen trade and investment ties” with its neighbour, also the world’s second-largest economy.
“Vietnam is clearly looking to expand its economy with whoever is prepared to be a willing partner,” Mr Kingsbury said, adding that Hanoi was expected to build on existing economic relations by “increasing trade and Chinese investment” in the Southeast Asian country.
“There may also be discussion about a free trade zone along the border, or some lessening of barriers to trade and investment in their common border region,” he added.
Dr Hoang Viet from Ho Chi Minh City University of Law said that even if the US had recognised Vietnam as a NME, Hanoi will still want to continue to promote economic and trade relations with Beijing at a deeper level.
“However, Vietnam does not only want to do so with the Chinese market, it also wants to increase economic and trade relations with other important partners such as the US, EU, Japan etc,” he added, saying it’s part of the country’s policy of multilateralisation and diversification.
Mr Lam’s visit to China is also designed to stress Vietnam's commitment to its established foreign policies while showcasing his administration’s focus on improving economic prospects amid recent domestic political instability, analysts say.
In this context, experts believe he is seeking to solidify his political standing at home in Vietnam following a period of leadership turbulence, which saw the ouster of several high-ranking party officials including former presidents Nguyen Xuan Phuc and Vo Van Thuong, deputy prime minister Pham Binh Minh and the National Assembly chairman Vuong Dinh Hue, over corruption allegations.
Mr Kingsbury noted the significance of improved relations between the two neighbours. “Strengthening relations with China could not only mend ties with Laos and potentially Cambodia (for Vietnam) but also open opportunities for closer relations with Thailand, which could enhance exports and investment,” he said.
International relations expert Chong Ja Ian of the National University of Singapore said both sides are expected to discuss a range of issues, such as management of tributaries to the Mekong and cross-border trade.
“The visit signals the continued valuing of Vietnam’s relationship with PRC (People’s Republic of China), and a desire to have smooth ties even if differences remain,” he added.
Emeritus professor Carlyle Thayer from the University of New South Wales (UNSW) Canberra, drew reference to Mr Lam’s first China visit as Vietnam’s Communist Party chief, like his predecessor Trong did.
“(Like Trong), To Lam is signalling that Vietnam is acknowledging China’s pre-eminent role as a socialist country (and) that intra-party relations is the most important bilateral conduit for relations,” added Prof Thayer.
He believes Mr Lam is also likely to seek assurances that China remains committed to the proposals made between former General Secretary Trong and Chinese President Xi, including the revision of financial regulations to facilitate currency exchanges between the renminbi and the dong.
In addition to his visit to China, Mr Lam is scheduled to attend the United Nations General Assembly in New York this September. Professor Abuza from the National War College noted that the Vietnamese leader may meet with US President Joe Biden during his visit.
The back-to-back visits to the two superpowers underscore Vietnam's flexible foreign policy, known as "bamboo diplomacy," in navigating complex geopolitical challenges.
“Vietnam’s bamboo diplomacy is a metaphor not a strategy… The ends of Vietnam’s foreign policy are to remain independent and self-reliant by diversifying and multilateralising its foreign relations. Bamboo diplomacy – the ways – are to be firm on principle such as defending national sovereignty – but flexible in practices.” said Professor Thayer.
WHAT CHINA WANTS
Beijing, on the other hand, was not only willing but would also be highly motivated to advance key projects under its Belt and Road Initiative, such as the Lao Cai-Hanoi-Hai Phong railway.
The new train lines are expected to link up with the recently built routes extending China’s railway network to the Vietnamese border, facilitating imports of Chinese industrial goods and materials, experts said.
Exports to China reached $27.8 billion in the first half of the year, a 5.3 per cent increase from the previous year, according to the Vietnamese General Statistics Office. Concurrently, Vietnam imported $67 billion worth of goods from China, up 34.7%, resulting in a trade deficit of $39.2 billion, a 67.9 per cent rise.
The Vietnamese Ministry of Industry and Trade subsequently reported that bilateral trade between the two countries surpassed $100 billion during that period, solidifying China's position as Vietnam's largest trading partner.
“(President) Lam will be looking to build a more positive relationship (by) increasing trade and Chinese investment in Vietnam… There may also be discussion about a free trade zone along the border, or some (sort of) lessening of barriers to trade and investment in their common border region, ” said Prof Kingsbury of Deakin University.
TERRITORIAL DISPUTES
Mr Lam’s inaugural state visit to China also follows weeks of political posturing between Hanoi and Beijing over competing claims in the South China Sea.
Earlier this month, the Philippine and Vietnamese coast guards held their first joint drills, amid ongoing territorial disputes with each other and, more critically, with China, which claims nearly the entire South China Sea.
But ongoing territorial disputes are unlikely to impede the strengthening of bilateral relations between China and Vietnam this time round, according to analysts.
“Joint patrols among the Vietnamese Coast Guard and others of ASEAN countries are completely normal. The Vietnamese Coast Guard has also conducted joint patrols with the Chinese Coast Guard many times, therefore, these joint patrols should be understood as activities to promote cooperative relations among Vietnam and many friendly countries,” said Dr Viet.
Professor Abuza seconded that, adding that ongoing disputes in the South China Sea were unlikely to affect current relations between Hanoi and Beijing. “I imagine both sides will downplay this,” Mr Abuza said.
“For Vietnamese leaders, the South China Sea (situation) is something they just don't want to deal with as they really can't stop Chinese aggression which makes them look weak in the eyes of their public – and China never picks on multiple countries at the same time, for fear of turning it into a multilateral issue.
“They (Beijing) would prefer to deal with it as a bilateral issue because of their overwhelming asymmetry in power.”
