Singapore’s Covid-19 fatality rate among lowest globally, but yearly death toll could reach 2,000 'despite best medical care': MOH

• Singapore could see 2,000 deaths per year despite the best standards of medical care
• The Republic has so far avoided overwhelming its healthcare system, to the point where doctors had to choose which patients to save
• Senior Minister of State for Health Janil Puthucheary said that the goal is to avoid excess mortality
• This is when a lot more people than expected die in a year

SINGAPORE — Singapore’s death rate from a Covid-19 infection is at 0.2 per cent, lower than the 3 per cent in other countries, making it one of the countries with the lowest fatality rates in the world.

While this means that the death rate for Covid-19 in Singapore is similar to that of pneumonia, the nation could see 2,000 deaths per year “despite the best possible medical care”.

Before the pandemic, about 4,000 — mostly elderly and unwell — people died from influenza, viral pneumonias and other respiratory diseases.

Senior Minister of State for Health Janil Puthucheary said this in Parliament on Monday (Nov 1) as he provided an update on the intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital capacity here and laid out Singapore’s goal of keeping overall deaths on par with a non-Covid year.

He also gave an update on reinfected cases, with 32 such cases detected up to mid-August, all of them being unvaccinated.

Dr Janil said that Singapore has kept the fatality rate low due to tight restrictions that kept the community case numbers low at the start of the pandemic.

“But with cases rising fast, the case fatality rate remains low now because we have reached such a high vaccination rate, and because all those who have become sick have been able to receive the care that they need,” he said.

He added that the healthcare system, while stressed, has not been overwhelmed.

This is “unlike many countries last year, where patients had to be turned away and doctors had to choose among many patients whom to save”.

These countries had experienced “excess mortality”, which is when a lot more people than expected die in a year.

While Singapore is trying hard to avoid that by keeping restrictions tight last year before opening up cautiously after the majority of the population has been vaccinated, “we have to accept there will be some deaths”, said Dr Janil.

“Our goal is to make sure that there are no significant excess deaths as a result of an inability to provide adequate medical care,” he said. “So far that is something that we have been able to do, and that we want to keep doing.”

He said that up until recently, Singapore has kept the absolute number of deaths small by ensuring that few people caught Covid-19, and those who did get infected received good treatment and care.

The situation, however, has changed, he said, as “we have to live with Covid-19” and that vaccinations do not provide complete protection, which has led to more infections.

While there will be fatalities, Dr Janil added that Singapore is trying to avoid having excess mortality and is doing so with the combination of high vaccination rates, booster jabs and “boosting from mild infections”.

He added that the alternative — opening up and having the cases shoot up — is not an option.

“Because more and more cases will translate into more and more ICU beds used, and beyond a certain point that will force us to accept a lower standard of care, and hence have more deaths that could have been prevented,” he said.

He said that even if ICU cases rise sharply despite Singapore’s cautious approach, the healthcare system will still do its best to look after every patient.

“Despite our best efforts, events may overtake us and we may have no choice in the matter… I would strongly prefer if we can avoid that dreadful scenario,” he said.