Efforts to oust Anwar-backing defectors could spell further doom for Muhyiddin’s Bersatu party, analysts warn

SINGAPORE: The decision by the opposition Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) to turn the screws on six of its Members of Parliament (MP) who have pledged support for the government could backfire and further doom the party, analysts told CNA.

This comes after Bersatu said on Mar 2 it has amended its constitution to automatically kick out MPs who defy the party position, in a move it said was aimed at preventing the government from stealing its MPs and its own members from exploiting a legal loophole to support other political parties.

The amendment is subject to approval from the Registrar of Societies (RoS) and can be challenged in court in a lengthy legal process with every chance of being struck down.

Currently, six Bersatu MPs - Dr Zulkafperi Hanapi (Tanjong Karang), Mr Zahari Kechik (Jeli), Mr Iskandar Dzulkarnain Abdul Khalid (Kuala Kangsar), Mr Syed Abu Hussin Hafiz Syed Abdul Fasal (Bukit Gantang), Mr Suhaili Abdul Rahman (Labuan) and Mr Mohd Azizi Abu Naim (Gua Musang) - have pledged support for Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim in return for constituency allocations.

The internal strife comes as Bersatu president Muhyiddin Yassin is embroiled in his own legal battle, after the Court of Appeal overturned his acquittal in a RM232.5 million (US$49.5 million) graft case. A former prime minister, Muhyiddin is trying to solidify his leadership of Bersatu as the lynchpin party of the Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition.

Muhyiddin has said that Bersatu’s constitutional amendment, if approved by the RoS, will compel the six MPs to vacate their seats and trigger a by-election, in line with the anti-hopping law enshrined in the Federal Constitution.

But Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Azmi Hassan told CNA that while the anti-hopping law applies to MPs who quit their party, it does not specify regarding MPs who have been dismissed by their party.

“The six Bersatu members will lose their membership, but again they can be independent and keep their seats. So, there is no benefit for Bersatu in this case,” he said.

Dr Azmi said the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), which Bersatu splintered from, had the foresight to make its election candidates sign an agreement before the 2022 national polls to adhere to the party’s position at all times.

“It looks like UMNO can think for the future, compared to Bersatu which is in a predicament right now,” he added.

“It makes Bersatu look foolish when compared to UMNO, that their constitutional amendment will do nothing to stop the six (defectors).”

Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi of Universiti Malaya said Bersatu’s top leaders tweaked the party constitution as they were “panicking” about more of their MPs and state assemblymen potentially flocking to support Mr Anwar.

“If its members express support for the government en masse, this will quicken the pace of Bersatu’s downfall,” he said.

Dr Awang Azman said legal challenges could take two to three years to make their way through the courts. And if the amendment is struck down later, this may lead to even more members defecting from the party. Bersatu may then risk losing "political relevance", said Dr Awang Azman.

Some of the six MPs have expressed confidence the RoS will not approve the party’s proposed constitutional amendments, as they feel it violates their rights as MPs with duties towards their constituents. Others have said they will challenge any approval in court.

Mr Syed Abu Hussin Hafiz - the MP for Bukit Gantang - told local media that other Bersatu lawmakers with intentions of supporting Mr Anwar should come forward and not be afraid of the amendment. “For us, we will continue to be firm and will not vacate any seats until (court) decides,” he said.

PN TRIUMPH IN POTENTIAL BY-ELECTION?

But if the threat of vacating their seats becomes clearer, Sunway University political analyst Wong Chin Huat said the six MPs could retract their allegiance to Mr Anwar, as they might not be confident of winning in a by-election without the backing of PN.

Dr Wong feels PN will likely win all of the seats except Labuan, a federal territory in Sabah which he believes “needs federal funding more than party ideology”.

“UMNO may have a slim chance in Selangor (where the federal seat of Tanjong Karang is located), but PN would likely retain the seats in Kelantan (Gua Musang and Jeli) and upper Perak (Bukit Gantang and Kuala Kangsar),” he said.

Dr Wong said PN would seize the chance to contest a by-election as a platform to campaign on hot button issues likely to cast a negative light on Mr Anwar and his administration, like the depreciating ringgit and the rise in sales and service tax.

“If I were Anwar, I would just tell the defectors to withdraw their support now and vote with the government only when necessary,” he added.

Still, UMNO president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi has told local media that Barisan Nasional (BN) is prepared to try wresting back the six seats if they are declared vacant, noting that the seats used to belong to BN.

