General Election likely to be called by year-end, May handover will give next PM 'good runway': Analysts

SINGAPORE: Singapore could go to the polls by year-end and as early as September, analysts said after it was announced that Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong will take over the top job on May 15.

A year-end election will give the Prime Minister-to-be a long enough “runway” so that his team can settle in, but also be soon enough such that his leadership can potentially get a mandate from Singaporeans amid a challenging geopolitical climate, political analysts said.

Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said in November last year during the yearly convention of the ruling People's Action Party (PAP) that he intended to step down before November this year, and also by the next election, which must be held by November 2025. 

Dr Leong Chan-Hoong, a senior fellow for social cohesion research at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University, said that next month is a “good time” for the leadership transition. 

This is because it would give Mr Wong some time to prepare for the next General Election (GE), which will likely happen at the end of the year, he said.

“There have been a lot of regional and global uncertainties in the last six months or so, it makes sense to let the next generation of leaders determine how Singapore can navigate around all these challenges. 

“Being able to find a suitable window and pass the baton to DPM Wong is crucial so they can prepare Singaporeans for the challenges ahead.” 

Dr Felix Tan, an independent political observer, said that after Mr Wong’s succession to Prime Minister next month, it could be about six months before the election is held. 

That would mean the GE takes place around the end of the year, though he said a September election was possible.

The quick calling of a GE could be possible because preparations for it would not begin on May 15, said Dr Leong. Instead, they have been going on for the last two to three years since it was clear that Mr Wong would eventually succeed Mr Lee. 

For instance, Mr Wong’s Forward Singapore exercise has given clues as to his leadership, with several policies resulting from the exercise announced during his Budget statement last month. 

“(The handover) is a process that has been ongoing for a very long period of time, it’s constantly revised and updated accordingly, and if you look at what DPM Wong has done in the last two to three years, you can see that it’s really preparing not just for the next GE, but for the future to come,” said Dr Leong. 

Political observer Inderjit Singh said that the significance of a handover next month is not just about giving Mr Wong a longer runway, but also in securing an electoral mandate as soon as possible. 

“I think the significance of this announcement is not so much of giving Mr Wong a longer runway, but more of letting him and the 4G team seek their mandate at the coming GE,” said Mr Singh, a former Member of Parliament from the PAP.

“I think the GE could be sooner than later, before the end of the year, so the runway is not really that long anyway.” 

He added that waiting until “SG60” – the 60th year of the nation’s independence – to hold the election may not be the best move. 

He said that the longer-term problems that Singaporeans may face, such as the cost of living and availability of housing, cannot be solved soon, and that the global outlook continues to be uncertain. 

“On the back of a good Budget for the short term, it may not be useful to wait longer till next year,” he said. 

September to November is “one possible window” for the GE to take place, but Assistant Professor Elvin Ong from the National University of Singapore said he would not rule out the possibility of the election taking place early next year.

“Maybe just after Budget, perhaps?” he said.

“This year’s Budget seems to have mixed reviews, some say oh, it is like an election Budget, some say it is not. So it is kind of unclear.”

WHAT ARE SOME SIGNS THAT THE GE MAY BE COMING? 

One clue to watch out for regarding when the GE will be could be the tone of this year’s National Day Rally (NDR), which will be Mr Wong’s first as Prime Minister. 

Mr Singh said that there is a strong possibility that the NDR, held at the end of August, would be a “GE NDR”, or one that is primed for sweetening the ground before the election. 

“If he calls for elections after the NDR - which I expect - then this will be a GE NDR,” said Mr Singh. 

“(He could be) announcing more initiatives, support and plans to cover areas not covered in this year’s Budget that people still are concerned about, and also to share that at Budget 2025, he will promise to do more should he get a good mandate.” 

A “clearer signal” that GE is coming is when the Elections Department forms the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee (EBRC), said Dr Tan, the independent political observer. 

The committee, which is made up of senior civil servants with relevant domain knowledge, recommends the boundaries of electoral divisions.

After the committee is formed, it would take a few months for them to produce a report, and then the election can take place, he said.

The EBRC was last convened in August 2019, ahead of the General Election in July 2020. The White Paper on the Report of the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee 2020 was released in March 2020.

In February, Minister for Education Chan Chun Sing said in a written response to a parliamentary question that the EBRC, which determines the electoral boundaries for future general elections, has not been convened yet.