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Kim holds upper hand in Putin meeting as Russia needs North Korean artillery for Ukraine War efforts: Experts

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un arrived in Russia early Tuesday (Sep 12) to meet with President Vladimir Putin for arms talks amid a warning from the United States.

 Kim holds upper hand in Putin meeting as Russia needs North Korean artillery for Ukraine War efforts: Experts
A TV screen shows an image of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un (left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) during a news programme in Seoul. (Photo: AP/Ahn Young-joon)

SINGAPORE: The development of the bilateral relationship between Russia and North Korea will have broader implications on the global sanctions regime imposed on Pyongyang, experts told CNA on Tuesday (Sep 12).

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un arrived in Russia early Tuesday to meet with his counterpart Vladimir Putin with arms talks on the agenda. 

The United States had earlier warned Kim that providing weapons to Russia "is not going to reflect well on North Korea and they will pay a price for this in the international community".

With Moscow turning to Pyongyang for much-needed artillery ammunition due to the interoperability between their military hardware, experts said North Korea could receive Russian space technology and nuclear submarine technology in return, helping the country close its capabilities gap.

NORTH KOREAN STOCK

Russia needs another source of artillery ammunition to sustain its military strategy, Associate Professor Matthew Sussex, visiting fellow at the Australian National University’s Strategic & Defence Studies Centre, told CNA’s Asia Now on Tuesday (Sep 12).

“One of the things that the Russian military doctrine has relied on whether they are advancing or whether they are trying to prevent counter offensives is the use of a lot of artillery fire,” he said.

“When Ukrainian forces have been spotted, even in small numbers, the Russians have rained an enormous amount of artillery fire down on them.”

The Russians fired about 12 million artillery shells at the Ukrainians last year and about 7 million so far this year, noted Assoc Prof Sussex.

“With domestic production really only at about two-and-a-half-million shells per annum, there's a massive shortfall that it needs to make up, if it is to have the hope of continuing to prosecute this war for the foreseeable future,” he said.

Russia's military strategy relies heavily on the use of artillery fire. (AP Photo/Libkos)

Russia’s ability to hold up the Ukrainians a little further would depend on whether it can source the needed ammunition from the North Koreans, he added.

Dr Alexey Muraviev, Associate Professor of national security and strategic studies at Curtin University, said North Korea may be viewed as a source of additional artillery munitions and mortar shells given the interoperability in hardware between the two countries. A lot of North Korean military technology is based on the Soviet design or Chinese clones of Soviet technology.

“The Russians increased the production of their primary weaponry, but simply, the sheer scale and the intensity of the conflict is something that I think neither of the warring sides were able to calculate properly,” he told CNA’s Asia Now on Tuesday, adding that Russia had also approached Iran for the supply of unmanned aerial vehicles.

Assoc Prof Sussex noted that Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu was in Pyongyang about two months ago seeking a similar type of deal, and it appears North Korean leader Kim has agreed to discussions in exchange for face time with Vladimir Putin.

“The fact that Putin is prepared to allow this, I think, is quite significant in terms of how much Moscow needs North Korean help,” he said.

BROADER GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS

Russia’s dealings with North Korea may have broader impacts on the international sanctions regime imposed on Pyongyang in an attempt to halt its nuclear missile programme, said Dr Muraviev.

In exchange for the artillery stock, the Russians could provide North Korea with agricultural produce such as grain and wheat, which they have considerable stockpiles of.

However, they could also transfer high-end military technology or dual use technology to Pyongyang as well, said Dr Muraviev.

“By resuming the transfers of some sensitive technologies, the Russians would effectively indicate that they are pulling out of the international sanctions regime,” he said.

A TV screen in Seoul shows an image of a North Korean missile launch during a news programme in July this year. (AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon)

Such technologies would include some of Russia's space technology, nuclear submarine technology, as well as air defence systems.

“The Russians can obviously offer the North Koreans capabilities that would allow Pyongyang to close some technology shortfalls or gaps that currently exist and North Koreans cannot really proceed on, in exchange obviously for what the Russians may be wanting,” he said.

Assoc Prof Sussex said that should a deal come to fruition, it would effectively be “a coming out party” for North Korea, since Russia has been participating in the United Nations Security Council sanctions against Pyongyang for its nuclear testing.

“That would really set a dangerous precedent that other countries like China might be tempted to follow,” he said.

He noted that North Korea would also likely ask for “a hefty amount of cash” as it has the upper hand in the ongoing negotiations, with there being few other countries that Russia can source what they need, especially after China declined.

“Under the circumstances, Kim Jong Un might be tempted to to push his luck a little further and see what he can extract from Russia in terms of the ability to modernise the North Korean military,” said Assoc Prof Sussex.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un might be tempted to to push his luck a little further and see what he can extract from Russia in terms of the ability to modernise the North Korean military. (Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service via AP, File)

ROLE OF CHINA

Dr Muraviev said it remains to be seen if the current resumption of Russia and North Korea’s bilateral relationship would “transpire into something a bit more substantial and long lasting”.

He said that North Korean leader Kim’s family “has a very strong and long-lasting relationship with the Soviets and the Russians, and there is a degree of personal affinity towards Moscow in the eyes of North Korea's leadership”.

“The trust may well actually allow Pyongyang to develop a more trusted relationship with the Russians also on the basis that Russia has been pivotal to ensuring North Korean sovereignty in the past in its capacity of being the Soviet union,” said Dr Muraviev.

He added that there has not been an overwhelming dependency as in the case of the relationship between North Korean and China.

Chinese President Xi Jinping. (GIANLUIGI GUERCIA/Pool via REUTERS)

While North Korea may be guided by some of the directives from China, its main source of economic aid and political support, it will not listen unconditionally to Beijing and instead act in its own interests.

“North Korea itself is famously resistant to international pressure, whether it comes from the West, whether it comes from Russia, and frankly, whether it comes from the Chinese as well,” said Assoc Prof Sussex.

“There have been times in the past when Beijing has cut off the aid tap to Pyongyang, and the North Koreans have simply ignored it.”

IMPACT ON RUSSIA

While Washington has threatened more sanctions on Russia should a deal be agreed with North Korea, it would have a mixed impact on Russian President Putin’s regime, Assoc Prof Sussex said.

“In terms of political pressure on the elites that surround Vladimir Putin, (it will have) very little influence whatsoever. Things like travel bans and so forth are regarded in Russia kind of as a badge of honor, if not a kind of loyalty test,” he said.

While Washington has threatened more sanctions on Russia, it would have a mixed impact on Russian President Putin’s regime. (Pavel Bednyakov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)

However, it would put economic pressure on Russian consumers.

“A good example here is aviation spare parts, with the Russian domestic fleet not being able to be serviced by Boeing and Airbus, which is where the majority of their planes come from,” said Assoc Prof Sussex.

“They have to cannibalise those planes in order to keep a few of them flying, and so it's those types of targeted sanctions that can have an effect.”

He added that imposing sanctions on other nations that trade with Russia in order to help its war effort, could also have an impact.

Russia’s approaching North Korea for supplies in itself is unlikely to affect the reputation of its military complex, said Dr Muraviev.

The Ukrainians have been backed by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), along with the United States. (REUTERS/Yves Herman/File Photo)

“What would have a potentially detrimental impact on Russia's perception as a supplier of military technology, is if it ends up suffering military defeat at the hands of the Ukrainians backed by the United States and NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization),” he said.

“Any battlefield successes will definitely be converted into marketing success for both warring parties. So I don't think that the particular situation of Russia trying to require something it currently lacks, would have any negative impact.”

Source: CNA/fk(ja)
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