Limited ceasefire on energy targets a necessary step towards ending Russia-Ukraine war, say analysts

A limited ceasefire deal - where Ukraine and Russia temporarily halt attacks on energy targets - is a necessary first step towards ending the three-year-long war, said observers. 

United States President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Wednesday (Mar 19) agreed to work together to end Russia's war with Ukraine. 

In an hour-long phone call, which marked their first conversation since their Feb 28 Oval Office meeting descended into a shouting match, both leaders agreed that officials would meet in Saudi Arabia in the coming days for a second round of peace talks. 

HALTING ATTACKS ON ENERGY TARGETS

This comes a day after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a 30-day pause on energy strikes, following his talks with Trump on Tuesday.

Zelenskyy confirmed the following day that he was ready to reciprocate and halt attacks on Russian infrastructure.

“It's important that we're making progress towards a peace settlement, and it shows that the United States is going to be a pretty key player in shaping the form of the solution to this issue,” said Harold James, director of the contemporary European politics and society programme at Princeton University.

However, this so-called “energy truce” looked to be in doubt on Wednesday. 

Moscow said Ukraine had struck an oil depot in southern Russia, while Kyiv said Russia had knocked out power to some of its railways.

James cautioned that there are no credible guarantees and that “things are still very much in the air”. 

“It's not a complete ceasefire, so people are still going to be fighting on the ground. It's just that the energy infrastructure is not going to be destroyed,” he told CNA’s Asia First. 

“But it will be important that this is the framework within which some kind of negotiation can take place for a ceasefire, and maybe an eventual freezing of the conflict.”

Zelenskyy described the conversation with Trump as “a positive, very substantive, and frank conversation”, while the American leader said it was a "very good telephone call" . 

The Ukrainian leader had requested for more air defence support, to which Trump said he would help source the necessary military equipment in Europe, according to the White House.

Trump also briefed Zelenskyy on his lengthy call with Putin on Tuesday, in which the Russian rejected a full 30-day ceasefire that Ukraine was ready to accept but agreed to a pause to strikes on Ukrainian energy targets. 

RUNNING OUT OF OPTIONS

On the significant turn in ties between Zelenskyy and Trump after their Oval Office clash, James stressed that it is “a complicated balancing act”. 

“I hope that there is some recognition that the Feb 28 meeting was counterproductive,” he added. “It didn't do anything, for instance, to get Russia to negotiate more seriously.”

The Ukrainians have very little choice at the moment, said Klaus Larres, distinguished professor of history and international affairs at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

“(Zelenskyy) could not say no. He tried to push for a larger ceasefire, but of course, at this point in time, this is not possible,” he told CNA938. 

“Hopefully, that partial ceasefire is the beginning of something bigger. And I think that is also what Zelenskyy was hoping - that at least a partial ceasefire is a step in the right direction.”

During the call, Trump suggested to Zelenskyy the US could help run, and possibly own, Ukraine’s nuclear power plants.

“I don't think it's implausible at all. We very often have plants in many countries that are operated by foreign countries,” said Princeton University’s James.

“If indeed this is somewhere where the United States has a strategic interest, the thought is that Russia will be more hesitant in attacking those facilities. And so in that sense, an American presence gives some kind of security.”

However, Larres pointed out that it is forbidden under Ukrainian law to privatise power plants. 

“But of course, there are other means in which the Americans could be involved - by co-running the power plants, by being involved in the management of the power plants,” he said. 

“That shows that Trump is, above all, interested in economic benefits, in making economic gains from the war in Ukraine.”

IS RUSSIA SINCERE ON PEACE?

Meanwhile, the analysts said Russia believes it has an edge on the battlefield and at the negotiating table. 

“Putin seems to want to delay any real ceasefire, any real peace talks because at the moment, the Russians, militarily, have the upper hand, but not by a huge way,” said Larres. 

“They are conquering little slivers of territory all the time which, of course, from a Ukrainian point of view, is quite depressing.”

Analysts said the Russians are unlikely to agree to a full ceasefire except on their terms, including an end to all Western military aid and intelligence to Ukraine and establishing control of lands that they claim to be theirs.

James said it was “really unthinkable” to him that Ukraine could be left without any defence whatsoever.

“A lot of the defence that is provided is not in the form of material assistance, but in the form of intelligence. So you really need to keep this in order to make the security of Ukraine in the future credible,” he added.

As for how sincere Putin is about working towards peace, Larres said the Russian leader is a “skillful negotiator” who believes he now has the upper hand.

“There's no need for him to come to a quick peace deal, so why should he then not delay such talks?” Larres added. 

“He certainly wants to be back on the world stage as an equal partner to the US, but he doesn't really want to offer any concessions in return or as few concessions as he can get away with.”

Yet observers believe Trump is prepared to go far to broker this peace deal. 

“Trump seems to be impatient, and he doesn't seem to be a very patient negotiator who takes his time,” said Larres, adding that the US president is mostly interested in going down in world history as a peacemaker. 

“He wants to achieve peace as quickly as he can. He certainly doesn't want to wait many, many months. He wants to come to a conclusion of the war very quickly, and Putin will exploit that.”