Thailand’s Pheu Thai could drop Move Forward to form new coalition, say analysts
Pheu Thai has to “really evaluate” whether forming a new coalition that excludes the progressive Move Forward Party would be politically viable in the future, said one observer.
The leaders of the progressive Move Forward Party, Pheu Thai and other opposition groups meet in Bangkok for coalition talks to form a new government after winning the most seats in Thailand's election (Photo: AFP/Jack TAYLOR)
Thai populist party Pheu Thai could potentially drop its coalition partner Move Forward Party and form a new alliance with military-backed parties, even at the risk of losing supporters, analysts said on Thursday (Jul 20).
They were speaking a day after Move Forward chief Pita Limjaroenrat’s second bid to become prime minister was quashed by the military and pro-royalist establishment.
The original eight-party coalition Is now “falling apart publicly”, said Ms Aim Sinpeng, senior lecturer in comparative politics at the University of Sydney, pointing to social media posts by members decrying Move Forward’s reliance on young people.
Given the “very strong signals” from the political elite against Move Forward governing the country, Pheu Thai – which was runner-up in the May elections – might have realised that it has the opportunity to lead the government, she told CNA’s Asia Tonight on Wednesday.
Pheu Thai is expected to field its own candidate, business tycoon Srettha Thavisin, as its prime minister nominee in the next round of voting on Jul 27.
“If Pheu Thai wants to be very democratic, the best option is to work with Move Forward. However, if Pheu Thai wants to form a government, then its best option is to work with other parties,” said Dr Paul Chambers from the Center of ASEAN Community Studies at Naresuan University in Thailand.
“Because Move Forward has already been rejected by the palace. It has already been rejected by the powers that be. And so Pheu Thai most likely will work with parties that have been in the previous government to try to form a ruling coalition,” he told CNA’s Asia Now on Thursday.
PHEU THAI "IN A VERY DIFFICULT POSITION"
However, Pheu Thai has to “really evaluate” whether forming a new coalition that excludes Move Forward would be politically viable in the future, said Assistant Professor Surachanee Sriyai from the School of Public Policy at Chiang Mai University.
“We're not talking short game here (about) who's going to become prime minister but we're talking four years from now when the elections come around, would people still vote for Pheu Thai if Pheu Thai excludes Move Forward from this coalition,” said the academic, who wanted to be known as Asst Prof Hammerli.
She added that the Thai people may see Pheu Thai as a traitor if it drops Move Forward, which won a landslide victory in the May 14 general election.
The party would have to consider if such a move is necessary for them to gain enough votes to secure the prime minister position, she said.
Many senators had made it clear they would not vote for a prime minister candidate of any coalition that includes Move Forward because of its stance on amending the lese majeste law.
Pheu Thai is in “a very difficult position”, Associate Professor at the University of Canterbury James Ockey told CNA’s Asia First on Thursday.
“They could easily get their candidate through if they just shifted the coalition, dropped Move Forward and added whichever other parties it chose to add,” said Assoc Prof Ockey, whose research interests include Southeast Asian politics.
“But the difficulty they face is (that) they lost a lot of seats in the last parliament to Move Forward precisely because people were afraid they would cut a deal with the military parties. So if they now cut a deal with the military parties, they can form a government in the short term, but over the longer term, their voter support base could erode quite dramatically.”
WHAT’S NEXT FOR PHEU THAI?
The biggest job for Pheu Thai now if it decides to partner with some of the parties from the old government is to “control the narrative”, Ms Aim said.
The party would have to convince the Thai voters that it is trying to prevent the country from sliding rapidly towards chaos and political crisis, she said, adding that the people remember what it feels like to live in political limbo.
“If Pheu Thai decides it makes sense for them to be the government and to partner with parties that may be from the old government, it's about now constructing a narrative that they're doing this for the nation, they're doing this democratically, and that they're not abandoning many of the progressive policies that a lot of people want,” she said.
Assoc Prof Ockey said that if Thailand cannot name a prime minister from either of the two largest parties, there will be a stalemate.
Dr Chambers said he expects Pheu Thai to form a government with assistance from more right-wing parties and Move Forward will remain as opposition.
“There continues to be a clash between parties that want change, Pheu Thai that wants to sort of keep the status quo, and right-wing forces that are supported by the military,” he said.
