Dramatic ouster of Qin Gang underscores ‘uncertainty, lack of transparency’ in China’s political system: Analysts
Mr Qin was once regarded as a rising star of the Chinese Communist Party and a close confidant of Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
China's foreign minister Qin Gang was removed from office on Tuesday (Jul 25), state media reported, after disappearing from the public eye for a month. (Photo: AFP/Thomas Peter)
The abrupt ousting of Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang after a one-month absence from public duties has underscored the unpredictability and lack of transparency in China’s political system, said observers.
The 57-year-old was removed from his post by Beijing's top lawmaking body on Tuesday (Jul 25) after just seven months on the job, bringing an end to speculation about what had happened after he disappeared from public view – which analysts say is highly unusual for the face of Chinese diplomacy.
But the reason for Mr Qin’s disappearance is still not known. The foreign ministry had earlier cited health reasons, while some rumours online claimed he was being investigated for an alleged affair with a television news personality.
QIN GANG’S DISAPPEARANCE CONTINUES TO BAFFLE
“I think people are thinking maybe there's some wrongdoing, maybe there's a party purge of some sort,” said Associate Professor Chong Ja Ian of the Department of Political Science at the National University of Singapore (NUS).
“We would presume that if some wrongdoing or purge was happening, we would eventually know. But at this point, there is just really no evidence.”
The disappearance “continues to baffle”, he told CNA’s Asia First on Wednesday.
“It really underscores the opacity of the PRC (People's Republic of China) system, which suggests a certain degree of arbitrariness, a high degree of uncertainty, and that's part of the PRC system we have to live with.”
Notably, the Chinese Foreign Ministry has removed all references of Mr Qin from its online records.
“So this is another sort of perplexing element,” said Dr Chong, whose teaching and research focus on international relations including Chinese foreign policy.
“The situation with Mr Qin is sort of a puzzle wrapped in a mystery, wrapped in a box. So there's a lot of speculation, but very, very little clarity.”
Before this, Mr Qin – regarded as a close confidant of Chinese leader Xi Jinping and a rising star of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) – had often been featured in state media meeting foreign leaders and defending China’s position on the global stage.
His disappearance for the past month indicates the sensitivity of the issue, said Dr Chen Gang, assistant director and senior research fellow at the NUS’ East Asian Institute.
“I think the top leadership is still thinking about how to handle the whole incident, and how to make the announcement to the public, not only to the domestic audience but also to the world as well.”
IMPACT ON CHINA’S FOREIGN POLICY
However, the sudden change “can have a very long-term impact upon China's foreign policy as well as the mentality of diplomats”, he told CNA’s Asia Now.
Mr Qin, who spent his whole career in China's diplomatic service, became one of the country's youngest foreign ministers on his appointment in December 2022, after a brief stint as envoy to the United States.
His promotion to the foreign minister position had indicated the urgency of the Chinese government to improve relations with Western countries, especially with the US, suggested observers.
“So we can see from Qin Gang’s background that he's very familiar with Western countries. He has worked in those regions for a very long time,” said Dr Chen, whose research interests include China's political economy and international relations.
“And it seems that he did quite a good job when he was in the United States. And we do see some kind of significant improvement between the two superpowers in recent months.”
Mr Qin’s meteoric rise through the diplomatic ranks has been partly attributed to his closeness to Chinese President Xi.
He had overseen many of Mr Xi’s recent foreign visits, “hence the personal relationship”, said Dr Chong, adding that the latest episode, however, shows that one can fall out with the top leader even if they are favoured.
“Some say that it is a demonstration that even if you have close ties to the top leader, you're not immune. Others will say that it's really a function of the system working.
“The Chinese system is so opaque at this point in time, it leaves lots of people guessing. It creates uncertainty and a certain uneasiness for dealing with the PRC.”
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WANG YI RETURNS TO LEAD CHINA'S FOREIGN MINISTRY
The outspoken Mr Qin has since been replaced by his predecessor and China's top diplomat Wang Yi, 69.
Mr Wang, who had held the foreign minister role for about 10 years until the end of 2022, is a seasoned diplomat who has dealt with many foreign leaders, “so he would be as smooth a transition as you can imagine”, said Dr Chong.
“He is a loyal executor of Xi's will. So I suppose that's what we'll see and that's probably what people should expect.”
Dr Chen noted that Mr Wang, a career diplomat and fluent Japanese speaker, is more familiar with Asian affairs and has “very good connections” with Asian leaders and diplomats, especially in Southeast Asia and in East Asia.
“Wang taking charge of Qin Gang's work may indicate a future shift of China's foreign policy from western countries to Asian countries and to neighbouring regions,” he added.
Observers believe Mr Wang’s reappointment will not be a temporary one.
“Usually this kind of position will not just last for a few months. And also now we all know that China's foreign policies are facing a lot of challenges,” said Dr Chen.
“The job is not an easy job. So I do think that Wang Yi probably, if he can do the job quite well, he can stay in that position for quite some time.”
Despite being replaced as foreign minister, Mr Qin still retains his position as a state councillor, observers pointed out.
“That creates a lot of speculation. Some people claim that it is evidence that he is really of ill health. So they are not removing him from seniority. It is removing him from the duty, so he can recover,” said Dr Chong.
Others believe Mr Qin will be removed from his remaining positions later on as part of the disciplinary process, he added.
“I would expect to see more of this sort of pattern, as there's a will to sort of move Qin Gang away from public memory and public attention.”
