Why Donald Trump picked JD Vance and what it shows about the former president's standing

Donald Trump chose his former critic JD Vance as his running mate and vice-presidential candidate in the upcoming United States election based on their similar ideologies and the expectation of a win, observers said on Tuesday (Jul 16).

Trump’s calculation is straightforward, said Clayton Allen, director of United States at American political risk consultancy Eurasia Group.

“Vance is the closest ideological match to him out of the list of potential candidates,” he told CNA’s Asia First, adding that Vance has shown loyalty – a quality that Trump prizes in his ticket. The presidential election is set to be held on Nov 5.

Allen said that Vance’s appeal will help in swing states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin, where Trump is expected to have to compete very hard for votes.

However, Trump’s selection of a nominee who is similar to him shows Trump is not trying to broaden his base, and that he expects to win the election, said William G Howell, The Sydney Stein Professor of American Politics at The University of Chicago.

“He's feeling pretty good about his fortunes, which is why he picked somebody who isn't going to hand over a key state,” Howell added.

“Ohio already leans Republican and he's not going to speak to a different wing of the Republican Party. He's speaking very much in the voice of Trump.”

The selection of Vance, who is a junior senator from Ohio, was first announced on Trump's Truth Social media website. 

It also emerged at the start of the four-day Republican National Convention in Milwaukee on Monday, where Republican delegates officially announced the former president as their nominee. 

The convention took place just two days after an assassination attempt on Trump, 78. It also came amid the dismissal of a criminal case against Trump on charges of mishandling top secret documents.

TRUMP’S POSITION WITHIN HIS PARTY

“What's really significant about the selection of JD Vance is the difference between this moment and what we saw in 2016, where there was all kinds of scepticism among conservative circles about whether or not Donald Trump was a real conservative,” said Howell.

He noted that Trump’s selection of Mike Pence at the time was an effort to shore up support from evangelical Christian voters who may have been concerned about whether Trump, a thrice-married former Democrat, would stand up for their interests. 

Vance’s selection is revealing of just how much of a hold Trump has on the Republican Party in ways he did not during his previous stint in 2016, said Howell.

“The populist base that he was trying to kindle has now taken over the entire party, and we see that in his selection of JD Vance,” he added. 

Noting that Trump’s arrival at the convention was met with rapturous applause from his party, Howell said that the contrast with Trump’s rival and current President Joe Biden’s relationship with his party “couldn't be much greater”.

Amid recent public gaffes and questions over how fit the 81-year-old is to lead the country for another four years, Biden is “holding on for dear life against all kinds of calls from within his party to step down”, Howell added.

However, with the attack on Trump dominating headlines and the momentum in trying to get Biden to bow out of the race slowing down, it is unlikely that the Democrats will reach a critical mass to push for him to step down, said Allen.

Eurasia Group dropped the odds of Biden removing himself from the race from 35 per cent to 20 per cent in the wake of the attack, Allen added.

WILL THE CALL FOR UNITY CONTINUE?

After the assassination attempt, there were powerful calls for unity and healing in the US, including from House Speaker Mike Johnson and in Biden’s Oval Office address. 

Trump also said he was revising his acceptance speech to emphasise national unity, rather than highlight his differences with Biden. 

Trump is due to formally accept the party's nomination in a prime-time speech on Thursday.

However the spirit of unity is not likely to continue, said Allen. He noted that even while such messages were coming out, some – notably Vance – were amplifying the partisan division. 

Vance had said that the attempted assassination was the result of democratic messaging. 

Despite Trump saying he will emphasise national unity, there is unlikely to be a message on cooling the temperature or coming together as a country, said Howell. He added that politically speaking, it has been an “extraordinarily favourable couple of weeks” for Trump.

“This is for him a moment of ascendance, and he's going to do everything he can to make the most of it,” he said. 

Describing Trump as a “master politician”, Allen said it would be beneficial for Trump to highlight that he is responding to the attack. 

“Certainly, his address will focus heavily on the events of this weekend because they do paint a picture of him now as this Lazarus-like candidate, as well as draw a pretty powerful distinction to President Biden,” he added.