China's August export growth slowest in 6 months, missing forecasts
Chinese producers are trying to export more to markets in Asia, Africa and Latin America to offset the impact of Donald Trump's tariffs, but no other country comes even close to US consumption power.
A crane loads a shipping container into a truck at an automated container port in Tianjin, China on Aug 29, 2025. (File photo: AP/Mahesh Kumar A.)
BEIJING: China's export growth slowed to a six-month low in August, as a brief boost from a tariff truce with the United States faded, but demand elsewhere provided officials some relief as they try to underpin an economy facing low domestic demand and external risks.
Policymakers are counting on manufacturers to diversify into other markets in the wake of US President Donald Trump's erratic trade policy, enabling them to delay rolling out additional fiscal support in the fourth quarter.
Outbound shipments from China rose 4.4 per cent year-on-year in August, customs data showed on Monday (Sep 8), missing a forecast 5 per cent increase in a Reuters poll and marking the slowest growth in six months. They compared with July's better-than-expected 7.2 per cent increase.
Imports grew 1.3 per cent, following 4.1 per cent growth a month earlier. Economists had predicted a 3.0 per cent rise.
"I would say the number is still decent, and the resilience of exports has certainly lasted longer than we had expected," said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
Trump's tariff threats pose a stern test to China's export-oriented economy, but policymakers are loathe to implement difficult but much-needed economic reforms under external pressure, analysts say.
The world's two largest economies agreed on Aug 11 to extend their tariff truce for another 90 days, locking in place US levies of 30 per cent on Chinese imports and 10 per cent Chinese duties on US goods, but they appear to be struggling to chart a path beyond the current pause.
Once Trump's tariffs top 35 per cent, they become prohibitively high for Chinese exporters, economists warn.
A visit by senior Chinese trade negotiator Li Chenggang to Washington late last month yielded little of substance.
"Exports are holding up well so far," said Dan Wang, director for China at Eurasia Group.
"Shipments to the US are down, but other routes are even better than last year. Lots of exports are also tied to Chinese factories going overseas and importing raw materials and other inputs from China," she added.
China's exports to the US fell 33.1 per cent year-on-year in August, the customs data showed, while its shipments to Southeast Asian nations rose 22.5 per cent in the same period.
Chinese producers are trying to export more to markets in Asia, Africa and Latin America to offset the impact of Trump's tariffs, but no other country comes even close to US consumption power, which once absorbed over US$400 billion of Chinese goods annually.
And with Trump in July threatening a 40 per cent penalty tariff on goods deemed to be transshipped from China to the US to evade his earlier levies, how long Chinese factory owners can continue to find buyers that way remains to be seen.
China's August trade surplus came in at US$102.3 billion, from US$98.24 billion in June, but still well below June's US$114.7 billion.
Analysts are watching to see whether officials will roll out additional fiscal support in the fourth quarter to spur domestic demand.
But policymakers seem to be exercising tighter control over their flagship "cash-for-clunkers" programme and did not rush to replenish funds after several local governments recently ran through the allocation set aside for the scheme.
