CAAS and NEA launch programme to tackle impact of changing weather patterns on aviation
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SINGAPORE: The Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore (CAAS) and the National Environment Agency (NEA) have launched a national programme to tackle the effects of weather on aviation by strengthening the country's aviation meteorological capabilities.
The initiative comes as weather patterns lead to more flight delays and diversions, disruptions to airport operations, turbulence and other aviation safety concerns around the world, the agencies said in a joint media release on Tuesday (Dec 9).
The multidisciplinary Aviation Meteorological Programme will bring together experts in aviation and meteorology, as well as aviation companies and unions.
It will aim to build capabilities in research and development (R&D) and operations that will enhance the prediction, mitigation and management of the effects of weather on air traffic control, airlines and airport operations, the agencies said.
The programme will have five focus areas that each address a critical weather phenomenon that affects aviation operations in Singapore and the region.
These areas are lightning, turbulence, convective weather, surface winds and condensation trails, or contrails.
Focus areas of the Aviation Meteorological Programme
Lightning
Singapore is one of the world's most lightning-prone countries, and the phenomenon poses safety risks to airside workers, disrupts airport operations and delays flights and baggage handling, CAAS and NEA said.
Lightning risk notifications are currently issued based on a 6km safety radius around Changi Airport, however, this poses operational challenges, especially with the airport's footprint set to nearly double with the completion of Terminal 5.
CAAS and NEA will therefore aim to minimise the effects of cloud-to-ground lightning by improving Singapore's lightning forecast precision.
They will seek to do so through means such as the creation of a more precise density map of lightning strikes at Changi Airport based on historical data; electromagnetic modelling of lightning interactions with aircraft, airport infrastructure and people; the use of algorithms to strengthen current predictions of lightning events and zone-based lightning risk assessment.
According to the agencies, this will "enhance worker safety, reduce downtime and allow for a more targeted zone-based approach to managing lightning risk".
Turbulence
CAAS and NEA will strengthen predictions of in-flight turbulence as severe turbulence incidents increase globally, posing safety risks to flight passengers and crew.
They will also provide airlines with "more timely, reliable and actionable weather information".
Convective weather
The agencies will work towards improving convective weather forecasting "to support real-time decision-making and optimise airport operations", amid an increase in weather-related flight diversions and delays.
Convective weather in the region refers to thunderstorms causing wind shear that can occur and dissipate abruptly, making them difficult to predict.
Between January and November 2025, 55 flights were diverted from Changi Airport because of bad weather, a sharp rise from the nine flight diversions in the same period a year ago, the agencies said.
Surface winds
CAAS and NEA will also strengthen the accuracy and timeliness of surface wind forecasts to better plan for runway changes and optimise runway use.
Rapidly shifting winds can result in multiple runway changes, reducing runway capacity and posing challenges to air traffic controllers and pilots, the agencies said.
Contrails
The agencies said that they will improve scientific knowledge on contrails, notably in the Asia-Pacific region, where atmospheric conditions are different from those in Europe and North America, and data is limited.
This will "inform future mitigation strategies and contribute to global policy development" amid "growing global attention on condensation trails and their effects on global warming", they said.
A steering committee has also been set up to helm the programme.
The committee is co-chaired by CAAS director-general Han Kok Juan and NEA CEO Wong Kang Jet.
Other members of the committee include senior representatives from Changi Airport Group, Singapore Airlines, SIA Engineering Company, SATS, the National Trades Union Congress and the International Centre for Aviation Innovation (ICAI).
CAAS and NEA said that regional collaboration was also needed to effectively mitigate the impact of changing weather patterns on aviation operations as they cross geographical boundaries.
To support this, the agencies initiated and signed a letter of intent in Hong Kong on Monday to collaborate with six other air navigation service providers and meteorological service providers, the Civil Air Navigation Services Organisation and ICAI in R&D, capability development and data sharing.
"Changes in weather patterns are affecting aviation operations all over the world, including in Singapore," said Mr Han.
"We take this seriously and are taking concrete steps to address it through better leveraging technology, including (artificial intelligence), integrating national aviation and meteorology expertise, and regional partnership."
Ms Koh Li-Na, the director-general of NEA's Meteorological Service Singapore, said that the agency welcomed the initiative, which will give meteorological service providers opportunities to improve the predictability of weather systems in the region and tailor solutions to support aviation stakeholders.
