Could the four-day truce between Israel and Hamas be extended? 

Whether the ongoing ceasefire between Israel and Hamas can be extended beyond the agreed period will depend on the level of trust on both sides, experts told CNA on Monday (Nov 27).

The truce entered its fourth and final day on Monday, with a series of hostage-prisoner swaps taking place in the first three days.

“Hope? Definitely. Confidence? I’ll be more cautious," said Dr Jean-Loup Samaan, senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute of the possible extension.

On Sunday, Hamas freed 17 hostages held in Gaza, including a four-year-old American girl, who were part of a larger group captured when Hamas fighters attacked Israel on Oct 7. In return, Israel freed 39 Palestinians, all of whom are teenagers, according to local media.

Hamas said it wanted to extend the truce if serious efforts were made to increase the number of Palestinian detainees released by Israel, while United States President Joe Biden also said he hoped the pause in fighting can go on as long as hostages are getting released.

“From the beginning of the truce, the idea was that this would be a day-by-day process that it is about building trust on both sides, that this exchange of hostages and prisoners can work,” Dr Samaan told CNA938.

He noted, however, that the Israeli government is still indicating that it is ready to continue with military operations in Gaza.

“I assume that even if it is extended, that will be just for a few more days. We won't have at this stage, any scenarios such as to have a permanent ceasefire,” said Dr Samaan.

While there have been some disagreements over the selection of hostages to be released on both sides, they are just “minor details”, he said, adding that the arrangement has gone well overall.

There has not been a major breach of the terms of the ceasefire in the past few days, giving hope for a potential extension, said Dr Samaan.

RESPITE FOR GAZA

Dr Anas Iqtait, lecturer of economics and political economy of the Middle East at the Australian National University, told CNA’s Asia First on Monday that the Gaza Strip has seen an extensive level of damage, and the truce would allow Hamas to reorganise its management of the territory.

“It's important to mention that the Gaza Strip’s governance system is run by Hamas, and this includes things such as healthcare, education – which has been suspended since the beginning of the war – and other municipal services and the like,” he noted.

From a governance and humanitarian point of view, the truce has brought some much needed respite for the Palestinians amid the extensive bombardment, which has destroyed a vast majority of infrastructure and displaced much of the population in the north of Gaza.

Meanwhile, the total number of Palestinian prisoners in Israel is unconfirmed, said Dr Iqtait.

More than 2,000 people have been imprisoned across the West Bank since Oct 7, when Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel, Palestinian Prisoners’ Club director Qadura Fares had told the Associated Press.

Dr Iqtait explained that the vast majority of Palestinian prisoners are tried in Israeli military courts, including the children, and they are held under different pretexts, including stone-throwing, illegal demonstrations, protesting and resisting arrest.

“The context is extremely important here. The West Bank and the Gaza Strip obviously are under Israeli military occupation, and (for) the Palestinians (the) rules they live under are the Israeli military rules, including their imprisonment,” he said.

He noted that Israeli military courts have a high conviction rate of more than 97 per cent, and when faced with accusations, those accused are being prevented from properly defending themselves and do not go through a fair court system.

FOREIGN HOSTAGES

The foreign hostages caught up in the mix also add another layer of complexity to the war, said Dr Iqtait.

Qatari officials believe that 40 of its nationals – all women and children – are being held in Gaza by gangs. They are among the civilians who have been captured by militant groups that do not belong to Hamas.

“So one of the objectives of the ceasefire was for Hamas to be able to identify and count and locate the total number of Israelis who have been held captive and who are being held captive inside of the Gaza Strip,” said Dr Iqtait.

“The fact that Hamas doesn't really have a complete picture of how many Israelis are inside of the Gaza Strip, makes it that more complicated for the continuation of the ceasefire, and also for a peaceful resolution for the release of these captives.”

Dr Samaan noted that hostage release is a tactic being employed by Hamas, and is a “continuation of the war by other means”.

The group will try as much as possible to extend the ceasefire by slowing down the release of hostages, including withholding the US hostages and Israeli military officers it had captured, he added.

“This is also one of the reasons why eventually, this could unravel and we could see a return to the military operations,” he said.

If Hamas sees that the military operation will ultimately continue, it will probably keep the hostages and possibly use them as human shields from Israeli strikes, said Dr Samaan.

He noted the significance of the US involvement in the deal. The US, along with Egypt and Qatar, had played a decisive role in facilitating the arrangement between Hamas and Israel.

The US government is directly involved as there are a number of US citizens among the hostages held by Hamas, said Dr Samaan.

“In addition to that, there is a clear hope on the US side from the Biden administration that what we see with this truce is the possible de-escalation (of the conflict),” he said.

“There's a desire very clearly from the White House to reduce the level of the military operations that we've seen over the last week.”