Malaysia state elections: PH-BN relations face stern test in Negeri Sembilan as PN eyes upset

SEREMBAN, Negeri Sembilan: The upcoming state elections in Negeri Sembilan will feel strange for voters like Ikmal Syafiq.

The state, located in the western part of Peninsular Malaysia, has traditionally been a hotbed of political activity.

Recent polls in the state saw fierce contests primarily between candidates from Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN).

At the 15th General Election (GE15) in November 2022, the eight parliamentary seats in Negeri Sembilan saw BN win five while PH clinched the remaining three.

No other parties, including the federal opposition coalition Perikatan Nasional, hold any federal or state seats in the state.  

The Election Commission is expected to announce the nomination and polling days for the six state polls of Negeri Sembilan, Selangor, Penang, Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu in the coming weeks.   

Ahead of the six state elections, PH and BN will be working together under a pact of cooperation, similar to its alliance at the federal level. 

Ikmal, who has lived in Rembau, Negeri Sembilan all his life, told CNA: “I think it feels especially weird for Negeri Sembilan because PH and BN have been enemies for so long here. The rivalry is strong. Voters and communities are divided across the two sides.” 

“The two are also ideologically very different. It will be interesting to see how they work together,” said the 42-year-old business owner. 

While most stakeholders in Negeri Sembilan expect the pact of PH-BN to retain control of Negeri Sembilan at the polls, many anticipate that the campaign will be a stern test on whether the two coalitions are able to work together effectively. 

Meanwhile, the Perikatan Nasional coalition will also be looking to gain some ground in Negeri Sembilan, especially in areas where Malay Muslim voters form the large majority. 

SEAT NEGOTIATIONS BETWEEN PH, BN A POSSIBLE POINT OF CONTENTION? 

One area that could potentially be a point of contention between PH and BN in Negeri Sembilan is the seat distributions between the two coalitions ahead of the state polls. 

BN Negeri Sembilan chief Jalaluddin Alias has been reported by local media as saying that the coalition is asking for PH to give up two incumbent seats.

This is so that BN and PH would head into the state polls challenging 18 seats each. 

There are 36 seats in total in the Negeri Sembilan state assembly, with PH currently holding 20 and BN the remaining 16. The Negeri Sembilan state assembly will be dissolved on Jul 1.

“As I told my friends in Harapan, this is the time for us to make sacrifices. Give and take in the spirit of cooperation because we want our machinery to be motivated to the maximum for both Harapan and BN,” Jalaluddin was quoted as saying by Malaysiakini.

In a recent interview with The Star, the incumbent chief minister for Negeri Sembilan Aminuddin Harun reportedly said that PH’s “only” request was that status quo be maintained and that both coalitions be allowed to defend the seats they won in the last state polls in 2018. 

However, the Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) vice-president also noted that BN was asking for two state assembly seats to be allocated to them. He said that the two seats, which have a high proportion of Malay voters, are currently held by Parti Amanah Nasional (Amanah), a PH component party.

Aminuddin did not specify what the two seats were. Amanah politicians are the incumbent in three state seats - Lenggeng, Paroi and Klawang.

“The Pakatan and Barisan Presidential Council will decide and we will all abide by the decisions,” Aminuddin reportedly said. 

BN politician Zaifulbahri Idris, a three-term state assemblyman for the Chembong seat, told CNA that Jalaluddin's request for BN and PH to contest 18 seats each is part of “the process of bargaining and negotiations”.

“As we are making a request, we ask for the most that we can. Whether it's given or not, that’s up to the leadership (of BN and PH). If the request is not given, we will deal with it for the good of the agreement between both coalitions,” he added.  

“What’s important for this election is that there is an understanding between the two coalitions. If a certain area is contested by a BN candidate, PH will help (in campaigning efforts). And vice versa, if the candidate is from PH, BN will help. So the understanding is that we do not clash,” said Zaifulbahri. 

Meanwhile, some PH politicians in Negeri Sembilan who spoke to CNA acknowledged that there were disagreements with BN over seat distribution. However, they also pledge to adhere to the final decision of party leaders on the matter. 

Arul Kumar, the Democratic Action Party (DAP) state assemblyman for Nilai, told CNA: “The seat negotiations are finalised by our leaders at the national level so we will abide by any decision made there. But the principle of seat distributions as I know it is that the party who won the seat in the last General Election will be allowed to defend the seat."

“Based on what happened in 2018, DAP won 11 seats, PKR six seats and Amanah three seats. PH should hopefully be allowed to defend these seats for the coming election,” added Kumar, who is also political secretary to DAP secretary-general and Transport Minister Anthony Loke. 

DAP is a component party within PH. 

Political analyst James Chin, who is Professor of Asian Studies at the University of Tasmania and Senior Fellow at the Jeffrey Cheah Institute on Southeast Asia, told CNA that such negotiations are common before nomination day as political parties are keen to contest the maximum number of seats. 

