Iran war expected to dominate US-Japan talks as Takaichi lands in Washington

TOKYO: Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is set to meet United States President Donald Trump at the White House, becoming the first major ally to hold face-to-face talks with him since he urged several countries – including Japan – to deploy warships to the Strait of Hormuz.

Security, trade and critical technologies are high on Takaichi’s agenda during meetings in Washington on Thursday (Mar 19).

However, analysts say the ongoing US-Israel war on Iran is likely to dominate discussions instead.

VULNERABLE TO STRAIT DISRUPTIONS

Japan is particularly vulnerable to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 90 per cent of its crude oil imports pass. Any interruption could have immediate consequences for the country’s energy supply.

Iran has effectively closed the key waterway since the war broke out on Feb 28, sending global oil prices up by more than 40 per cent.

Tokyo has also said that 45 Japanese vessels – with two dozen Japanese crew and many other nationalities on board – are stuck in the Persian Gulf, raising concerns over maritime safety and supply chains.

“It’s in our interest that this conflict ends soon, simply for the sake of energy. That's the first message we want to get across, but in a way that doesn't disturb Trump,” said Yoko Iwama, director of the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies’ Strategic Studies Program.

Japan currently holds oil reserves that are estimated to last about 250 days, but a prolonged conflict could strain those supplies.

According to Japanese media reports, Takaichi may propose buying crude oil from Alaska.

Diversifying its energy sources has been Japan’s “objective and headache” since 1973, noted Kuni Miyake, director and special advisor at Tokyo-based think-tank Canon Global Research Institute.

“There have been many reasons for Americans not to export oil from Alaska for domestic or environmental reasons. But it's time to explore that with war in the Gulf,” he added.

Politics and international studies professor Stephen Nagy from the International Christian University pointed out that Japan has already “opened many opportunities” to get energy resources from Alaska and other parts of the US.

Meanwhile, Takaichi also spoke to her Canadian counterpart Mark Carney during his trip to Tokyo earlier this month about energy and critical minerals.

“Will Japan shift its position from Canada to the United States? There's a strong possibility, as the US is for Japan the most important and critical partner for its peace and stability,” Nagy told CNA’s Asia First.

He added that Trump will likely “ask the Japanese to do something” in relation to the Strait of Hormuz, and Takaichi will respond that there are limits in Japanese law as to what it can do.

“I think there's a possibility for Japan to provide some refuelling missions to the US, as long as it's not directly involved in conflict,” Nagy said.

“But again, Japan has to look at involvement in the strait through its domestic law, and whether or not this is the best choice for Japan. And until there is a clear objective established by President Trump … I think it’s going to be difficult to pull Japan into the conflict in Iran in whatever capacity,” he added.

Despite the US being the only nation that Tokyo has a defence alliance with, public opinion in Japan appears to be against Washington’s actions.

A recent poll by major Japanese daily Asahi Shimbun found that 82 per cent of respondents disapproved of US attacks on Iran.

Nevertheless, Takaichi has condemned Iran for attacks on civilian and diplomatic facilities in neighbouring countries and has reiterated her opposition to Tehran’s nuclear programme.

DEFENCE SPENDING

Defence is another key area of discussion, with Trump continuing to push allies to increase military spending and strengthen their defence capabilities.

Some analysts say Japan has already made significant strides.

“We are spending more than 2 per cent (of gross domestic product). It was only 1 per cent a few years ago,” said Ichiro Fujisaki, presidentof The America-Japan Society.

“Japan is acquiring a second-strike capability as well, so I think they are satisfied with Japan’s strong position on defence spending,” Fujisaki, referring to a country’s ability to retaliate after a nuclear attack.

According to reports, Takaichi will convey Japan’s intention to join Trump’s proposed “Golden Dome” missile defence system, aimed at countering China’s military capabilities.

Iwama told CNA that it is “absolutely necessary” for Japan to rethink its air defence.

“There has been massive use of cheap drones, and the number of patriots collected from all over the world has been immense … so I think we need to rethink how we protect ourselves from these missiles and drones,” she added.

TRADE DISCUSSIONS

Trade relations are also expected to be on the table at the talks in Washington.

Since Trump returned to office last year, both countries have engaged in frequent tariff negotiations. Last July, Japan agreed to a US$550 billion investment in exchange for a reduction in tariffs from 25 per cent to 15 per cent.

“As we have committed, we should honour what we have committed”, noted Fujisaki.

Takaichi faces a delicate balancing act in Washington, navigating security concerns, economic interests and domestic political sentiment.

However, analysts say her recent handling of diplomatic tensions – including fallout from remarks on Taiwan – suggests she may be better prepared for what could be one of her most challenging diplomatic tests yet.