Commentary: Sabah 2025 election – will Warisan’s Shafie Apdal rise again?

KUALA LUMPUR: The dissolution of the Sabah state assembly on Oct 6 has sparked speculation over the political line-ups for the upcoming election. Amid a parade of heavyweights, Shafie Apdal remains a central figure.

Long regarded as the quintessential son of Sabah’s East Coast, his party commanded strong support at the last election in East Coast constituencies like Semporna and Lahad Datu, which form the backbone of his political base. But public perceptions seem mixed today. And Sabah’s history of shifting political alliances adds to the uncertainty of his party’s performance.

Born in Semporna, Shafie rose through the ranks of the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) before breaking away in 2016 after the 1MDB scandal to form Parti Warisan Sabah, a bold bid to end Sabah’s subordination to Peninsula politics. Riding popular discontent with the Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition that UMNO dominated, he led Warisan to victory in 2018 and became chief minister.

For many on the East Coast, long sidelined in state politics, his election was vindication: one of their own at the helm. Apart from supporting rural infrastructure and native land titles, his government championed the Malaysia Agreement 1963 (MA63), placing Sabah’s autonomy squarely at the heart of state discourse.

Two years later, however, defections toppled his government and, in the ensuing snap election, the Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) coalition came to power, leaving Warisan in opposition and struggling to recapture its former momentum. 

In the 2020 Sabah state election, Warisan, along with its allies from the Pakatan Harapan national coalition – which now heads the federal government – won 32 out of 73 seats, with its strongest margins in East Coast districts like Bugaya, Senallang, Sulabayan and Kunak.

However, in the general election of 2022, Warisan, running independently, secured only 3 out of Sabah’s 25 parliamentary seats (including the Semporna seat that Shafie has held for 30 years), suggesting the party’s East Coast dominance did not translate federally. Heading into 2025, Warisan’s safest ground remains its East Coast strongholds of Semporna, Lahad Datu and parts of Tawau.

SABAH-FIRST ETHOS

Central to Shafie’s identity is his Sabah-first ethos, which resonates deeply along the East Coast. But based on fieldwork in the East Coast, it would seem that championing Sabah’s independence may not be enough to deliver victory at the ballot box.

Ground perceptions of Shafie are mixed. Din, a Lahad Datu voter in his thirties, spoke nostalgically of Shafie as a naga politik (“political dragon”), recalling 2018 as the moment “Sabahans rejected BN, and the only alternative was Shafie and Warisan”. For many, Shafie once symbolised defiance and dignity.

Yet others, like Rintok from Sandakan, were critical: “Shafie Apdal is no longer as popular … There’s no talk of supporting Shafie as chief minister again because of past mistakes.”

Critics charge Shafie with mismanagement during his time as chief minister, attributing electricity disruptions and delays in a highway project to decisions he had made then. He has also been accused of “Sempornisation” in the civil service, shorthand for favouritism towards loyalists from his home district. Persistent criticism of this nature may sway voters, including those on the East Coast.

Under 30 voters shaped more by TikTok than kampung loyalties can now swing outcomes. A group of youths from Semporna put it plainly: “We don’t know if we still support Warisan – anything can happen to political parties. But Shafie? Even his shadow can win.” Their sentiment captures both affection and uncertainty: admiration for Shafie’s charisma, but scepticism towards Warisan’s claim to change.

While Shafie insists that “the real battles are in the kampung and kedai kopi”, his rural-first focus risks alienating an increasingly urbanised and digitally literate electorate. Populist promises like abolishing student loans have yet to persuade them that Warisan offers reform over nostalgia.

In mid-2025, Warisan launched its “Selamatkan Sabah” (Save Sabah) campaign, pledging to fix the state’s water crisis and prioritise local development. But without clear promises of deep structural reform, such slogans risk being dismissed as rebranding rather than renewal.

QUIET SCEPTICISM

Overall, the prevailing mood seems not one of outright rejection, but of quiet scepticism. Many voters who are drawn to him feel less anger than hope that Shafie could learn from past excesses. Voters are weary of political recycling and elite narratives that promise change but deliver little.

Apart from the force of Shafie’s personality and perceptions of his leadership, Warisan’s ability to achieve victory will depend on campaign strategy. Following the fall of Shafie’s government, Warisan initially wavered between continuing its alliance with Pakatan Harapan and asserting its independence.

But by 2023, Shafie began indicating that the party would not form alliances (“Warisan’s pact is with the people”) and in August announced that Warisan would contest all 73 state seats alone. By disengaging from Pakatan Harapan, he has revived his party’s insistence on autonomy – Sabah charting its own course free from federal control.

What was once a rallying cry for Sabah’s political independence now doubles as a tactical gamble that could either reaffirm Shafie’s leadership or further marginalise the opposition front. For Warisan’s determination to stand independently heightens the risk of opposition fragmentation as multiple anti-GRS and anti-BN parties compete for the same voter base, which could inadvertently benefit the ruling coalition.

On the road to the 2025 elections, Sabah’s political terrain remains volatile: defections from the Homeland Solidarity Party (STAR), UMNO’s attempts to recast its losses in the 2018 Sabah election, and Shafie’s recruitment of former UMNO veterans earlier this year all point to unstable alliances and shifting loyalties.

In 2025, Shafie stands as both symbol and survivor, seeking not only to rebuild Warisan’s grassroots but also to recast himself as a bridge between the old order and a restless new electorate. For East Coast voters, however, the question is no longer whether Shafie represents them, but whether he will finally deliver for them.

Vilashini Somiah is Senior Lecturer and Head of the Gender Studies Programme, Universiti Malaya, and Visiting Fellow with the Malaysia Studies Programme at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute. This commentary first appeared on ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute’s site, Fulcrum.