“It’s not possible that PH would settle for 18-18 in Negeri Sembilan because the golden rule in these negotiations is that if the party won the seat in the last polls, it should be allowed to defend it,” he added. 

SPECULATION OVER CHIEF MINISTER CANDIDATE 

Aside from negotiations for seats, there is speculation that both PH and BN coalitions are keen to ensure their candidates clinch the state’s chief minister post, and overall leadership of the Negeri Sembilan government if the PH-BN alliance wins the polls. 

PN’s Negeri Sembilan chairman Ahmad Faizal Azumu told CNA in an interview that based on what he has surveyed on the ground, the issue of who will be the PH-BN chief minister candidate could be a matter that divides their supporters. 

“Some local United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) leaders are hoping for Jalaluddin Alias to become the next chief minister. UMNO would think that they can do that but how will PH (reconcile this)?

“In GE14 they managed to wrest control of the state and (PKR’s) Aminuddin is now the chief minister. You think they will simply give the Chief Ministership to Jalaluddin? I don’t think so,” said Ahmad Faizal, who is deputy president of Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu). 

Ahmad Faizal lost his parliamentary seat of Tambun in Perak in GE15 to PH chairman Anwar Ibrahim, who was eventually appointed prime minister. 

When asked if BN was positioning for Jalaluddin to be chief minister, UMNO’s Zaifulbahri told CNA: “Whichever party wins the most seats should have the prerogative to appoint the chief minister. That’s only fair.” 

In his interview with The Star, incumbent chief minister Aminuddin admitted that he was keen on taking up the chief minister or menteri besar (MB) position again if PH-BN wins the state polls. 

“If I am given the opportunity to be the MB – which I am hoping for – I can then continue my programmes and policies to develop the state wholly,” he reportedly said. 

This notion is backed by PH politicians in Negeri Sembilan, including P Gunasekaran, the incumbent state assemblyman for Seremban Jaya. 

Gunasekaran told CNA that Aminuddin has proven his credentials over the last term between 2018 and 2023. 

“He has led this term brilliantly. Over these five years we have achieved 100 per cent of the promises we made in 2018, and he is willing to also work with politicians from BN,” he added. 

Prof Chin told CNA that in the overall picture of the six state elections, it will be “very difficult” to imagine a scenario where BN will be given the chief minister post for Negeri Sembilan.

“It is more likely that BN/UMNO be given the chief minister post if the PH-BN alliance wins in a majority rural Malay heartland like Kedah rather than Negeri Sembilan,” said Prof Chin. 

“I’m not saying it's impossible but just very difficult because I expect PH to win more seats than BN in Negeri Sembilan for the upcoming polls,” he added. 

CAN PN MAKE A DENT IN NEGERI SEMBILAN? 

Amid the uneasy alliance between BN and PH, will PN be able to take advantage and garner enough seats to wrest control of the Negeri Sembilan state legislature? 

Ahmad Faizal, who is former Perak chief minister, told CNA he is optimistic that PN can put up “a good fight”. 

He said that based on results analysis of GE15, PN had strong support from voters in constituencies with a strong Malay majority population even though it lost all the parliamentary seats it contested in Negeri Sembilan. 

Ahmad Faizal noted that PH will likely secure 11 state seats, which he described as “fixed deposit seats” as they were in areas where non-Malays formed a significant portion of the voter population. 

“But PH-BN would still need another eight seats to clinch a simple majority, and for me, the chances of PN clinching each of these Malay seats is almost 50-50,” said Ahmad Faizal, who is commonly known locally by his nickname Peja. 

“There are many Malays in Negeri Sembilan who are upset that UMNO is now collaborating with the DAP (in the federal government) so now I truly believe that the pendulum has swung towards PN in Negeri Sembilan and our chances of clinching the state will be very good if we win the Malay-majority seats,” he added. 

Yet, BN’s incumbent state assemblyman for Chembong, Zaifulbahri told CNA that PN’s claim that it could garner a simple majority in Negeri Sembilan was “unrealistic” given that the coalition has zero seats currently. 

“Each and every party who throws their hats into the ring, they may believe they have a chance to win. I think they are confident,” said Zaifulbahri. 

“But to say they will win 19 seats or more, to me it's not realistic. I do not deny they will win some seats, but nowhere near enough required (for a simple majority),” he added. 

DAP politician Kumar echoed similar sentiments.

The Nilai state assemblyman acknowledged that results extrapolated from GE15 showed that PN might make some headway in two state assembly constituencies of Lenggeng and Bagan Penang. 

However, Kumar maintained that if BN and PH could synergise their efforts and put a united front, the alliance could clinch a clean sweep of all 36 state seats in Negeri Sembilan. 

“I think if PH and BN work together, we can retain the accolade of being the only state in Malaysia without a single PN representative in both parliamentary seats and the state assembly,” said Kumar. 

“But this does not mean we can be comfortable and relaxed. We know that there are challenges to working together, and if we can overcome them, we can achieve this target.”