‘Very volatile four years’: What Trump’s early moves say about his second US presidency

The global impact of United States President Donald Trump’s return to the White House is already being felt as he took the first steps to implement his sweeping agenda, with observers warning of more volatility in the coming years. 

Trump signed a deluge of executive orders after being sworn into his second term on Monday (Jan 20), seeking to put his stamp on matters ranging from immigration to public health. 

The directives include pulling out of the Paris climate accord, declaring illegal immigration at the US-Mexico border a national emergency, ending birthright citizenship, withdrawing from the World Health Organization, and pardoning supporters who attacked the Capitol on Jan 6, 2021.

UNCERTAINTY AROUND TRUMP'S CURRENT PLANS

The initial actions cover promises that he made on the campaign trail, some of which are already facing pushback and legal challenges. 

“I think we are going to continue to see very strong action on the part of President Trump,” said Vikram Nehru, distinguished practitioner-in-residence at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. 

“As far as the rest of the four years are going to be concerned, this is going to be a presidency which will try to undo many of the reforms introduced by previous Democratic administrations, especially Biden’s, but also Obama’s and prior to that the Clinton’s. 

“So it's going to be a very unsettling or perhaps a very volatile four years going forward.”

STIRRING THE TARIFFS POT

Trump said on Monday he is still studying whether to impose universal tariffs on all imported goods, saying the world's largest economy is “not ready for that yet”. 

“The case with Trump is that everything is transactional. There isn't that much of a structured plan or framework that he applies when dealing with issues of foreign policy, issues of trade,” said Alex Capri, senior lecturer at the NUS Business School’s analytics and operations department. 

“This could come at any day, and it can be transactional, and there could be some kind of quid pro quo, or some kind of negotiating tactics to get some kind of concession out of a country,” he told CNA938. 

Trump has already put major US trading partners Mexico and Canada on notice that they could face a 25 per cent duty on their exports on Feb 1. 

He added on Tuesday that he is considering a 10 per cent duty on Chinese imports, which could also come on Feb 1. He had earlier threatened to impose a whopping 60 per cent tariff against China during his campaign. 

But observers believe that Trump could be facing some resistance from his own advisers when it comes to imposing heavy tariffs on China.

Meanwhile, Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Tuesday, warned that there would be "no winners" in a trade war. 

On how China would react to US tariffs, Tim Harcourt, chief economist at the University of Technology Sydney’s Institute for Public Policy and Governance, said: “I think in some ways they're looking at possibly not retaliating, because they do have trade surpluses with the US. 

“But they will be watchful for other measures with respect to intellectual property, with respect to foreign investment restrictions, and also in terms of the demand for critical minerals that's been very important in the sort of tension between China and the United States.”

Trump on Tuesday also pledged to hit the European Union with tariffs, citing the need to rectify the bloc’s trade imbalances with the US. 

“At this stage, what the Trump administration is doing is signalling intent,” Harcourt told CNA’s Asia Now. “So we don't know what action will come forward.”

Harcourt said he does not really think that tariffs “really have much impact on trade balances”. 

“If anything, they hurt consumers and will hurt American producers,” he added. 

“But politically, I can see that Trump is sort of using tariffs as a strategic weapon, for instance, against Canada and Mexico as a tool of geopolitics, as a negotiating weapon… to ensure that other countries change their foreign policies or their immigration policies. 

“I think that's why the world's pretty uncertain, and people are looking really carefully at what the intention is and what the likely impact is going to be on the global economy.”

CAN TRUMP END BIRTHRIGHT CITIZENSHIP?

Among the slew of divisive executive orders is a move to remove birthright citizenship. 

Twenty-two Democratic-led states have filed lawsuits challenging this, asserting Trump has violated the US Constitution. The 14th Amendment of the Constitution gives a constitutional right of citizenship to all children born in the US.

After his inauguration, Trump ordered agencies to refuse to recognise the citizenship of children born in the US if neither their mother or father is a US citizen or legal permanent resident.

Observers believe that many of the executive orders will likely face challenges in court. 

“I think it'll just be a question of time before you'll see core challenges on these executive orders,” said Nehru, noting that the birthright citizenship executive order was a “direct attack” on the Constitution.

“I expect that the challenges will multiply over the coming weeks.”

But Trump is better positioned to navigate these legal risks and constitutional challenges this time around, compared to his first term in office, said experts. 

“His team this time around has been far better organised and has been far better prepared,” said Nehru.

“And I think now he has a Supreme Court which has a very significant conservative bent. So there's a likelihood that many of these challenges could possibly fail at the level of the Supreme Court.”

SOME REPUBLICANS SURPRISED BY BLANKET PARDON

Trump's decision to pardon more than 1,500 supporters who participated in the attack on the US Capitol to overturn his election defeat in 2021 has also been sharply criticised. 

About 140 police officers were injured in the assault, which sent lawmakers running for their lives.

The act of clemency has also taken the Republican establishment by surprise. It comes just a week after Vice President JD Vance signalled that those responsible for the violence “obviously” should not be pardoned. 

“Clearly, it's Donald Trump that is in the driver's seat. He is not necessarily going to take the advice of even his vice president. He's not going to take the advice of many of his advisers, and we are going to have to be on the edge of our seats as this goes forward,” said Nehru. 

“The fact that he has started his presidency with such energy, with so many actions, is going to play very well with the Republican base.”