CNA Explains: Trump found guilty in hush money trial - can he still be US president?

Former United States president Donald Trump will head into an election rematch with current President Joe Biden in November, but this time, he will run for the White House as a convicted felon.

On Thursday (May 30), a New York jury found the 77-year-old guilty of falsifying business records to suppress negative information during the 2016 elections, including payments to silence porn star Stormy Daniels.

The verdict pushes the US into unchartered territory ahead of the presidential election on Nov 5.

What happens now? 

A 12-member jury found Trump guilty on all 34 charges in the hush money case after two days of deliberation. 

This has made him the first former president in US history to be convicted of a felony.

“Thirty-four out of 34 charges were found to be guilty. There was not a single one in which he was not found to be guilty,” noted Mr Jared Mondschein, director of research at think tank United States Studies Centre. 

“The fact that he was so adamant that he had literally done nothing wrong, really did not give a lot of believability to the jurors when they were looking at the facts of the case,” he told CNA938. 

Judge Juan Merchan has set sentencing for Jul 11, just a few days before the Republican National Convention, where GOP leaders are set to formally nominate Trump for president.

However, the sentencing is not likely to derail Trump’s efforts to secure the nomination, said Dr William G Howell, the Sydney Stein Professor in American Politics at the University of Chicago. 

“This is just another talking point, another proof that everything as he says is broken, everything's a sham, everything's political, and he's the one now to stand up … for America,” he told CNA’s Asia First. 

Dr Trisha Craig, executive director of Princeton Institute for International and Regional Studies at Princeton University, said there will likely be a push from the Trump team to try and move the sentencing until after the election. 

Dr Craig told CNA’s Asia First there is a sense that Judge Merchan will want to move things along.

“Judge Merchan is a kind of no-nonsense judge … However, he also has to be very careful … He will have to be sure to be seen as an impartial judge,” she added.

Trump, who appeared visibly upset when he heard the verdict, claimed he is being unfairly treated. 

“This was a rigged, disgraceful trial. The real verdict is going to be on November 5th, by the people, and they know what happened here,” he said. 

He will remain a free man while he awaits sentencing, and is expected to appeal the verdict.

Trump denies ever having sex with adult-film actress Daniels. 

During the appeal, his lawyers are likely to argue that the case is politically motivated. They will also likely focus on the porn star’s salacious testimony about a sexual encounter she says she had with Trump in 2006. 

“They will be pointing to the sort of witnesses that were called. They'll take issue with some of the documents that were there,” said Dr Craig. 

“But I think how it will really be impactful is that it is really likely to go beyond the date of the election. So going up to the election, we're not going to have the sort of certainty of closure of this trial.”

Observers said there is no real precedent for such a situation, as this is the first time ever that a president or former president has been found guilty on criminal charges.

Falsifying documents on its own is a misdemeanour in New York, but it was elevated to a felony on grounds that Trump was concealing an illegal campaign contribution.

“There's a long history in America of presidents behaving poorly, of scandals, of making bad decisions,” said Dr Howell. 

“But no former president has ever been convicted of a felony until today. It's a big deal.”

Is Trump going to prison? 

The crime of falsifying business records carries a maximum sentence of four years in jail, but those convicted often receive shorter sentences of a year or less, fines or probation. 

Analysts said it is unlikely that Trump, who is older and has no criminal history, will be sentenced to time behind bars.

Even if he is, Trump - who enjoys lifetime Secret Service protection as a former president - could be placed under home confinement, said Dr Craig. 

“We have to remember that these are the kind of lowest-level felony charges, so fines and probation I think are an option,” she added. 

“And of course, I think we can't ignore the politics around sentencing Trump to jail.”

Will this affect Trump's White House bid?

Incarceration would not prevent Trump from running for the White House, even with a criminal record now attached to his name. 

The US Constitution has only three requirements for presidential candidates. They must have lived in the country for at least 14 years, be at least 35 years old, and be a natural-born US citizen.

In theory, Trump, who meets all three requirements, could be sworn in from prison if he wins. 

“He could run for a presidency from prison. The Constitution does not limit him from running for presidency from prison,” said Mr Mondschein.

“So constitutionally, there are very strict limits on what you can and cannot do to be eligible to run for president, and he technically can be in prison and run for president and win office.”

Meanwhile, 81-year-old Biden's campaign team has reacted to the verdict, saying "no one is above the law" and urged voters to reject Trump in the election.

The White House declined to weigh in on the former president's conviction.

It is “staying as far away from this as possible”, said Dr Craig. 

“We see Trump is trying to pull them into it as he claims this is all a Biden plot,” she added. “But I think one of the things that we're seeing is that it will free the Biden campaign somewhat to turn this into an issue.”

What are the other criminal cases against Trump? 

The hush money case is seen as the least consequential of the four criminal prosecutions against Trump. 

But it is likely to be the only one with a verdict before the Nov 5 election, as the others are delayed by procedural challenges.

There are two federal cases that accuse Trump of illegally trying to overturn his 2020 election defeat to Biden and derail the transfer of power, and taking highly sensitive national security documents from the White House after he left office in 2021. 

A separate case is taking place in Georgia, where Trump is accused of illegally trying to overturn his narrow election loss in the state. 

Trump has pleaded not guilty in all the cases against him. 

How will this affect his popularity? 

The November election will test whether voters want to pick a president with a criminal record for the first time.

But several polls have found that the guilty verdict is unlikely to sway most people’s votes and change the dynamics of the election. 

According to a survey by National Public Radio ahead of Thursday’s verdict, only one in six people said a guilty verdict would make them less likely to vote for Trump.

Opinion polls have shown that Trump and his opponent Biden are locked in a tight race. 

Dr Craig noted that Trump’s troubles are “not really going to move the needle a whole lot”.

“I think what electors really care about are still the things that the Biden administration has not been great on. They care about inflation, they care about where the economy is going,” she added.

“Those are the kind of things that the Biden administration is going to have to really push on, but they will be freed up a little bit, I think, to amplify that message of the threats to American democracy.”

Leading Republicans have rallied behind Trump in what they view as a political witch hunt by his opponents to keep him from getting back into office, with one representative calling the trial a sham and “a clear example of election interference”. 

US House Speaker Mike Johnson has also slammed the verdict as “a purely political exercise”. 

Analysts said Trump has used his legal problems to fire up financial support for his campaign. 

The verdict has spurred major Republican donors to pledge millions of dollars to support Trump on a tumultuous day for his election campaign.

“I think people on the left are jubilant, and people on the right are hardened. But they're going to vote as they've been planning to vote all along, either for or against Trump,” said Dr Howell. 

“What remains to be seen is whether or not there is a set of moderates - people in the middle - who say voting for a convicted felon is just a bridge too far. 

“But in the interim, we can expect both camps to try to put this decision to good political use.”

Mr Mondschein said the cases against Trump could well work to his advantage.

“When he had that mugshot taken of him in Georgia for the election interference case… his supporters loved it, his supporters put it on their shirts, made mugs out of it, made posters out of that same mugshot,” he added. 

“Because they saw it … as a vindication of their view; that he is unfairly prosecuted. When he was running for the Republican ticket, this was the sort of news that really helped him.”