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Analysis: As chances of a Trump 2.0 presidency shoot up, how ready are Southeast Asian states?

Observers believe former United States president Donald Trump, who's contesting the presidential election again, has boosted his chances of winning after how he reacted to an assassination attempt.

Analysis: As chances of a Trump 2.0 presidency shoot up, how ready are Southeast Asian states?
Donald Trump (left) and incumbent Joe Biden (right) are vying to be the US’ next president. (Photos: Reuters/Elizabeth Frantz, AP/Gerald Herbert)
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SINGAPORE: Southeast Asian countries will be more prepared than before to manage ties with the United States should former president Donald Trump win a second term, as his chances rise after surviving an assassination attempt, regional experts say.

This is because of what countries in the region have learnt from his time in office between 2017 and 2021 - his more volatile and unpredictable style of policy making, and his penchant for unilateral actions compared to incumbent US President Joe Biden, they say.

And while some in the region will worry about Trump 2.0, not all of them will perceive a major difference in whether a Republican or Democrat becomes the US’ next commander-in-chief, analysts say. This is because of certain fundamental factors such as US-China strategic competition and protectionist measures that are already at play.

Data points such as ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute’s 2024 State of Southeast Asia Survey show that many Southeast Asian countries “remain anxious about a rising and more assertive China and want to see strong US regional leadership and engagement in Southeast Asia”, said the institute’s senior fellow Lee Sue-Ann.

But the way the US election is currently playing out “gives the region little confidence”, she said, referring to divisions among Democrats about the viability of Mr Biden’s bid, and fears of further election-related violence following the shooting at Trump’s rally.

Trump’s chances of winning the US presidential race are widely acknowledged to have improved after the assassination attempt at a Pennsylvania rally last Saturday (Jul 13). 

After he was shot in the ear by a 20-year-old man who was subsequently killed by law enforcement officers, he raised his fist with an American flag in the background before being ushered offstage by Secret Service officers.

Trump surrounded by Secret Service agents after he was shot at a campaign rally on Jul 13, 2024, in Pennsylvania. (Photo: AP/Evan Vucci)

“The image of Trump emerging, fist in the air, blood on his face, could well seal the deal,” wrote international relations expert Robert Kelly of South Korea’s Pusan National University in a CNA commentary.

Swing voters will be a key segment swayed by Trump’s show of strength after being shot, said Dr Kaewkamol Pitakdumrongkit, a senior fellow at Singapore’s S Rajaratnam School of International Studies and head of its Centre for Multilateralism Studies.

“What Trump tried to project is that he is a strong leader, which is actually a good play against Biden especially after the first presidential debate,” she said. Mr Biden's poor performance at the Jun 27 CNN debate raised questions about his cognitive health and led to growing calls for him to drop out of the race.

Polls done after the debate showed Trump – who was convicted in May of falsifying business records to cover up hush money paid to a porn star – with a marginal lead over Mr Biden, who has maintained he will remain in the contest.

In the 2020 election, Mr Biden won with 306 Electoral College votes to Trump’s 232. Mr Biden received 51.3 per cent of the popular vote, ahead of his rival's 46.8 per cent.

US Vice President Kamala Harris (right) has been identified as a potential replacement if Mr Biden drops out of the race. (File photo: AP/ Patrick Semansky)

MORE PRECARIOUS FOR INDO-PACIFIC

A second Trump term may be more unpredictable than the first, said political scientist Chong Ja Ian of the National University of Singapore.

“Trump seems angrier this time around and many of the people who kept US policy on a more even keel during the first Trump administration will not be around for a second Trump administration,” he said.

Respected figures who resigned or were ousted during Trump’s term include Mr James Mattis, who was defence secretary, and Mr HR McMaster, who was national security adviser.

Trump himself has spoken about “retribution” if he wins again. News outlets have reported on his allies’ plans to fill the White House and government agencies with lawyers who would not challenge the expansion of presidential power, among other things.

A second Trump administration could see the US being “more confrontational” economically while being more isolationist on the foreign policy front, said Associate Professor Chong.

This could further undermine the remaining international rules that help support stability and prosperity in Southeast Asia and beyond.”
One of Southeast Asia’s worries about Trump 2.0 is his preference for unilateral action instead of multilateral collaborations, including when it comes to China, analysts say.

