Trump still likely Republican nominee for president in 2024, despite debate no-show

Former United States president Donald Trump is still the likely Republican nominee to run for the White House in 2024, despite his no-show – again – at the party’s second primary debate, observers told CNA on Friday (Sep 29). 

This is also in spite of his Republican rivals performing better than they did at the first debate last month, they added. 

“The issue is that relatively, even if they had an okay night, they didn't break out from the pack and they didn't provide an overwhelming reason to reject Donald Trump among Republicans,” said campaign and public affairs consultant Craig Varoga, a fellow at the American University's Center for Congressional & Presidential Studies.

Most polls are showing that Mr Trump is still holding a steady lead, and none of his other opponents have seen a breakthrough, said Dr Jacob Neiheisel, associate professor of political science at the University at Buffalo. 

“It's not even close at this point,” he told CNA’s World Tonight. 

“I didn't see anything that's fundamentally going to change the nature of this race, which is everyone’s really looking to play for second best.”

SECOND REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY DEBATE

On Wednesday, seven US presidential hopefuls tussled over immigration, China and the economy at the second Republican primary debate. They also slammed frontrunner Trump, who is battling multiple criminal cases, for skipping both debates. 

The candidates at the Republican debate include Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley, political newcomer Vivek Ramaswamy, former vice president Mike Pence, former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott and North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum.

“It was a mess. They were talking over each other. They were fighting for time. It was noisy,” Mr Varoga told CNA938. 

“I think the one thing you can be pretty confident about is that the eventual Republican nominee was not on that stage. It still is probably Donald Trump.” 

COULD GLENN YOUNGKIN RUN?

Observers believe some of the candidates could drop out of the race soon, as they are likely not going to have sufficient donor funds to support their campaign. 

“The field probably will reduce in the next couple of months,” said Mr Varoga, adding that big money GOP donors are pushing for Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin to enter the presidential race as an alternative to Mr Trump. 

“But Youngkin is going to confront the same problem that the rest of them have confronted, which is that a majority of Republican voters like Donald Trump.”

Mr Youngkin, a popular Republican governor, has not formally thrown his hat in the ring. 

“I think the donors who were sort of swooning over Youngkin right now are the same ones who a year ago were swooning over DeSantis. I think that they just want somebody other than Donald Trump,” said Mr Varoga. 

“And they seem to have been wrong about DeSantis. I think they're probably wrong about Youngkin, but that will take another couple of months because he's not a candidate yet.”

At the end of the debate, there was more than one winner and they were not on the stage, he added. 

“(Democrat President) Joe Biden looked good, because it was a mess. Donald Trump preserves his lead by not having participated.”

Mr Biden announced his re-election bid in April. 

TRUMP’S NO-SHOW

Instead of attending the debate, Mr Trump met auto industry workers in the politically-crucial state of Michigan, where there will likely be a tough battle for blue-collar votes.

“It’s perhaps baffling to outside observers, but Donald Trump has shown that he has this real populist appeal that has been increasingly important to folks who are maybe blue-collar workers,” said Dr Neiheisel. 

Typically, candidates would try to win over the middle class vote in the debate. 

“That's largely because so many Americans believe that they're in the middle class, whether they actually are or not,” said Dr Neiheisel. 

“And so they're going to have to make these overtures, even if their policies aren't necessarily reflective of things that would help what we would think of as the middle class.”

IMPEACHMENT INQUIRY AGAINST BIDEN

Meanwhile, Republicans led an impeachment inquiry against President Biden on Thursday. They listed foreign payments to his family members in their first hearing, but did not give evidence that Mr Biden had personally benefited. 

The initial impeachment hearing by the US House of Representatives Oversight Committee served as a review of evidence that Republicans have gathered about foreign business ventures by Mr Biden's troubled son Hunter Biden, who now faces gun charges after years of struggling with drug and alcohol addiction.

“I don't see it going terribly far unless there's something that they're going to unveil that we haven't seen before. Unlike the two impeachments of Donald Trump, I just don't know that there's enough there,” said Dr Neiheisel. 

“They're probably going through the motions here in large part, because the most active (and) the most conservative part of their base wants them to do something. So it probably isn't going to go very far… but it certainly could be a showpiece for them.”

LOOMING GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN

The impeachment inquiry comes at a time when the US is racing to avoid a government shutdown. 

Republican US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Wednesday rejected a stopgap funding bill advancing in the Senate, bringing Washington closer to its fourth partial shutdown in a decade.  

This would lead to the disruption of government services and the furlough of hundreds of thousands of federal workers. 

Dr John Aughenbaugh, associate professor of political science at the Virginia Commonwealth University, said the shutdown is pretty much “inevitable, simply because there is so much work to be done”. 

“So unless the House of Representatives is willing to compromise at the last moment, it doesn't appear that the United States Senate is even remotely interested in tackling any of the fiscal year appropriations Bills,” he told CNA’s Asia First. 

Yet, in the event of a shutdown, the GOP could well be the side on the losing end. 

This comes as many Americans believe passing a Budget to fund the operations of the government is important, and tougher decisions could be made after, said Dr Aughenbaugh.

“At least in the last roughly three or four federal government shutdowns in the United States, the Republican Party typically suffers the most.”