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Imagine a photo of Donald Trump in handcuffs: What could happen next?

The former US president is expected to fly to New York to turn himself in early next week, and be arraigned in court.

Imagine a photo of Donald Trump in handcuffs: What could happen next?

Former US President Donald Trump in Florida on Mar 25, 2023. (File photo: AP/Evan Vucci)

SINGAPORE: Despite interest in how former United States President Donald Trump could be taken into custody over criminal charges he faces, the public is unlikely to get to see him led away in handcuffs, analysts said.

“He will be arrested and I think that they will make that effort, I'm sure they will, not to do things like put him in handcuffs,” said political scientist Charles Lipson from the University of Chicago.

“He's already surrounded by Secret Service protection. There's no chance he's going to escape or do anything like that.”

Professor Emeritus Lipson was speaking to CNA’s Asia First hours after news broke on Friday of Trump's indictment by a Manhattan grand jury, following a probe into hush money paid to porn star Stormy Daniels.

The former reality TV star turned president is expected to fly to New York to turn himself in early next week and be arraigned in court.

Trump has indicated that he wants to be photographed in handcuffs - and if he indeed is, the 2024 presidential hopeful will seize the opportunity to drive his message home, said Mr Steven Okun, senior advisor at McLarty Associates, which provides diplomatic solutions.

“He is going to use this to his advantage to try and once again become the Republican nominee for president for the third time in a row. And all indications are that this is going to help him do that because this is all anyone is going to be talking about,” Mr Okun told CNA938.

In this scenario, attention will be diverted away from his rivals in next year’s presidential race - Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley for instance - and any of their attempts to talk about geopolitical developments or domestic policy instead, he added.

Prof Lipson noted that that an immediate impact may be a solidifying of Republican support for Trump - though this has “never been his problem”.

“His problem has been to capture independent persuadable voters and those people will certainly wait to hear the evidence," said Prof Lipson.

"But whether he's convicted or not, it's not a good thing to have your name linked day after day with payments to a porn star."

This is also the first time in US history that a president - whether former or sitting - will face criminal charges.

WHAT IS TRUMP ACCUSED OF?

While the indictment remains under seal, Mr Okun offered a possible explanation for why the former president may be facing charges.

“Trump sleeping with Stormy Daniels, if that happened, is not illegal. Trump (allegedly) paying hush money to Stormy Daniels to not talk about it, is not illegal,” he said.

“What makes it illegal here is that when the money was paid to Stormy Daniels by Michael Cohen - (Trump's) lawyer - the Trump organisation at the direction of Donald Trump reimbursed Michael Cohen and did not disclose that."

"Then they claimed it as a legitimate business expense, which it was not.”

Mr Okun added that this was allegedly done on the eve of the presidential election in 2016, and to "influence" the polls - which “presumably” made the act a felony.

Prof Lipson, however, said he would be “shocked” if Trump actually spent time behind bars.

“The real problem is that we have rules in the United States that you basically can't try presidential candidates during the period - maybe a year or so - leading up to the election. So, all of this will need to move quickly,” he said.

POSSIBILITY OF VIOLENCE

Both analysts raised the possibility of Republican supporters clashing with Democrats and those from the other side of the fence.

There is “a lot of concern” that Trump's supporters would be enraged, given that 35 per cent of the Republican Party may be behind him “no matter what”, said Mr Okun.

“Is that going to teeter over into violence?” he asked.

He said there were hopes for protests of peaceful nature instead.

Prof Lipson meanwhile pointed to a "peril” of voter fatigue even among those supporting Trump.

“Many of them are already kind of tired of Trump, that they're just tired of all the tumult and controversy that surrounds him," said the analyst.

"And they're also tired of looking backwards. They want future problems solved. And I think that's a problem."

Source: CNA/ja(jo)

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