“He thinks about dealing with China in a way that is very transactional, that is more, ‘I don’t need other countries to help me compete with or counter China. I know America’s great and America can do that on its own, and it doesn’t need to help other countries to accomplish that objective’,” said Dr Aries Arugay, a visiting senior fellow at ISEAS.

In 2020 when he was president, Trump wanted allies Japan and South Korea to pay more for the hosting of US troops, and for South Korea to pay more for the US’ “nuclear umbrella” deterrence, for instance.

In contrast, under President Biden, the US sealed a three-way security pact with Japan and South Korea in 2023 with threats from China and North Korea in mind. 

Mr Biden said “walking away from the rest of the world leaves us weaker, not stronger. America is strong with our allies and our alliances and that’s why we will endure”, reported The New York Times.

(from left) Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, US President Joe Biden and Japan Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at a trilateral summit in Washington. (Photo: Getty Images North America/AFP/Andrew Harnik)

In the Philippines – where tensions have been growing with China over South China Sea claims – Dr Arugay said there is concern that the US, under Trump, may not pay much attention to the alliance.

The Philippines is a key Washington ally, and Trump’s 2017 to 2021 term raises the possibility that the US could be “basically non-present” in supporting the defence and security needs and interests of the region if he becomes president again, said Dr Arugay.

“In terms of Indo-Pacific stability, a second Trump term will likely be more precarious than if Biden wins a second term,” he said.

TRADE SURPLUSES COULD BECOME A TARGET

On the trade front, Trump has pledged tariffs – a blanket 10 per cent on all imports, and 60 per cent or more on Chinese goods – to incentivise domestic production if he becomes president again. 

Southeast Asian countries with big trade surpluses with the US, such as Vietnam and Thailand, could become a target for Trump, noted Dr Pitakdumrongkit.

In Southeast Asia, Vietnam has the biggest trade surplus with the US, amounting to US$104 billion in 2023. The figure was only surpassed by China, the European Union and Mexico, according to US data cited by Reuters.

Thailand’s trade surplus with the US was US$29.37 billion in 2023, according to the Thai government.

These surpluses raise the possibility of Trump slapping tariffs on Vietnamese or Thai products, or the US making the two countries sign an agreement pledging to ramp up imports from the US, said Dr Pitakdumrongkit.

Southeast Asia will also feel the heat if US-China tensions ratchet up, said Ms Lee.

“To the extent that a Trump administration would force Southeast Asian countries to make binary choices on trading and doing business with China especially involving sensitive emerging sectors or technologies, some Southeast Asian countries could find themselves increasingly squeezed,” she said.

Substantial Chinese investment in Indonesia, in sectors like minerals, will likely spark concerns for a Trump administration, a researcher from the think tank Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) told the news outlet Jakarta Globe earlier this year.

Indonesia has the world's largest nickel reserves. (AP Photo/Dita Alangkara)

UNCERTAINTIES AND HARD TRUTHS

That said, experts note that some countries in the region may not perceive or foresee a significant difference in ties whether a Democrat or Republican becomes the next US president.

This is because of certain structural issues, as well as uncertainties in some countries.

Indonesia will inaugurate its next president Prabowo Subianto in October, and “there is still a lot of uncertainty with regards to his foreign policy projections” – what sort of relationship he would seek with Indonesia’s major partners, be it the US, Japan, China or other countries, said Dr Shafiah Muhibat, CSIS Indonesia’s deputy executive director for research.

A Trump win in November may not have “significant impact” on Indonesia’s ties with the US, she said. “Bilateral relations have had their ups and downs – that is the constant, whoever is at the helm,” she said.

When Mr Barack Obama was president, there was “euphoria” in Indonesia because he had spent part of his childhood in the country, Dr Shafiah recalled. Indonesia hoped it would mean a better relationship between both countries. 

“But it turns out, it’s the same thing, it’s business as usual. Yes, we do have cooperation on a lot of issues. But on some other issues, we’re still lacking close cooperation.”

As much as some people in Southeast Asia want more US involvement in the region, “if what they’re doing is actually provoking China to be more assertive in the South China Sea, then that backfires on our need for a more stable region”, she explained.

