CNA Explains: What's behind the rise in popularity of Europe's far-right political parties?

SINGAPORE: For decades, extremism at either end of the political spectrum has been comparatively rare in Europe, with parties which are left or right of centre in varying degrees tending to dominate.

That has changed in recent years, with parties seen as far right shifting from the fringes to the mainstream.

For instance, far-right gains in last month's European Parliament elections have added uncertainty to Europe's future political direction, raising questions about how the European Union's (EU) major powers can drive policy in the bloc.

While the centre, liberal and Socialist parties retained a majority in the 720-seat European Parliament, the shift to the right reflected how discontent with globalisation and immigration has fuelled a conservative, populist backlash across many of the EU’s 27 countries.

At the individual nations level, far-right or populist parties currently lead Italy and Slovakia and are part of ruling coalitions in other countries such as Finland, Sweden and the Netherlands.

In last week's UK general election, while the left-leaning Labour Party won a landslide victory, plenty of attention was also on the Reform Party, led by Nigel Farage, which secured 14 per cent of the vote.

In France, it looked like Marine Le Pen's nationalist, eurosceptic National Rally (RN) could score a victory in parliamentary elections before a leftist alliance worked together to seize back the political initiative.

CNA takes a look at why parts of Europe are swinging right and the implications of this trend.

Why is Europe turning right?

A broad theme for the rising popularity of far-right parties in Europe is a "growing sense of alienation" from mainstream political parties, said Mr Luca Farrow, a senior analyst at S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS).

The mainstream parties are seen to have failed in addressing economic issues and immigration, added Mr Kalicharan Veera Singam, a senior analyst at RSIS.

The far-right parties' rise to prominence can also be owed to increasing "disillusionment" with mainstream parties, he said.

Economic growth in much of Europe has been stagnant since the 2008 global recession, further powering discontent with the status quo.

The European Parliament vote dealt a domestic blow to the leaders of both France and Germany, with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats scoring their worst result ever, suffering at the hands of the mainstream conservatives and hard-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).

The results of the vote prompted French President Emmanuel Macron, in a risky gamble to try to re-establish his authority, to call a snap national election which saw a far-right party winning the first round before the results took a surprise left turn in the second round.

The far-right story in France is not over, said Associate Professor Reuben Wong, deputy head of the political science department at the National University of Singapore (NUS).

They've been steadily making gains and the number of seats they won this election would be their biggest share, he said.

The far right has not done as well as many feared in the French parliamentary elections, though its threat should not be underestimated, said Mr Farrow.

"It’s also important to note that the growth in support for far-right parties is not uniform across Europe and support for the far right can fall as well as rise," Mr Farrow added. "The volatility of people’s recent voting decisions has been remarked upon.

With right-wing parties gaining ground on the continent, one hard-right party in the UK also claimed it started a "revolt against the establishment" after it made gains during the Jun 4 election. 

"When a figure such as Nigel Farage in the United Kingdom provides simplistic solutions and scapegoats in the form of immigrants, it seems to address people’s fears and it seems as if he is 'saying the unsayable'," said Mr Farrow.

"This is more impactful with voters who feel heard, notwithstanding that what is being said might often include a misdiagnosis of national problems and solutions which encourage scapegoating of minority 'other' groups," he added.

What's the possible impact on migration and trade?

The European parliament's most important role is reviewing and approving new legislation and the rightward shift could have a bearing on a series of important policy areas in the next five-year term.

They could include migration, trade, climate and defence.

Migration laws are likely to become harsher as more far-right voices are heard in the process of law-making, said Mr Farrow.

Meanwhile, Assoc Prof Wong noted that while the far-right’s rhetoric on immigrants has been harsh, he believes the real effect on migration policies is uncertain.

This is due to the need for cheap labour, he said, adding that countries will definitely police their borders to cut down on illegal migration but legal migration is still a practice.

If a far-right party does take power in a major European country and enacts far-right policies, this could cause problems within the EU in terms of commitments to free trade and the free movement of people between these countries, Assoc Prof Wong added.

The European Parliament has to approve free trade agreements before they can enter force and a number of trade agreements are still waiting for approval.

Among them is the Mexico and the South American bloc Mercosur.

The European Commission is also seeking to strike deals with the likes of Australia amid arguments that the bloc needs more trade agreements with reliable partners to make up for lost business with Russia and to reduce dependence on China.

All those deals, and the Mercosur agreement in particular, have faced opposition and pushing them through parliament could be even more difficult with greater numbers of nationalist eurosceptics.

What would a move to the right do to Europe's climate and defence policies?

More far-right presence could be harmful when it comes to efforts to address climate change, said Mr Farrow.

He noted that there is quite a lot of divergence and discord among the different far-right parties in Europe and within those in the European Parliament.

This makes them less likely to be able to obstruct the operation of the European Parliament, he said.

"It is more likely we will see delays to the passing of legislation and more negotiation of legislation to make it more palatable to certain far-right groups, which may involve diluting European laws," he added.

The next five years will be crucial in determining whether Europe achieves its 2030 climate change targets. The bloc spent the last five years passing a bumper package of clean energy and CO2-cutting laws to hit its 2030 targets, and those policies will be hard to undo.

It may also be harder to agree on common defence policies as some influential far-right politicians in Europe are more friendly with Putin than others, added Mr Farrow.

Some far-right leaders have been critical of the West’s military support for Ukraine, said Mr Singam.

"If the far-right parties continue to gain political ground nationally and in the EU parliament, then major shifts can be expected," he added.

"As some of these far-right parties are highly nationalistic and eurosceptic, their rise to greater political prominence could also significantly test the integrity and resilience of the regional bloc." 

Foreign and defence policy are primarily the domain of the EU's member countries, not the European Parliament but the parliament will have a role to play in plans to encourage pan-European cooperation between countries and companies on defence projects and to get governments to buy more European military kit.

For instance, the European Commission's Defence Industrial Programme, which aims to realise those goals, needs the consent of both EU governments and the European Parliament.

Why are the lines blurry between centrist and far-right parties?

The politics of the far right has been co-opted by mainstream parties, seemingly in an attempt to prevent voters from abandoning them, Mr Farrow noted.

But the effect is to further normalise far-right politics, he said.

For instance, European lawmakers approved a revamped migration system that the pro-EU political centre promises would reduce irregular arrivals in a bid to stem gains by the far right ahead of the bloc's parliamentary election in June.

At the same time, apart from cracking down on admitting migrants, Italy's right party has not made any fundamental changes to the country’s political and economic structure since coming into power.

"They’re going to be stricter on Muslim prayer and you can drive faster on the highway now," said Matthias Matthijs, a professor of international political economy at Johns Hopkins University.

"But on the big stuff — the budget, foreign policy — the only way these populists can come to power is if they stay in the centre."

This may be an example of how populists will govern in Europe, he added.