In Selangor, incumbent state government touts achievements as opposition confident of courting Malay vote

KUALA LUMPUR: It was on the fifth-year anniversary of the day he took office that Selangor’s chief minister Amirudin Shari held a press conference and touted the state’s achievements during his time at the helm.

The Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) leader was upbeat when he talked about them on Monday (Jun 19).

They included various aid packages given to the public, economic growth of five per cent in 2021 when the world was in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as increasing the state reserves to RM3.4 billion (US$730 million) in 2022 from RM2.1 billion in 2018.

This was because the Selangor state assembly was to be dissolved on Jun 23. Earlier in the morning on Jun 19, Selangor ruler Sultan Sharafuddin Idris Shah had consented to the dissolution of the state legislative assembly on Friday.  

Mr Amirudin also took a potshot at former friend turned rival Azmi Ali - the former Selangor chief minister now with Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) - who had claimed that the Selangor state assembly would be dissolved on Jun 19.

"We have laws, customs, and conventions we should respect. It is not justifiable for any party to make any announcement ahead of the Sultan of Selangor on the date the assembly will be dissolved,” he told reporters while flanked by members of the state executive committee during an event on Monday.

Selangor has the largest economy among all states in Malaysia, contributing almost 25 per cent of the national gross domestic product (GDP).  

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said during an event with the state’s civil servants on Jun 12 that Selangor was the bastion of the unity government.  

"Looking at Selangor's performance, there is much more potential to offer and Selangor plays an important role in defending the strength of the national economy. That is why there are many who want to get their hands on it ... don't allow them that opportunity," he was quoted as saying by Bernama.

Amid a more polarised electorate, political observers say that a close battle is shaping up in Selangor, with the opposition Perikatan Nasional (PN) hoping to come into power on the heels of support from a predominantly Malay Muslim base. 

ANALYSTS EXPECT A TOUGH FIGHT IN SELANGOR 

Being the most developed and most populous state in Malaysia, Selangor is considered to be the “jewel” that is keenly watched and contested every election, observers say.  

“Selangor is the jewel in the crown for both PKR and Pakatan Harapan (PH), as its demographic composition resembles the national picture,” political analyst Professor Wong Chin Huat of the Jeffrey Cheah Institute on Southeast Asia (JCI) told CNA.

PKR is a component party within PH. The coalition also includes the Democratic Action Party (DAP) and Parti Amanah Negara (Amanah) among others. 

The 15th General Election (GE15) in November last year resulted in a hung parliament that eventually ended up with the formation of a unity government comprising PH, Barisan Nasional (BN), as well as parties from Borneo.

PH said that it will be working with its allies in the unity government - namely the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) - in the six states that will hold elections: Selangor along with Negeri Sembilan, Kedah, Penang, Kelantan and Terengganu. 

UMNO is a component party within BN. 

Political analyst Sivamurugan Pandian of University Sains Malaysia (USM) told CNA that he believed that PH would retain hold of the Selangor state government, although it would depend a lot on the candidates they field and the cooperation between PH and BN. 

“It will remain to be seen if they would be able to strategise against PN who are likely to retain the support they received in GE15. 

“This will be an litmus test for PH and BN,” he said, adding that this was also the first time that six states would be holding state elections not in tandem with national elections.

Mr Pandian, however, said that the margin of victory would be something he would watch closely this time around.

“Politics is no longer static but is dynamic. It would depend on the candidate, machinery and internal sabotage among other things. Everyone thought that BN would win the last election but look at what happened,” he said.  

Prof Wong told CNA that a PN victory in Selangor was unlikely except in the event of extremely low turnout among voters. 

He however believed that PN would hope to cause damage by winning over UMNO's base to cause an upset. 

"If UMNO is wiped out, PN would use that to trigger uproar in UMNO and by doing so, cause instability to the federal government,” said Prof Wong. 

SELANGOR CHIEF MINISTER CONFIDENT OF TWO-THIRDS MAJORITY 

When asked by CNA about the challenges he faces in the coming state elections compared to the last one, Mr Amirudin acknowledged that the situation was different from 2018.  