While Dr Azmi acknowledged this, he said UMNO should allow Bukit Gantang incumbent Mr Syed Abu Hussin Hafiz to contest the seat again as he is “very popular” on the ground.

But he said the Kelantan seats of Gua Musang and Jeli might be out of reach for UMNO as Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS), another PN component party, is “very strong” there.

For UMNO to win in these two seats, once considered its traditional strongholds, the party would also need votes from Pakatan Harapan (PH) supporters, no matter how few they are in Kelantan, Dr Azmi said.

The analyst observed that during the six state elections last August, PH supporters had abstained from voting in a lot of state seats where the government had fielded an UMNO instead of PH candidate, despite the two supposedly working together.

PN ended up making further inroads in traditional government strongholds, while increasing their stranglehold in their home bases of Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu.

“So whether UMNO can wrest back these six seats, it very much depends on Pakatan Harapan supporters … I think UMNO needs all the help in this case,” Dr Azmi added.

GROWING RIFT WITHIN PN

In the bigger picture, the Bersatu defections have “further driven a wedge” in a deepening rift within PN, noted Associate Professor Azmil Tayeb of Universiti Sains Malaysia in a Mar 6 article for the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.

The analyst pointed to how PAS, during the six state elections, won 72 per cent of the seats that PN had claimed, highlighting a balance of power within PN that “strongly tilts” towards the Islamist party. 

“There is a strong perception that PAS is playing the role of a big brother in PN with Bersatu being its sidekick,” Assoc Prof Azmil wrote.

Still, he said there is a limit to how much PAS can achieve as a solo competitor, citing how it only managed to gain a foothold in states like Selangor, Penang and Perak - beyond its usual bases in Kelantan and Terengganu - when it teamed up with PH parties under the Pakatan Rakyat coalition from 2008 to 2015.

“When it contested on its own in 2018, PAS went back to being a regional party despite winning a respectable number of seats,” he added

Likewise, Dr Azmi believes PAS needs Bersatu, not to attract Malay voters, but to give these voters confidence that PN can govern the country professionally.

This is because Bersatu has senior members with federal government experience, like its secretary-general and current opposition leader Hamzah Zainudin, as well as its deputy president and former youth and sports minister Ahmad Faizal Azumu.

“Another thing is that PAS needs Bersatu to attract non-Malay voters because the support of the Malay voters towards PAS has reached a saturation point,” he said.

“That’s the reason why I see PAS will not abandon Perikatan Nasional, even though Bersatu is very, very weak right now.”

MUHYIDDIN’S LEGAL TROUBLES

Dr Wong said PAS has always been using the opposition coalition to put it in the “mainstream”. “That's why they back Muhyiddin as the coalition boss, for his credentials as a former PM,” he said.

But Dr Azmi said Muhyiddin’s corruption charges could prove to be a “little bit of a problem” as he prepares to defend his presidency.

Last November at Bersatu’s national assembly, Muhyiddin made headlines when he revealed he would not defend his presidency at party polls expected in late 2024, only to make a U-turn a day later by saying he will stay another term at the wish of Bersatu members.

“But if used correctly to say he’s a political victim of Dato’ Seri Anwar Ibrahim, he can win handsomely during the Bersatu election,” Dr Azmi said.

Following the Court of Appeal’s decision to overturn Muhyiddin’s acquittal by the High Court, his defence team filed a notice of appeal in the Federal Court. But the prosecution is arguing that the Court of Appeal is the apex court in this case, as the charges were first brought in the lowest Sessions Court.

If the prosecution is seen as partisan with the trial being politically motivated, Dr Wong said Muhyiddin could benefit from the Malays' sympathy as the “persecuted underdog”.

But he said the legal troubles would also deny Muhyiddin the image of being “clean and stable”, a slogan used for PN’s election campaign that PAS has fully bought into.

“If Muhyiddin loses his popularity, PAS would rather present their own PM candidate,” he said, referring to how they could push Terengganu chief minister Ahmad Samsuri Mokhtar - a technocrat known as Dr Sam - for the top post.

PAS leaders have recently signalled they are ready to reinvent the party’s image and leadership by putting forth a new generation professional leader at the federal level, like Dr Sam, who clinched the Kemaman federal seat in a by-election last December.

“PAS would prefer to present their own Dr Sam over Hamzah (Zainudin), at least to make voters familiar with a PAS PM candidate,” Dr Wong said.