Prior to Iran attacks, CIA assessed Khamenei could be replaced by hardline IRGC elements
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in strikes on Saturday by the US and Israel.
A protester holds a portrait of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and a flag of Iran during a demonstration against the war in Iran in front of City Hall in Los Angeles, California, on Feb 28, 2026. (Photo: AFP/Etienne Laurent)
WASHINGTON: In the run-up to the United States and Israeli attacks on Saturday (Feb 28), the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) assessed that if Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the operation, he could be replaced by hardline figures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), two sources briefed on the intelligence said.
Khamenei was killed in strikes on Saturday by the US and Israel.
CIA's assessments, which were produced over the past two weeks, looked broadly at what could occur in Iran following a US intervention and the extent to which a military operation could trigger regime change in the Islamic Republic - now a pronounced objective for Washington.
IRGC figures taking power was among the multiple different scenarios that emerged, a third source familiar with the matter said.
The IRGC is an elite military force whose purpose is to protect Shi'ite Muslim clerical rule in Iran.
The intelligence agency reports did not conclude any scenario with certainty, said the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters.
The CIA declined to comment.
President Donald Trump has for weeks signalled that the US was interested in seeing regime change in Iran, but has not given any details on Washington’s thinking on who could lead the country.
In an early morning video address on Saturday, Trump described Tehran as a "terrorist regime" and encouraged the Iranian people to take over the government, saying the US military strikes would set the stage for an uprising.
The US and Israeli assault comes after weeks of deliberation inside the US government about whether to strike Iran following the deadly protests that broke out there in December.
US officials in recent weeks have tried to strike a nuclear deal with Tehran in an attempt to stave off intervention.
In a briefing last week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told top congressional lawmakers known as the Gang of Eight that a US operation would likely move forward, but that Trump could change his mind, particularly if nuclear negotiations were successful.
Those talks in Geneva did not result in an agreement.
Rubio notified the Gang of Eight on Friday night that the operation to attack Iran was likely to commence in the following hours, but said Trump could still change his mind, two sources familiar with the matter said.
