Malaysia gripped in wave of denials, accusations over alleged ‘Dubai Move’ plot to topple Anwar govt
A meeting said to have taken place in Dubai with the aim of unsettling the unity government could have involved people who do not want to be scrutinised further under PM Anwar's anti-graft probes, political observers say.
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SINGAPORE: In the days leading up to the new year, Malaysian social media was awash with not just celebratory posts but also a thick air of political intrigue fuelled by speculation that the government could soon fall.
Specifically on TikTok, a tool commonly used to spread political propaganda in Malaysia, content creators had bandied about the same phrase: Dubai Move.
Powerful political figures holidaying in United Arab Emirates’ most populous city were said to have met in December to discuss how they could topple the unity government led by Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, the videos said.
Then on Dec 29, these rumours grew louder when a government official took to social media to confirm the existence of the “Dubai Move”, allegedly involving opposition leaders from Perikatan Nasional (PN) and other party leaders who were not satisfied with the unity government and Mr Anwar’s leadership style.
Deputy director-general of the government’s community communications department Ismail Yusop said in a Facebook post that the meeting was held to assign tasks to officers who would identify government MPs that could be persuaded into defecting.
Since then, it has sparked a flurry of denials, rebuttals, and retorts by politicians from various camps over whether the Dubai meeting did take place and if not, who was spreading such claims and why.
While talk of the Dubai Move remains as allegations, there is precedence.
In 2020, the “Sheraton Move” crumbled the Mahathir Mohamad administration from within. Part of this plot was reportedly hatched in the Sheraton Hotel in Petaling Jaya.
The move saw more than 30 MPs in the ruling Pakatan Harapan (PH) alliance defecting, bringing it down after it had been in charge for just 22 months.
While an anti-hopping law has been enacted to prevent similar undemocratic manoeuvres, it does not prevent entire party blocs from leaving a government coalition. Nor has it prevented similar attempts.
In January 2023, news emerged of plot to oust United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and eventually overthrow the unity government.
This came after a blogger alleged that two UMNO vice-presidents were part of a group of leaders who met in London to plot Mr Ahmad Zahid’s downfall, leading to it being dubbed the “London Move”.
Political observers told CNA that the Dubai meeting - if it indeed took place - was most likely triggered by Mr Anwar’s latest graft crackdown and involved individuals who were wary of being scrutinised.
However, they said such a move is unlikely to be successful unless MPs in the government bloc, especially those from traditional kingmakers Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS), could be persuaded to defect en masse.
DENIALS AND DISMISSALS
In the Dec 29 Facebook post, the government propaganda chief Mr Ismail alleged that Dr Mahathir, former finance minister Daim Zainuddin, PN and their allies were using resources both inside and outside the government to topple Mr Anwar’s administration.
Mr Daim is being investigated by Malaysia’s anti-graft agency, which has seized a multi-million-dollar prime commercial building his family owns after he refused to declare his and his family's financial holdings, CNA previously reported.
Close associates of Mr Daim and businessmen who regularly meet Dr Mahathir noted that the two men insist that Mr Anwar is out for revenge and point to the veiled threats the politician made before he became premier.
“There are spokespeople with access to opposition leaders who are going around the whole country, including in Sabah and Sarawak, to ensure that in early 2024, the Madani government will fall within a specified deadline,” Mr Ismail wrote.
The next day, Berita Harian published an article on the Dubai Move, with Mr Ismail saying in an interview that the meeting involved influential figures with the title of “Tun” who were veterans of the political scene, as well as a former prime minister and finance minister who would use all “local and foreign” resources to execute this plan.
Reaction to the article has been swift.
On the same day, opposition leaders from Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) and Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) rubbished the move, saying it was likely made up by the government to distract people from pressing issues.
PAS deputy president Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man said the claim was “an attempt to deceive the people” by drawing their attention away from what he described as the government’s failures in managing current issues, Free Malaysia Today reported.
On Dec 31, UMNO supreme council member Ahmad Maslan called the move a “fantasy”. UMNO and Barisan Nasional (BN) MPs - who are part of the unity government - would have to pay RM100 million (US$21.6 million) if they wanted to jump party, he wrote on X.
This figure is a “party loyalty bond” that every BN candidate signed before receiving a letter of appointment as a candidate for the 15th General Election.
The next day, former prime minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob, who is also an UMNO vice-president, denied that he was involved in the meeting. He said he was never in Dubai, and was instead in Mecca and Medina to perform the minor pilgrimage, Berita Harian reported.
Sarawak premier and GPS chairman Abang Johari Openg also dismissed the move as a “waste of time”, telling local media on Jan 1 that GPS supports the unity government for political stability, which would help economic growth and in turn benefit Sarawak.
