Sister or daughter? A look at who could succeed North Korean leader Kim Jong Un

SEOUL: Last month, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s young daughter Ju Ae – and his possible successor – made her first public appearance outside of the hermit kingdom.

The girl, who is believed to be around 13 years old, accompanied her father at a grand military parade in Beijing to mark the anniversary of the end of World War II.

Her existence was first publicly revealed in 2022 by North Korean state media, which published photos of the father-and-daughter pair holding hands in front of a giant intercontinental ballistic missile. She has appeared at several events since then.

Analysts believe her public prominence in recent years means Kim Jong Un has marked her as his designated successor, which would make her the first woman to serve as supreme leader.

Their trip to China appears to have cemented that, according to South Korean lawmakers who cited the country’s spy agency.

“I believe … that the daughter has been shown publicly almost 30 times since November 2022, often at military venues like a missile factory or military parade and so on,” North Korea scholar Sung-yoon Lee told CNA.

“That's clearly sending the message to the world that she will inherit Kim Jong Un's power one day,” added Lee, a principal research fellow at the Sejong Institute who has provided advice to the United States government on North Korean affairs.

Lee drew similarities between Ju Ae’s first appearance, where she “looked like a little girl”, and her father’s appearances when he first took power in 2012.

“He looked very awkward, a bit nervous … but we see now, his mannerism, body language, he looks very at ease with his stature,” Lee noted.

“(Ju Ae) appears more comfortable in her role now almost three years after her awkward international debut … so she's clearly being groomed and becoming more mature. 

"I think one has to conclude that this is an effort on the part of the Kim regime to project to the world that she is the next leader one day.”

KIM YO JONG

But Lee noted that Ju Ae will not be able to rule the country until she reaches adulthood.

This means her aunt and Kim Jong Un’s sister, Kim Yo Jong, is the only family member capable enough to take over if necessary, he said.

North Korea has been ruled by the Kim family for three generations since state founder Kim Il Sung in 1948.

Kim Yo Jong is now the closest aide to her brother. She has been a prominent North Korean official for about a decade, frequently giving hawkish comments like threatening South Korea and the US with nuclear retaliation.

She was also closely involved in the historic 2018 summit in Singapore between her brother and US President Donald Trump.

North Korea watchers have named her as a potential successor as well, though some say Ju Ae increasingly appears to be preferred over her.

If Kim Jong Un were to exit the stage within the next few years, it would be “completely weird” for his teenage daughter to pretend to be the supreme leader of a sovereign state, Lee said.

“It would be unnatural, and perhaps that might trigger condemnation or even an uprising. It's not in the interest of the Kim regime to anoint a teenager as the supreme leader, who might have to receive a visiting head of state from Russia or China or other countries.”

Lee, who profiled Kim Yo Jong in his 2023 book The Sister: The extraordinary story of Kim Yo Jong, the most powerful woman in North Korea, said he thinks she has the “absolute full trust” of her brother.

He noted that the siblings constantly look at each other during high-profile public events and send signals like nodding or smiling at each other.

“They’re constantly in communication, it seems,” he added.

“Until Kim Jong Un's daughter comes of age - until she reaches maturity, the age of, say, mid-20s or so - I think Kim Yo Jong is the only capable, qualified member of the family to hold the ship together.”

As for whether Kim Yo Jong would be willing to hand over power to her niece, Lee said the possibility that she wants to stay on cannot be ruled out.

Previous killings of Kim family members might “compel her to be more discreet and try to stay in power”, he added.

For example, Kim Jong Un’s and Kim Yo Jong’s uncle Jang Song-thaek was stripped of all his posts and executed in 2013.

“The Kim siblings conspired to shame their uncle and to press charges, all kinds of charges, not only treason, but also womanising and so on, being pro-China and so on, and had him humiliated, tortured and killed,” Lee noted.

ARE FEMALE HEIRS ACCEPTABLE?

Another aspect to this is whether North Korea – the only country to have carried out father-to-son succession twice – will accept a female supreme leader, given its Confucian values where male dominance has been the norm.

Lee said that while it will be unprecedented, the Kims’ overriding concern is that power remains within the family.

“Many people say it's an impossibility, or the people won't accept that. I disagree humbly,” he added.

Kim Jong Un has also been rumoured to have a son, but some analysts have rubbished the idea.

Lee pointed out that Kim Jong Un has never told former American basketball star Dennis Rodman, who forged an unlikely friendship with the North Korean leader in 2013 and visited him several times since then, about having a son.

“Besides Mr Rodman, people who have met Kim Jong Un have never said one word about having heard from Kim Jong Un himself or his wife, anything about their boy, their son,” Lee added.