Biden’s urgent wartime aid bundle for Israel will help channel more funds to Ukraine, say observers

US President Joe Biden’s urgent wartime funding request to Congress, expected at roughly US$100 billion over the next year, will help to channel money towards Kyiv at a time when American support for more aid towards Ukraine is dwindling, observers say.

The proposal, which will be unveiled on Friday (Oct 20), includes money for Ukraine, Israel, humanitarian aid and border management, Mr Biden said during a White House speech late on Thursday.

He made the address a day after his visit to Israel to offer US support as the Middle Eastern country readies its troops for an impending ground offensive into Gaza.

“(What) President Biden (did in his speech) was an effort to make the big picture strategic case, and then drill down into the specific requests that he was going to be making to Congress,” Mr Michael Singh, managing director at think tank The Washington Institute for Near East Policy told CNA’s Asia First.

“This was his pitch for continuing American leadership and engagement overseas, and a willingness to bear the costs that go with that.”

Opinion polls by several US media showed a sizeable number of Americans were sympathetic towards the Israelis and favoured continued support. In contrast, support for sustained aid to Ukraine has diminished significantly since Russia’s invasion more than a year ago in February 2022.

Analysts said bundling the funds into one request could help ramp up support from both the public and politicians, and fast-track it through Congress.

“More aid for Israel will be very popular with Congress and with the American people. This will help get the aid to Ukraine through their package together,” said Mr Singh.

He pointed out that a lion’s share of the package will go towards Ukraine’s war chest.

Reuters, quoting a source familiar with the plan, said US$60 billion will go to Ukraine and US$14 billion to Israel. The remaining will include US$10 billion for humanitarian aid, US$14 billion for border security and $7 billion for the Indo-Pacific region.

THE CASE FOR UKRAINE

US voters tend to view terrorism as a major threat, and are more likely to back related policies, said Mr Singh. Hamas’ bloody rampage through Israeli towns on Oct 7 was labelled a “terrorist attack” by the White House.

By tying the two conflicts together, and drawing a parallel between Hamas and Russian President Vladimir Putin, Mr Biden can make a more persuasive case for Ukraine, and on US’ engagement overseas, said experts.

“Hamas and Putin represent different threats, but they share this in common: They both want to annihilate a neighbouring democracy,” the US President said during his address.

Mr Singh said: “Americans care about Israel. And they tend to care a lot about terrorism. So it's natural that President Biden will want to say these are all part of the same fight – that Americans should also care about what happens in Europe and Asia.”

WHY IS US HELPING IN WARS ABROAD?

Mr Gerald Feierstein, director of the Gulf Affairs programme at think tank Middle East Institute, said there is debate, particularly among factions of Republicans, on whether the US should continue to maintain the same level of support for Ukraine.

“The question of aid to Ukraine has been increasingly controversial and faced with increasing opposition in Congress and among voters,” he said. 

However, Mr Putin’s actions in Ukraine pose a threat to US national security, as it could spill over to member states of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which the US is also part of, he noted.

“If (Putin) succeeds in Ukraine, there's no reason to believe that he won't take on similar aggression against Poland, or against the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which are all NATO allies, which would definitely bring the US into a direct conflict with Russia,” he said.

“Hamas doesn't pose that kind of threat. While what they did was an atrocity and brutal, (the group) does not threaten Israel's existence. But we do need the two sides to sit down together and find a peaceful solution.”

US ENGAGEMENT ABROAD

With some US voters urging the White House to invest locally and focus on problems closer to home, Mr Singh said presidents "often find themselves having to make the case as to why protection and prosperity in the US requires leadership and action overseas".

“(Biden's address) was an opportunity to say this is why America's role overseas is so important, because these problems won't go away by themselves,” he said.

“The president has made this point very clearly – that if we don't confront Hamas and Putin, they won't stop, and eventually these problems will get bigger and addressing them will be costlier.”

When asked if he was successful in convincing Americans, Mr Feierstein told CNA938 that President Biden “hit all the right notes” in his address, but it remains to be seen if Congress will approve the funding request.

For one, the House of Representatives is paralysed without a Speaker and the narrow GOP majority is embroiled in a tussle over electing the next one

There are also deep divisions within the parties and among the voters, and the Israel-Hamas conflict has fanned a rise of both anti-Semitic and Islamaphobic incidents in the US in recent days.