Oil slides, stocks rebound on Trump's Iran remarks

NEW YORK: Oil prices tumbled and stock markets rebounded Monday (Mar 23) after US President Donald Trump suddenly ordered a halt to strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure after initially setting a 48-hour deadline, claiming "very good" talks with Tehran.

Crude futures plunged more than 14 per cent after Trump's comments on his Truth Social platform, but pared those losses after Iran denied any talks were taking place.

Brent closed down 10.9 per cent at US$99.94 per barrel, while its US equivalent West Texas Intermediate lost 10.3 per cent to US$88.13.

Sam Stovall of CFRA Research said the fact that Trump had specified a five-day pause on energy infrastructure strikes "means we probably could see some additional strength through this week" in the equity markets.

Asian and European stock markets had kicked off the new week with sharp losses, but Trump's update, which came after the Asian close, saw European and US equities rally.

The rebound lost some steam after Iranian media said there had been no talks between Tehran and Washington, and London's FTSE 100 ended the day lower as energy and defence stocks slumped.

Wall Street's main stock indices closed up, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones all gaining more than one percent. 

"It's incredibly difficult to trade these markets when Trump is swinging between massive escalation and declaring peace/victory ... but the market is happy for now that we do not enter a new phase of danger," said Saxo UK investor strategist Neil Wilson.

Stovall of CFRA Research said in an environment of such high uncertainty, investors were making decisions "based on suppositions rather than facts."

XTB research director Kathleen Brooks said that if Trump's comments pointed to be an off-ramp from the conflict, "we could see a move back towards US$90 per barrel for Brent in the coming days." 

But she added that oil would not quickly return to the pre-war levels of under US$70 a barrel as it would take time to repair damaged energy infrastructure in the Gulf.

Ahead of Trump's update, the International Energy Agency warned of the worst global energy crisis in decades.

Iran warned the Hormuz Strait "will be completely closed" should Trump act on his threat to destroy its energy infrastructure.

The 48-hour ultimatum came as the waterway - through which a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows - remains effectively closed to all but Iranian oil.

Analysts have warned of a potential inflation surge as oil prices remain far above pre-war levels despite Monday's plunge.

That could prompt central banks hike interest rates, putting the brakes on the global economy.

Trump's latest announcement sent the greenback lower against the euro, pound and yen. 

For the markets, Stovall warned that uncertainty remained the name of the game.

"We could just as easily fall tomorrow if the president says something else that contradicts what happened today," he said. "But I don't think that's going to happen."