Commentary: China is closing the quantum technology gap

TOKYO: The world has been paying close attention to the global contest for supremacy in artificial intelligence. But the separate race for quantum technology could have an even more profound impact on the geopolitical balance of power. While the United States currently leads, China is narrowing the gap – fast. 

Quantum technology harnesses the mind-boggling mechanics of quantum physics – the science of how particles behave at the atomic level – to build new kinds of computers, sensors and communication systems exponentially more powerful than today’s. As mathematician Hannah Fry explains, think of solving a maze: A traditional computer tries one path at a time; a quantum computer explores all the possibilities simultaneously. 

It has the potential to transform industries from medicine to finance and AI. McKinsey estimates that quantum technology could generate up to US$97 billion in revenue by 2035.

Despite the potential, quantum computing has largely remained confined to the lab or the realm of the theoretical. Scientists are still working through how to make systems reliable and scalable. 

It has yet to have the “ChatGPT moment” that catapulted AI into universal consciousness. But that time is fast approaching, and the stakes are high. Breakthroughs could render all the encryption used by banks and governments on today’s internet useless, opening a critical new front in the global tech rivalry.

OVERTAKE AMERICA AS SOON AS 2027?

Patent data offers an initial glimpse of who will likely come out on top. A surge of filings in China suggests Beijing’s push to be a global leader is beginning to bear fruit. The US is still ahead, but a recent LexisNexis analysis of the strength of both countries’ quantum computing patent portfolios forecasts China could overtake America as soon as 2027.

Examining hard-to-fudge patent data has been a key in the earliest foreshadowing of future trends, Marco Richter, the director of IP analytics and strategy at LexisNexis, told me. 

“The technology shift that we’ve seen in patents in electric vehicles many years ago has already taken shape,” Richter explained. By applying the same logic to the dynamics observed in quantum computing now, “we can only imagine that we are on a similar path where Chinese organisations will play a very important role in these technologies in just a few years’ time,” he adds.

The analysis goes beyond raw tallying, weighing for global reach, relevance and impact by looking at other factors, such as how often patents are cited in new research. A key takeaway is that the old narrative of US titans like IBM, Alphabet’s Google and Microsoft battling each other is outdated. China isn’t just catching up, it’s generating new champions.

Beijing’s commitment explains why. It has poured US$15.3 billion in public funds for investments in quantum computing, more than eight times the US$1.9 billion the US has pledged.

America’s fragile position at the top hasn’t gone unnoticed. Earlier this year, Microsoft president Brad Smith warned that “we cannot afford to rule out the possibility of a strategic surprise or that China may already be at parity with the United States”. He urged in a blog post for the US and allies to double down on a coordinated national strategy.

A SHRINKING WINDOW TO ACT

The urgency is warranted. The Trump administration has been gutting investments into science and making it more difficult for foreign students and researchers – who make the bulk of its quantum talent – to come and stay. If Washington wants to remain competitive, it must rebuild its STEM pipeline and welcome international expertise.

The US has an edge in private investment, but it’s not clear if this will be enough to sustain the foundational research necessary while the technology matures. Without a coordinated federal push, the dependence on fragmented private-sector innovation and short-term market incentives could risk ceding its leadership in the critical technology. 

America once dominated in semiconductor production, for example, until it didn’t. And it has since poured billions trying to retroactively reclaim its position at the top.

The US still has many advantages as the quantum era inches closer to reality. This week, Google said it ran a breakthrough algorithm on its Willow quantum-computing chip that clears the way for a range of potential uses in medicine and science. 

Last month, an IBM quantum processer was used by HSBC to achieve a world-first breakthrough in applying the technology to real-world algorithmic bond trading. Microsoft’s development of a new, more stable type of quantum chip went surprisingly viral earlier this year, rekindling public excitement. 

Yet Chinese firms like Origin Quantum are becoming increasingly globally competitive, winning research partnerships in Europe and other parts of the world.

As Beijing’s momentum accelerates, Washington’s window to act is shrinking fast.