“With the line-up I had and our performance in the last five years where we faced multiple crises and how we moved and rose together, I am confident of retaining a minimum two-thirds majority,” he said at the Jun 19 event.

Mr Amirudin also noted that every political party will play up their chances of winning, including the opposition PN. 

“When you are going into an election, you cannot be speaking about losing. But we must respect the choice of the voters.  

“I am confident that this administration has focused on good governance and answered all the issues faced without sweeping anything under the rug,” he said.

He claimed that PH was strong in Selangor as they did not have any internal problems plaguing the coalition and that with a right strategy, they could repeat their performance in 2018. 

He however said that he was not dismissive of PN’s efforts and that is why they have increased their communications on the ground and on social media.

“We are confident with our data, we are confident with our analysis and with our performance in the past 15 years," he said.

Mr Amirudin also said that seat negotiations between PH and BN had concluded, although several overlapping seats in all states will be looked at by Mr Anwar and BN chairman Ahmad Zahid Hamidi.

UMNO supreme council member Lokman Noor Adam told CNA that the seat negotiations have almost concluded, with both sides likely to be satisfied with the number of seats they have been given to contest.     

He said that it was important for Selangor not to fall to PN as they would “misuse their power and misappropriate funds”, pointing to several corruption cases faced by leaders of the opposition.  

When asked about the likelihood of UMNO voters likely to vote for PN, Mr Lokman said that the party had gone down to the grassroots to explain their decision to work with PH.

“We are intensifying efforts to make sure that support of BN supporters is high although there are some obstacles because of the indoctrination on the image of DAP, which has stuck into the minds of the Malay people.

“It is a difficult task but not impossible,” he said, adding that the PH acceptance for BN was high.    

Mr Lokman also said he was confident that they would be able to win the state easily.

PN CONFIDENT OF COURTING THE MALAY VOTE 

PN, for its part, will be led by former Selangor chief minister and Bersatu supreme council member Azmin Ali for the upcoming state elections. 

The coalition - which is made up of Bersatu, Islamist party Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) and Parti Gerakan Rakyat Malaysia (Gerakan) - has been going on the offensive, saying that they are confident of winning 33 seats, all of which are Malay-majority ones, in the election.  

There are 56 seats in the Selangor state assembly. Of these, 41 were held by PH, seven by PN, five from BN and three by Parti Pejuang Tanah Air (Pejuang). 

PN has said that it would have won 14 seats had the state elections been held in November last year concurrent with the general elections. 

The GE15 last year saw PN powered by a “green wave” to win six out of 22 federal seats in Selangor - Sabak Bernam, Sungai Besar, Hulu Selangor, Tanjong Karang, Kapar, and Kuala Langat.

The remaining 16 parliamentary seats in Selangor were won by PH while BN did not win any.

Bersatu information chief Razali Idris told CNA that they were confident of doing well in Selangor following their win in the six parliamentary seats.

He expected that the votes from the Malay population would increase following UMNO’s decision to cooperate with PH and form the unity government as well as the sacking of leaders such as Mr Khairy Jamaluddin. 

“From our analysis of the voting patterns, the votes of the Malays are with PN. UMNO had promised not to work with DAP, but they reneged on this. We expect more Malays to support PN because of this,” he said. 

Former Umno supreme council member Noh Omar, who was expelled from the party, claimed that PH had always been winning because there was a split in Malay votes caused by three-cornered fights.  

Now advocating for PN, the former Tanjong Karang Member of Parliament and former minister said that the straight fights between PN and PH-BN will benefit them.

“I am confident that PN will win Selangor in the election … If the Malays are united, we can win 33 seats,” he said at a PN event in Sungai Besar on Jun 2.  

A simple majority of 29 seats is needed by any coalition to rule the state.

“Selangor is very important because if it falls, it is a big sign to the federal government who will feel shaky because it doesn’t have an anchor state to hold on to. Selangor is very important and it will be a tough fight,” said Mr Razali of Bersatu.