ISEAS Regional Outlook Forum - Navigating A Different World

The Regional Outlook Forum (ROF) 2026 convenes at a critical juncture marked by global disruption, uncertainty and conflict. President Donald Trump’s policies in 2025 continue to put America First. And with the US’ detached behaviour towards the ongoing Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine conflicts, it is uncertain if Washington will remain committed to its security alliances in the Asia Pacific amid China’s military assertiveness. In addition, Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs sent shockwaves through the international trading system to threaten the rules-based global order, with Southeast Asia among the hardest hit by ‘reciprocal tariffs.’ These trade shocks are compounded by rising debt, inflationary pressures, disruptive demographic shifts, and technological and climate change. ROF2026 will discuss these challenges and outline pathways for resilience and adaptability in an increasingly fragmented and volatile global order.

ROF 2026 will also assess domestic political developments across Southeast Asia and their implications for the region’s stability. Less than a year into his presidency, President Prabowo Subianto has seen riots erupt across the country, raising doubts over his administration’s handling of economic reforms, tackling inequality, and promoting democracy. In Myanmar, the military-backed State Security and Peace Commission (SSPC) is moving ahead with long-promised elections despite ongoing civil conflict in several regions, with significant implications for the country’s diverse ethnic communities. Whether an election will lead to reconciliation remains unclear.

Thailand’s domestic politics, particularly the abrupt end of former Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s one-year premiership and its ramifications, will be examined, as will crucial issues such as bilateral tensions with neighbouring Cambodia over unresolved border issues. Attention will then shift to the Philippines, as it prepares to assume the 2026 ASEAN Chairmanship. Its regional role may be affected by ongoing security concerns, particularly tensions in the South China Sea, as it manages a complex domestic environment marked by rivalling political dynasties, security threats, and economic uncertainties. Lastly, ROF 2026 will take stock of Malaysia’s political developments under Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, as his unity government enters its third year in office. While some economic and institutional reforms have been introduced, concerns over electoral fairness, identity politics, and corruption raise questions over the country’s democratic maturity and national cohesion.