Zelenskyy’s US visit sends strong signal to Moscow about American support, says former US Ambassador to Ukraine

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to the United States sends a strong signal to Moscow that American support for Ukraine is growing stronger, former US Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst said on Thursday (Dec 22).

The US pledged long-term support for Ukraine, including a new missile defence system and US$1.85 billion in new aid.

However, US President Joe Biden and his administration are showing “timidity” in their continued refusal to supply Ukraine with longer range artillery, Mr Herbst told CNA’s Asia First.

“We see the continuing timidity on the part of the administration in not giving Ukraine what it needs to succeed in this war,” he said.

Weapons with long range strike capabilities, which Ukraine has for months been pressing its allies for, are crucial in helping the country retake territories occupied by Russia, as well as stopping Iranian drone strikes being launched from Crimea, Mr Herbst said.

The whirlwind trip to Washington DC on Wednesday was the Ukrainian President’s first foreign trip since Russia's invasion in February.

Mr Herbst, who was the US Ambassador to Ukraine from 2003 to 2006, said it was important for Mr Zelenskyy to address the American public in person and solidify support for aid among Republicans in Congress.

REPUBLICAN SUPPORT

Opinions on assistance to Ukraine have been divided among Republicans, with some lawmakers pressing for reduced aid, stoking fears in Kyiv that the flow of weapons and funds could dwindle.

Mr Herbst said that the opposition voices are “ignorant about American interest”.

“Providing assistance to Ukraine at US$50 billion a year is actually a bargain,” he said.

“Because that money is destroying, chopping up the Russian military and making it far less likely American troops will have to fight and die to defend our NATO allies.”

A majority of the American public supports aid to Ukraine, and opposing figures - even within the Republicans - are a minority, said political science associate professor Maria Popova.

She added that Mr Zelenskyy’s visit likely swayed some sceptics. His speech in Congress, in particular, elicited standing ovations from house members and senators from both parties.

“What we saw during the speech in Congress … Everybody was standing up. Maybe two or three were sitting down and registering their displeasure. But the vast majority of American lawmakers seemed inspired and really respectful of this man,” Prof Popova, from McGill University, told CNA’s Asia Now.

“What really stood out was the emphasis that this is not just help to Ukraine. He managed to also emphasise that this is an investment for ordinary Americans into their security that the entire free world is under threat by Russia's aggression,” she added.

LONGER RANGE ARTILLERY

Among US military aid that Mr Zelenskyy is bringing home is the advanced Patriot air defence system, which is capable of shooting down cruise missiles and short-range ballistic missiles.

“It'll make it easier for Ukraine, at least in one area of the country, to defend its infrastructure and civilians from the massive Russian bombing campaign,” said Mr Herbst.

However, what Ukraine really wants are longer range artillery, planes and tanks, which “the Biden administration is refusing to send”, said Mr Herbst.

Analysts said that Mr Zelenskyy could try to go around President Biden and take the appeal directly to Congress, but that would risk annoying the White House.

Without the ability to strike farther behind Russian lines, it will be difficult for the Ukrainians to keep the momentum and continue gaining ground.

This will prolong the war, said observers, as among Mr Zelenskyy’s conditions for peace is the return of all Ukrainian lands seized by Russia.

“The West is continuing to supply sufficient support for Ukraine to continue resisting Russia actively, even if it's not sufficient to retake the rest of its territory militarily,” said Mr Matthew Orr, a Eurasia analyst from risk intelligence company RANE.

“For that reason, it seems to me that the war is going to continue on through next year,” he told CNA’s World Tonight.

BOLDER SUPPORT NEEDED

Fear of crossing Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invisible red line and triggering a nuclear retaliation has stopped the West from supplying Ukraine with more advanced weapons.

“There's timidity in parts of the US administration that doesn't fully understand how dangerous Putin is to us, and how much stronger we - the collective West led by the United States - are than Russia,” said Mr Herbst.

He added that the US needs to be bolder in its support of Ukraine, as he does not believe that Moscow will escalate the conflict to an extent that would directly involve the US.

“Russia does not want a conflict with the United States. Their military is not competent enough. We have not sent many of our most advanced weapons to Ukraine. Our less advanced weapons like the Himars (missiles), a technology that's 30 years old, have stopped the Russian military,” he said.

Moscow’s threats are “just bluff and not real”, Mr Herbst said, citing instances when Russia’s red lines were challenged, such as when Sweden and Finland applied to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

He added that President Biden’s refusal to send higher capability weapons to Ukraine will invite further empty threats from the Kremlin, and emphasised that Russia needs to be stopped at Ukraine’s borders.

“It’s unfortunate that President Biden today resorted to that fear in (not sending) longer range missiles to Ukraine. It does not serve American interests,” said Mr Herbst.

“America’s security and prosperity is tied up with Ukraine defeating Putin.”