Cabinet reshuffle could take place in coming weeks; several names mooted as possible DPMs

SINGAPORE: A new Cabinet could be sworn in along with Mr Lawrence Wong when he takes over as Singapore's fourth Prime Minister on May 15.

That's the view of some political observers who said a Cabinet reshuffle could be announced in advance, before Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong officially hands over to Mr Wong, his current deputy.

There are precedents for this in past leadership successions, noted political observer Inderjit Singh, a former Member of Parliament.

In 1990, for instance, the new Cabinet was announced more than a month before Mr Goh Chok Tong became the Prime Minister. Similarly in 2004, a reshuffle was announced two days before Mr Lee Hsien Loong succeeded Mr Goh.

“I expect the Cabinet reshuffle to happen before or when (Mr Wong) takes over as PM on May 15,” said Mr Singh, who was an MP when Mr Lee became the Prime Minister.

This was a view shared by Assistant Professor Elvin Ong from the National University of Singapore's (NUS) Department of Political Science.

“On May 15, we will definitely be looking forward to the swearing-in of the rest of the Cabinet as well,” he said.

DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER CANDIDATES

With Mr Wong set to become Prime Minister, political observers said Law and Home Affairs Minister K Shanmugam, Education Minister Chan Chun Sing and Health Minister Ong Ye Kung could be suitable candidates to replace him as Deputy Prime Minister.

Rather than having two new names, current Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat could well retain his position in Mr Wong’s new Cabinet, said Dr Leong Chan-Hoong, a senior fellow for social cohesion research at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University.

“DPM Heng Swee Keat has certainly done a great job to oversee economic challenges, I won’t be surprised if he remains as DPM who oversees economic development even after the Cabinet reshuffle,” he added.

Defence is also important for Singapore, and whoever succeeds Mr Wong as Deputy Prime Minister will likely have experience in that area, said independent political observer Felix Tan.

He suggested that Mr Chan could be a potential candidate, having served in the Singapore Armed Forces from 1987 to 2011 before joining politics.

Asst Prof Ong, however, said there has been speculation about Mr Shanmugam becoming a Deputy Prime Minister in charge of security.

He noted that Coordinating Minister for National Security Teo Chee Hean previously served as Deputy Prime Minister.

“Either Senior Minister or Deputy Prime Minister - I think Minister Shanmugam would be an appropriate candidate," said Asst Prof Ong.

Mr Singh, the former MP, said that Mr Shanmugam would be a good candidate due to his links to both the 3G and the 4G leadership.

“It is useful to have some continuity in the new team, and Mr Shanmugam can be that person providing the bridge,” he said.

Mr Ong could also be in the running for Deputy Prime Minister because he worked closely with Mr Wong on the COVID-19 task force, said Asst Prof Ong.

Assuming they had a good working relationship, Mr Ong would be an “appropriate candidate” for the role, he added.

It would also be interesting to see which senior ministers step down and which junior ministers get promoted, the analysts said.

Asst Prof Ong highlighted Senior Minister Teo Chee Hean and Minister for Defence Ng Eng Hen as being among the longest-serving ministers in the Cabinet.

“If there’s any stepping down, we would expect them to be the ones to step down … I think those are the two most likely ones,” he said.

WHAT WILL PM LEE DO NEXT? 

Mr Lee will most likely stay in Cabinet and play the role of a mentor to younger MPs and political office holders, the analysts said.

“We can expect Mr Lee to play an important role in the new Cabinet, perhaps as a Minister Mentor,” said Mr Singh.

Founding Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew was appointed Senior Minister in 1990 when Mr Goh took over as Prime Minister. When Mr Goh was named a Senior Minister in 2004, the late Mr Lee then took on the role of Minister Mentor.

"I think our leaders are pragmatic, they don’t just hand over and leave the scene,” Mr Singh added. 

“Neither do the new leaders want to lose the expertise of the previous leadership immediately after taking over.” 

Dr Gillian Koh, senior fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS), believes that Mr Lee will become Senior Minister. 

“He still has important social capital among regional and global leaders that Singapore would do well to tap,” she said. 

In an increasingly uncertain geopolitical climate, it would be important for Mr Lee to provide a guiding hand to the new leadership team, Dr Leong added.

“It would be good to have somebody who is more senior and more experienced in the Cabinet as a Senior Minister or as a Minister Mentor and to give advice to the younger ministers,” he said. 

“Having PM Lee on board … it will be for the benefit of the 4G and as well as Singaporeans.” 

Dr Tan said Mr Lee will remain a reliable and significant person in parliament.

“He’s not going to retire from politics completely anyway,” he said. “He’s just passing the baton over.”