Iran's leaders struggle to end protests, US action in Venezuela stokes fears

DUBAI: Iran's efforts to ‌quell a wave of anti-government protests have been complicated by United States President Donald Trump's threat to intervene on their side, a warning firmly underlined by the subsequent US capture of Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro, officials and insiders said on Monday (Jan 5).

A day before US special forces seized Maduro and his wife on Jan 3 and whisked them off to New York, the US president warned in a social media post that if Iran's leadership killed protesters who have taken to the streets since Dec 28, the US "will come to their rescue". 

At least 17 people have died so far.

Tehran's options have been limited by Trump's threats and a long-running economic crisis that deepened after Israel, joined by the US, launched strikes on the Islamic Republic in June in a 12-day war that pummelled several of Iran's nuclear sites.

FEARS OF IRAN BEING "NEXT VICTIM"

"These twin pressures have narrowed Tehran's room for manoeuvre, leaving leaders caught between public anger on the streets and hardening demands and threats from Washington, with few viable options and high risks on every path," one Iranian official told Reuters.

The view was ‌echoed by two other officials and a former Iranian official who remains close to Iran's decision makers. All of them asked not to be identified due ‌to the sensitivity of the situation.

A second official said that, after US action in Venezuela, some of the authorities feared Iran could be "the next victim of Trump's aggressive foreign policy".

Iran's economy has been hammered by years of US sanctions, but its rial has been in freefall since last year's Israeli-US strikes that mainly targeted nuclear sites, where the West says Tehran has been working on nuclear arms. Iran denies this.

The protests that erupted in Tehran and which have spread to some cities in western and southern Iran do not match the scale of unrest that swept the nation in 2022 to 2023 over the death of Mahsa Amini, who died in the custody of Iran's morality police for allegedly violating the hijab law.

But, even if smaller, these protests have quickly expanded from an economic focus to broader frustrations, with some protesters chanting "Down with the Islamic Republic" or "Death to the dictator" - a reference to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who has the final say in all state matters.

That presents a ‍challenge for the authorities which have been trying to maintain and nurture the spirit of national unity that emerged during and after the Israeli-US strikes.

A third official said worries were growing in Tehran that "Trump or Israel might take military action against Iran, like what they did in June".

IRAN IS LONGTIME ALLY OF VENEZUELA

Iran, which has for years allied itself with fellow oil producer Venezuela, which like Iran has suffered under years of US sanctions, has condemned Washington's action in Caracas. It has also condemned Trump's statements about Iran.

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said such statements about "Iran's internal affairs amount, under international norms, to nothing more than incitement to violence, incitement to terrorism, and incitement to killing".

On Friday, Trump threatened to intervene if protesters faced violence, declaring: "We are locked and ​loaded and ready to go," though he offered no details on what actions he might ‌take.

The protests threaten what has long been Khamenei's defining priority: preserving the Islamic Republic at any cost. 

In a sign of the leadership's concern, Khamenei on Saturday accused "enemies of the Islamic Republic" of fomenting unrest and warned that "rioters should be put in their place".

WORST UNREST IN THE PAST THREE YEARS

Authorities have attempted to maintain a dual approach to the unrest, saying protests over the economy are legitimate and will be ​met by dialogue, while meeting some demonstrations with tear gas amid violent street confrontations.

However, at least 17 people have been killed in a week, rights groups said on Sunday. 

Authorities have said at least two members of the security services had died and more ⁠than a dozen were injured in the unrest.

The country's clerical establishment is still coming to terms with ‌the 2025 Israeli and US strikes on Iranian nuclear and military targets. 

The attacks, which killed top Revolutionary Guard commanders and nuclear scientists, were launched just a day before a planned sixth round of talks with Washington over Tehran's disputed nuclear ​programme.

Negotiations have stalled since the June conflict, even as both sides insist they remain open to a deal.

Washington and its allies accuse Iran of using its nuclear programme as cover to develop weapons capability, a charge Tehran denies, saying its ambitions are purely peaceful.

LACK OF TANGIBLE SOLUTION

Economic grievances remain at the heart of latest unrest.

Widening disparities between ordinary Iranians and a privileged clerical and security ‍elite, compounded by mismanagement, runaway inflation and corruption - factors even acknowledged by state media - have fuelled public anger.

Witnesses in Tehran, Mashhad and Tabriz reported a heavy security presence in main squares. "You can feel the tense atmosphere in Tehran, but life continues as ⁠normal," said Amir Reza, 47, a carpet shop owner in Tehran's Grand Bazaar.

President Masoud Pezeshkian has urged dialogue and promised reforms to stabilize the monetary and banking systems and protect purchasing power.

Starting Jan 10, the government will provide a monthly stipend of 10,000,000 rials per person (about US$7) in non-cashable electronic ​credit for use in select grocery stores, the semi-official Tasnim news ‌agency reported.

For lower-income households, whose monthly salaries barely exceed US$150, the measure represents a modest but meaningful boost. The rial lost roughly half its value against the dollar in 2025, while official inflation reached ‍42.5 per cent ​in December.