Russia's mercenary revolt: Putin’s strongman image punctured in unexpected mutiny, say experts

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s grip on power may be shaken by the episode with the Wagner mercenary force, but he still holds control in the country with the support of its key security pillars, according to experts.

But experts were nonetheless surprised by the turn of events, as it has impacted Mr Putin’s strongman image upon which he built his regime.

In what was deemed the country's most serious security crisis in decades, Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin staged a revolt against Russia on Saturday (Jun 24), after claiming the Russian army deliberately attacked his forces.

The mercenary group seized key military facilities in Rostov-on-Don, the headquarters of Russia’s southern military district, before heading north to threaten the capital Moscow.

However, Mr Prigozhin backed down hours later after negotiations with the leader of Belarus. He is reportedly going into exile in Belarus, where he and his fighters will avoid heavy repercussions which President Putin had initially announced.

Experts noted that Belarus is run by a Putin ally, President Alexander Lukashenko, and is not actually a safe place for Mr Prigozhin to go.

SURPRISING DEVELOPMENT

While there are always surprises in dictatorships due to their inherent unpredictability, “this was indeed abrupt”, said Dr Aurel Braun, professor of International Relations and Political Science at the University of Toronto, on Monday.

“These are not transparent regimes, and they operate, especially in the case of Russia which sure is so corrupt, on a different kind of level than even normal dictatorships,” he told CNA’s Asia First.

He said Mr Prigozhin had miscalculated the support he thought he would receive from elements in the Russian military.

Yet it is still “remarkable” how his forces managed to take over Russia’s southern military district of Rostov-on-Don.

Prof Braun said it was surprising how Mr Putin swung from levelling the harshest accusations of betrayal and treason against the Wagner group and Mr Prigozhin, to announcing that there would be no charges and they could go free after reaching a compromise, in the span of a few hours.

“And in this kind of rule that Putin has, this personalist rule, this is definitely a sign of weakness,” he noted.

Syracuse University political science professor Brian Taylor, who is also the director of Moynihan Institute of Global Affairs, said: “Honestly, it was 100 per cent a surprise to me.”

“You're right that Prigozhin has been quite a loud mouth over the last six weeks or so, attacking the Minister of Defence and the Chief of the General Staff in very personal terms, accusing them of mismanaging the war (and) accusing them of corruption. But this was an act beyond anything I would have anticipated,”  he told CNA938 on Monday.

He said that Mr Prigozhin is totally dependent on Mr Putin as he does not hold any official position of power, and would have understood that trying to negotiate would leave the Russian president outraged.

PUTIN’S GRIP ON POWER

At the moment, Mr Putin has prevailed, as the three main factions - the security services, the military, and the National Guard - appeared to stand with him throughout the episode, said Prof Braun.

“What Putin has done is to try to pit one faction against another, and he would be the ultimate arbiter and decider, and he would be unchallenged, invincible (and) invulnerable,” he explained.

While Mr Putin should take some lessons from this episode, Prof Braun is not convinced he has as “that is not his character and that is not the nature of his rule”.

“The lesson that he ought to learn is that to run a country properly, you need to engage in the art of political compromise. But he cannot be an absolute leader and compromise at the same time,” he said.

He said Mr Putin’s type of rule is founded on his “aura of invulnerability”, something which has been punctured after he was forced to compromise with Mr Prigozhin.

“So more than likely, he will try to reinforce his rule. He will try to clamp down on any other possible dissent. He will shift the blame. He will try to find scapegoats, and this may well cause more tension,” he added. 

Prof Braun added that if civil turmoil erupts in Russia, then it “would not be entirely surprising” if the country undergoes a change in leadership.

He added that while Mr Prigozhin is supposed to go into exile in Belarus, the country is controlled by an ally of President Putin, so it would not be “a particularly safe place” for him.

Prof Taylor said that the developments have been quite damaging for Mr Putin.

After all, a private mercenary army was allowed to make a move on Moscow relatively unhindered before the deal was brokered, portraying a “very striking image of paralysis of the Russian state”.

However, Prof Taylor said he does not think Mr Putin is “in any imminent risk” yet.

“The emperor might not be naked, but I think he's been reduced to his underwear by these events,” he said.

FOREIGN COUNTERPARTS

Prof Braun said Russian allies or countries that have engaged heavily with Russia will now be taking a careful look at the risks involved.

“This regime is much more unstable than it looks. Vladimir Putin is much less a reliable ally than it seems to be. Any assumption that these countries may have made that they can count on a long-term stable relationship, ought to be very carefully examined,” he said.

While western countries are not investing in Russia, Chinese, Indian and other firms that do should think about the long-term political implications of this challenge.

He said the Wagner episode has demonstrated a fundamental weakness on the part of Mr Putin’s rule, which he described as “almost like an organised crime syndicate”, and making reference to the Godfather films and Soprano television shows.