While Trump’s diplomatic engagements with Southeast Asian countries as president were indeed episodic and not as frequent as the region would have liked, in substance, the US maintained a presence to keep “vital sea lines of communication open”, noted Ms Lee.

“It may be useful to remember that under the Trump administration, the US’ freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea had in fact hit a record high, and has since dwindled under Biden,” she said.

“On this front, we should give credit to the Trump administration where it is due.”

Israel’s war in Gaza could also limit how far some Southeast Asian countries can go in further cooperation with the US, said Ms Lee. 

ISEAS’ State of Southeast Asia survey shows there has been a sharp increase in anti-US sentiments in Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei, three countries in the region with majority-Muslim populations.

A man wears stickers of Palestinian and Indonesian flags during a rally in support of the Palestinians in Jakarta in 2023. (AP Photo/Dita Alangkara)

The uncertainty is how the three states will deal with a Trump presidency, given his voter base is “probably more inclined to take a stronger pro-Israel stance than Biden on the ongoing war in Gaza”, she noted.

Southeast Asia also has to face some “hard truths about US leadership in the region” regardless of who is president, said Ms Lee. 

Its domestic politics have become more polarised and dysfunctional, its protectionist mood is here to stay, and its strategic competition with China will only intensify and will move into new domains and critical sectors, she noted.

In June, for example, US tariffs on certain solar products from four Southeast Asian countries – Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam – took effect to tackle what officials said were efforts by some Chinese firms to dodge American tariffs by routing solar panels through other countries.

“Industrial policy, therefore, is here to stay,” said Ms Lee.

HOW SOUTHEAST ASIA CAN PREPARE ITSELF

The region can prepare for a potential second Trump presidency in several ways, experts say.

Countries can double down on efforts to deepen regional economic integration to become a more attractive place for investment and trade, said Dr Pitakdumrongkit.

Should Trump pull the US out of any regional trade or economic agreements if he becomes president, countries can engage the US through bilateral means and identify common interests to propel collaboration in areas like sustainable development, innovation or the digital economy, she said.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) should also continue to uphold ASEAN centrality and an international rules-based order for its own benefit, she added.

Dr Shafiah said ASEAN should find ways to make itself more “relevant to the major powers’ interests”.

“So far, ASEAN has not done its homework in terms of making this institution more relevant to current global challenges,” she said.

“We are still doing business as usual, meetings after meetings, and I don’t think that sort of format is appealing to a lot of our major dialogue partners including the US,” she said.

But there are “no easy answers” to changing the status quo because of the way ASEAN bureaucracy is designed, she added.

The ASEAN-Japan Commemorative Summit Meeting in Tokyo in Dec 2023. The regional bloc should find ways to make itself more “relevant to the major powers’ interests”, says an analyst. (Photo: David Mareuil/ POOL/AFP)

Dr Arugay said ASEAN can diversify its relationships, and its members can “see the agency of middle powers”.

This month, the Philippines signed a reciprocal access agreement with Japan to boost defence cooperation.

A commitment first made in 2022, the pact allows Filipino soldiers to undergo joint combat training with their counterparts in Japan and is “proof that the Marcos administration is not simply relying on the US to do everything”, he said.

The relationship with Japan “didn’t just happen because of Chinese aggression in the West Philippine Sea”, he said, using the Philippines’ term for parts of the South China Sea that are within its exclusive economic zone. 

“There’s a lot of goodwill and momentum already built … in the past few years, given the changing geopolitical calculus in the region,” he said.

The Philippines has also forged memoranda of defence cooperation with countries like Sweden, Canada, France and the United Kingdom, he noted. “So, the Philippines is not putting all its eggs in the US strategic basket (even though) the US is still the power to rely on.”

While the current winds appear to be in Trump’s favour, analysts are quick to point out things could change in the coming months.

“We have to see how this momentum will be kept alive and used to strengthen Trump’s campaign further. And we have to look at Biden’s campaign, what new approaches it will come up with to show that Biden is the president that the US needs,” said Dr Pitakdumrongkit.

Additional reporting by Darrelle Ng

Source: CNA/cc
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