US, German tanks ‘critical and timely’ for Ukraine ahead of expected Russian spring offensive: Analysts
Kyiv has been pressing allies for more sophisticated weapons, over fears that Russian forces are using winter to regroup before launching a new offensive in spring.
Supplies of advanced tanks from the United States and Germany come at a critical time for Ukraine, with fresh Russian assaults expected in as soon as a few weeks, analysts said.
Kyiv has been pressing allies for more sophisticated weapons to fend off Moscow, over fears that Russian forces are using winter to regroup before launching a new offensive in spring.
“The conscription of hundreds of thousands of Russian troops is going to mean that in the late winter or early spring, they are probably going to try to break the Ukrainian lines,” said Mr William Alberque, director of strategy, technology, and arms control at think tank International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
Ukraine’s military intelligence warned earlier this month that Russian President Vladimir Putin is planning for a second wave of mobilisation, in addition to the 300,000 conscripts Moscow enlisted in October.
“This is why the supply of battle tanks to Ukraine, to be able to stop any Russian offensive and to provide Ukraine with the opportunity to also go on the offensive, is so critical and timely right now,” Mr Alberque told CNA’s World Tonight on Thursday (Jan 26).
The US announced on Wednesday it will supply Ukraine with 31 advanced M1 Abrams tanks worth US$400 million.
Germany also confirmed on the same day that it will send 14 of its highly sought-after Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine, and allow other countries to do the same.
WHY ARE THESE TANKS IMPORTANT?
Ukraine sees the advanced tanks as a game changer that could break through Russian lines.
The incoming armoured vehicles are far more superior than the current Soviet-era tank fleet that Ukraine is operating on the ground at the moment.
“These new tanks are suited to cross more difficult terrain and (overcome) heavy obstacles while transporting infantry. They also are heavier and have higher firepower,” said Ms Sophie Arts, security and defence programme officer at public policy think tank German Marshall Fund of the United States.
These tanks have sturdier armour which will be able to withstand more aggressive attacks while protecting soldiers inside. They wield advanced targeting systems, and are also more agile and can manoeuvre better on the battlefield.
“These (tanks) could provide the breakthrough that Ukraine is looking for,” said Mr Alberque.
“They are built to destroy the old Soviet tanks that the Russians are relying on in Ukraine.”
The move by the US and Germany to contribute the armoured vehicles have “real practical implications and a lot of symbolic value”, Ms Arts told CNA938’s Asia First.
“It's a significant turn of events because it has really shown that the transatlantic alliance is acting as one unified front,” she said, referring to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
WHY DID GERMANY DELAY SENDING TANKS?
The tanks were finally made available for Ukraine after months of pleading by Kyiv and intense negotiations between the western allies.
Germany had been reluctant to provide its Leopard 2 tanks nor allow other nations to send them. The German-made tanks are held by a number of NATO members but require approval from Berlin before they can be transferred to other countries.
Guilt over its role in the two World Wars meant many Germans took a pacifist stance, and were wary of being seen as instigating military aggression.
“There has been a lot of hesitancy from the German government to do anything that would be perceived as escalatory. These heavier tanks could be interpreted by some as being offensive versus defensive, although that's debatable,” said Ms Arts.
Apart from Washington agreeing to send its Abrams tanks and dealing with mounting frustration from its allies, the German government also likely faced pressure from the public.
“Some in the German government have concerns that (sending the tanks) would damage longer-term relations with Russia, whereas everyone else realises that Russia has already burned that bridge and Russia has to be seen to lose in Ukraine,” Mr Alberque said.
RUSSIA'S SPRING OFFENSIVE
Washington officials said the Abrams – among the most powerful tanks in the US – will take months to be delivered to Ukraine.
Meanwhile, observers are hoping the Germans’ Leopard tanks will be transferred to Kyiv before Russia launches its next large-scale offensive.
Moscow has reacted with fury to the decision, accusing the West of escalating the war and prolonging Ukrainian suffering. It vowed the tanks will “burn like the rest”.
“Ukraine will definitely need all the help it can get and will need it fast,” said Ms Arts.
“Steps that the allies are taking right now will help provide Ukraine with the capabilities it needs to withstand a spring offensive, and then possibly even launch a counter-offensive to take back territories occupied by Russia.”
Observers said the Leopard and Abrams tanks will be vital in spring in helping Ukraine defend its territory, regain ground, and possibly negotiate a truce.
“I think we're going to see Ukraine start to win more on the battlefield, and eventually force the Russians to negotiate a peace that is more acceptable to Ukraine,” said Mr Alberque.
