CNA Explains: Why are policies to boost birth rates not working for some countries?

Policymakers looking to boost their countries’ falling birth rates should look beyond stop-gap measures like temporary cash bonuses, and instead invest in longer-term support that allows families to have their desired number of children and when they want them, said experts. 

Many governments, concerned about their birth rates being too low, have tried various measures in attempts to raise their birth rates, but with varied success, said Mr John Wilmoth, director of the Population Division at the United Nations. 

“Sometimes, we've observed that these measures are effective in the short run. They may encourage people to have a child sooner than they would've had. But does it really change the number of children that they're having? That's less clear,” he said on Tuesday (Jul 11). 

In the early 1970s, women had on average 4.5 children each, according to the UN. By 2015, the fertility rate for the world had dropped to below 2.5 children per woman. 

WHY ARE POLICIES TO BOOST BIRTH RATES NOT WORKING? 

Mr Wilmoth urged governments to pay attention to “the time challenges in people's lives when they are trying to work and have children”. 

“Public support of childcare is very important. There are other approaches that governments have taken, like paying people a big bonus at the birth of a child, and that may encourage them to have a child soon when these policies are first implemented,” he told CNA's Asia First. 

“But what really matters is, do they have the support day to day, month to month, year to year as they are raising children?”

Several experts, in raising awareness about global population issues on World Population Day, said investing in families who will nurture the next generation is crucial. World Population Day is observed on July 11 every year. 

“In general, the philosophy is that we should enable people to do what they want to do, and that they would make good choices for themselves. And ultimately, those will be good choices for the country as a whole,” said Mr Wilmoth. 

“So if they could somehow be supported in the challenges of having children and raising a family, then it's possible that the birth rate would come back up.”

He also called for greater gender equality, not just in the workplace but also at home. 

“Women don't want to have to do a full-time job at work and then go home and do a full-time job at home as well, and I think that's quite understandable,” he said.

“In many parts of the world, it's really necessary to pay attention to this issue, to work towards gender equality, not only in the public sphere, but also in the private sphere, to make life with children manageable for both men and women who are both probably actively employed.”

However, some observers believe that there is very little countries can do to influence fertility rates. 

“(Instead,) making sure that having a family is affordable (and) making sure that older persons are supported is really the best way to go, rather than to feel like we can somehow return to a high birth rate context,” said Dr Gretchen Donehower, academic specialist at the University of California, Berkeley’s Center for the Economics and Demography of Aging.

“That's probably not going to happen.”

HOW CAN AGEING SOCIETIES DEAL WITH HEALTHCARE CHALLENGES? 

Meanwhile, the world’s population, which stood at 7 billion in 2011, hit the 8 billion mark last November. It is expected to grow to about 8.5 billion in 2030, according to the UN. 

The dramatic growth has been driven by increasing numbers of people surviving to reproductive age, accompanied by increasing urbanisation and accelerating migration, said the UN. 

The average global lifespan has gone up from 64.6 years in the early 1990s to 72.6 years in 2019, as a result of better healthcare, nutrition, hygiene and medicine, according to the UN. 

However, the increasing life expectancy has also highlighted the elder care needs of the growing elderly population.

Fortunately, demographic change is “generally pretty predictable”, Dr Donehower told CNA’s Asia Now. “So we know what's coming and we can plan for it and adapt to the new reality.”

Most of the fast-ageing countries are in Asia, she pointed out, citing Japan, South Korea and China. 

However, those nations “seem to have the resources and understanding of what's coming in the future, and hopefully are going to be able to take those steps”, she added. 

In Japan, for instance, elderly people often work for many more years after they end formal employment, said Dr Donehower. 

“This is a problem if it is in a context of poor health or disability. We don't want people to have to keep working if it's a burden on them. So, there is a lot of experimentation with this.”

So far, countries that have the most success in addressing ageing population issues are those that remove age-based retirement policies and build more flexibility into the labour market for older workers, she added. 

Governments can also play a bigger part to cushion the pressures felt by individuals who have both young children and elderly parents to take care of, said Dr Donehower.

“Balancing the state's obligations and the family's obligations will go a long way towards adapting to these changes more successfully.”

Experts also said there is a need to pay more attention to preventive care, which covers a wide range of areas such as nutrition, sleep and exercise. 

Using dementia as an example, Ms Diane Ty, senior director of think tank Milken Institute’s Center for the Future of Aging, said improving early detection is critical. 

This comes as many people living with dementia remain undiagnosed, she told CNA’s Asia Now. 

“In Japan, there is a concerted effort to really look at cognitive impairment among older adults and make that part of the routine healthcare checkup, not unlike taking your blood pressure or doing a mammogram.”

By the middle of this century, more than half of people with dementia worldwide will be living in the Asia-Pacific region, Ms Ty pointed out. 

“That's going to be a lot of taxing on the healthcare system, and there is a need for more community support and services not only for the person living with dementia, but also the family caregivers.”

Observers said policymakers must understand how many people are living on the planet, how old they are, and how many people will come after them, to better address the needs of individuals. 

WHAT IS THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON POPULATION PATTERNS?

Population changes have far-reaching implications, as they affect areas such as economic development, income distribution and social protections, said the UN. 

Experts also urged policymakers to consider climate change, which could drastically affect population growth. This includes the possibility of mass movements across international borders. 

“There is a risk in some parts of the world that the extreme weather conditions that climate change is bringing will bring higher mortality, at least in episodes. Periods of extreme heat that might produce deaths,” said Mr Wilmoth. 

“How significant those will be in the larger scheme of things, we don't really know. Would it really reverse trends in life expectancy at birth? I'm doubtful that it would.” 

He touched on migration as a big concern, and how the climate crisis could drive people to leave their homes, such as in low-lying areas where flooding commonly occurs. 

“It may be impossible therefore to live in those locations,” he added. “But I think the larger issue probably is whether climate change may in some areas lead to fundamental changes in the economy. 

“It may kind of devastate certain industries, especially agriculture in some areas, and that would prompt people to want to move.” 

The world is already seeing increasing urbanisation and migration. By 2050, about 66 per cent of the total population will be living in cities, said the UN. 

Mr Wilmoth, however, believes it is unclear where climate change-displaced communities would move to. 

“I would expect that most of the movements related to climate change will be within countries and that countries should be able to accommodate that,” he added. 

“But it could also lead to increased demand for international movement.”