He brushed aside speculation that the plan involved installing him as the next prime minister, saying that his potential premiership would eventually come under pressure as GPS only held 23 seats in parliament.
BN’s 30 seats and GPS’ 23 seats make up the second- and third-largest proportions of the government bloc, meaning they are integral to any potential plan to topple the unity government.
On Jan 2, Mr Anwar himself chimed in on the Dubai Move, saying it had no impact on his administration that was focused on developing the nation and looking after the people’s well-being. “Their deception for me has no effect,” he told local media.
UMNO chief Mr Ahmad Zahid, who's deputy prime minister, confirmed that such a plan existed, citing “intelligence” reports of the Dubai flights the plotters took.
However, he told reporters the plan was “ill-conceived”, and that previous attempts to topple the government had failed.
Former Pejuang deputy president Marzuki Yahya also came out to deny that Dr Mahathir was involved in the Dubai move, calling the accusations “baseless”.
He said this was because Dr Mahathir - who was once chairman of the Pejuang party - had not been abroad in the past few weeks, Sinar Premium reported.
SELF-PRESERVATION
Universiti Malaya political analyst Awang Azman Awang Pawi said the Dubai Meeting could have taken place because certain people were “panicking” that Mr Anwar had made it his core agenda to rid the country of corruption.
“These are people who are currently being investigated or who have yet to be investigated,” he said, without naming them, noting that these individuals were interested in self-preservation.
Despite that, Dr Awang Azman said it is unrealistic that the unity government would fall as it currently holds a two-thirds majority (152 out of 222 seats) in parliament.
Any political coup would first need the GPS MPs to leave the government bloc and destroy this two-thirds majority, he said.
Independent analyst Asrul Hadi Sani said he believes Mr Daim is a “significant factor” in the Dubai meeting taking place, especially with the ongoing federal investigation into his assets and his “close relationship” with Mr Abang Johari.
“The key is not UMNO but GPS. If Mahathir and Daim are able to convince Abang Johari not to support Anwar, then there could be a possible domino effect of MPs switching their support,” he told CNA.
“Without GPS, it is unlikely the federal government will be toppled.”
Unlike a divided UMNO, which Mr Asrul Hadi feels could only offer 10 MPs willing to switch support, the notion of 23 GPS MPs defecting will carry weight and create momentum, he said.
“Unlike Zahid, who doesn't have the support of all his party members, Abang Johari has control over all of his MPs in deciding who to support in parliament as prime minister,” he added.
“However, 23 plus 10 may push other MPs within UMNO and other parties to not support Anwar.”
With that said, Sunway University political scientist Wong Chin Huat believes Mr Abang Johari does not have strong federal ambitions as his party’s most senior representative in parliament is Deputy Prime Minister Fadillah Yusof.
Mr Fadillah, who's also Minister of Energy Transition & Public Utilities in Mr Anwar’s Cabinet, is only fourth in command in GPS.
Mr Abang Johari himself could have contested in the previous general election and easily won a seat, but he chose not to, Dr Wong said.
“A retired GPS politician told me, Abang Jo won’t want to be a lame duck PM for a month before PAS turns around and destroys him,” he said, referring to long-standing tensions between PAS and GPS.
“For this reason, GPS may team up with any winner from the peninsula after the next General Election, but there is no reason for them to sabotage this government.”
While Dr Wong acknowledged that PN, some BN leaders and Dr Mahathir have intentions to topple the unity government, he feels they are currently weaker than when Mr Anwar was opposition leader in 2021.
Dr Wong also called for the introduction of a Fixed Term Parliament Act, which will ensure political stability for a full five-year term by preventing a power change mid-term that could disrupt implementation of Malaysia’s policies.
This was most recently proposed by a government backbencher in February last year, a move that reform advocacy group Bersih said would protect Malaysia’s king from being dragged into political drama while still preserving his power to decide the prime minister in specific circumstances.
“Both constitutional monarchy and parliamentary democracy would be strengthened once everyone accepts that governments are produced by elections, and not MPs or parties simply crossing floors with the blessing of some unelected institutions,” Dr Wong said.
Currently, any appointment of a new prime minister will require the royal assent of Malaysia's king, a role that Johor ruler Sultan Ibrahim Sultan Iskandar will be taking up from Jan 31.
Dr Awang Azman believes the new ruler will not “entertain” the formation of a new government without a clear reason. Sultan Ibrahim has also spoken out against previous efforts to derail political stability in Malaysia.
“If it’s only for reasons of self-preservation, I don’t think the new Agung will entertain it,” he said.
