Thailand could be heading for prolonged political unrest, after election-winning Move Forward party sidelined

Thailand could be in for a prolonged period of political unrest even if a new coalition is in power and the country’s next leader is chosen, after the election-winning Move Forward Party was sidelined from forming the next government, said observers. 

Dr Kevin Hewison, the Weldon E Thornton emeritus distinguished professor of Asian Studies at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, believes more twists and turns will come. 

“So we're in very murky and uncharted waters for Thailand, and there's a lot of closed door dealings going on where the public is left aside,” he told CNA’s Asia First.

“I think that's a potentially dangerous position for the electorate to be put in and for Thai democracy, because if the election doesn't matter and all of the decisions on who's going to be in government are done behind closed doors and through a small elite, it leaves the way open for more radical politics emerging.”

WHEN WILL POLITICAL DEADLOCK END? 

A parliamentary vote to pick Thailand’s new prime minister on Friday (Aug 4) was delayed again, after the Constitutional Court deferred a decision in a case involving the progressive Move Forward Party that won May's election. 

The court on Thursday said it needed more time to review whether it was constitutional for parliament to bar Move Forward party leader Pita Limjaroenrat from being nominated as a prime ministerial candidate a second time.

Meanwhile, Pheu Thai, the second biggest party in an initially agreed eight-party alliance, has since taken over the lead role in forming a government. 

It will now form a new coalition without Move Forward and nominate its candidate, real estate tycoon Srettha Thavisin, as prime minister.

“It's very difficult to see what the new coalition is going to look like or what the vote for Pheu Thai’s prime minister might look like at the moment,” said Dr Hewison, whose research interests include social change in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand.

“There's considerable dissatisfaction amongst Move Forward party supporters, (and) amongst other observers about whether the Pheu Thai party will align with the pro-military parties of the previous regime. If it does that, my prediction would be that there would be considerable unrest.”

After winning the election three months ago, Move Forward had put together an eight-party coalition with 312 seats in the 500-member lower house. 

However, parliament has struggled to name a new prime minister, which requires a majority vote together with the conservative 250-member appointed Senate. 

Mr Pita’s initial attempt to become prime minister last month fell short by more than 50 votes, largely because just 13 senators backed him. He was blocked from another try when parliament voted that he could not submit his name again. 

Many senators, appointed by a previous military government, would not vote for Mr Pita because of his calls to make it illegal to defame Thailand’s royal family.

“There are plenty of countries where the party that comes first in the election doesn't necessarily lead the coalition governments. So that's not unusual,”  said Dr Hewison.

Many Thai voters feel they “have been somehow deceived and that their vote doesn't matter”, he added. 

“And I think this is a problem for political parties going forward… But it's pretty clear that there was not much choice for Pheu Thai. They had to separate from Move Forward if they were going to be able to establish a government again, only because the unelected senators stood in the way.”

HOW POWERFUL IS THE CONSTITUTIONAL COURT?

Democracy in Thailand is now at a difficult point, “but it's a point that was somehow designed by the previous regime”, said Dr Hewison. 

“This, in some ways, was meant to happen to stop a progressive party coming to power, even if it was popular.”

House Speaker Wan Muhamad Noor Matha said the vote for a prime minister would be delayed pending the court's decision.

The postponement shows how “incredibly powerful” the Constitutional Court has become in Thailand, said Dr Hewison. 

“The court has put off a decision, which most pundits thought would be reasonably easy for them to make, to decide on whether there should be a second vote,” he added. 

“So what we're set with now over the next couple of weeks at least, is more backroom dealing, more and probably some increased dissatisfaction with the way that the process is going and a muddle along until something becomes clear. At the moment, almost nothing is clear on where Thailand's politics is going.”

There have been interventions from the Constitutional Court over the years, and several parties have been dissolved by the court, Dr Hewison pointed out. 

“So they're playing a very central role in the formation and the stability of governments within the parliamentary system.”

WHAT IS NEXT FOR THAILAND? 

On Wednesday, Pheu Thai announced that it would form a new coalition without Move Forward, whose platform to reform the royal defamation law made it impossible to rally enough support from other parties and the Senate.

Assistant Professor Surachanee Hammerli Sriyai, lecturer and digital governance track lead from the School of Public Policy at Chiang Mai University, said Pheu Thai is hoping that senators will back its prime minister candidate Mr Srettha, now that Move Forward has been sidelined and “will almost certainly now be an opposition party”. 

“I think Pheu Thai has negotiated enough to make sure that whatever scenario it takes, it will have enough votes,” she told CNA938’s Asia First on Thursday. 

“You have to be sure to finally take this route.”

Pheu Thai’s plan to unveil its new coalition partners on Thursday was postponed following the court’s announcement.

On the chances of a stable government, Dr Hewison said it depends on how the coalition turns out. 

“If Move Forward is in the opposition, the other opposition parties - if the old generals don't come in with - are not gonna be able to operate as a solid block. So you'll have a reasonably stable government with an opposition which is divided,” he added. 

“So they have a chance and Srettha has a chance of a stable government, but it depends a lot on what the final composition of the coalition government is.”