First EC land tender under new rules expected to draw healthy interest, slightly lower bids: Analysts
The site at Canberra Drive can yield an estimated 185 housing units. It will be the first EC to have a 10-year minimum occupation period, among other new rules.
The site at Canberra Drive. (Image: Google Street View)
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SINGAPORE: The first executive condominium (EC) Government Land Sales (GLS) tender under new rules is expected to draw healthy interest from developers, although they might bid more conservatively, analysts said.
The site, released for tender by the Housing and Development Board (HDB) on Tuesday (May 26), is located at Canberra Drive.
The site area is about 11,535 square metres with a maximum gross floor area of 18,457 sqm. It can yield an estimated 185 housing units, which is smaller than typical EC launches.
Analysts previously said changes to the policy – the doubling of the minimum occupation period to 10 years, the removal of the Deferred Payment Scheme, and an increased quota and priority period for first-timers – could cool land bids for project sites with tender closing dates on or after May 8.
This would potentially improve affordability for first-time home buyers.
The Canberra Drive site may be the litmus test on developers' confidence after the policy change, said Huttons Asia CEO Mark Yip.
“Even with the policy change on lower allocation to second-timers and longer priority period for first-timers, this well-located site may still see good interest from developers,” he said.
ATTRACTIVE LOCATION
The plot of land up for tender is across two other ECs – the Visionaire and the Brownstone – and next to the condominium Canberra Residences.
Mr Justin Quek, deputy group CEO of Realion (OrangeTee & ETC) Group, highlighted the site’s proximity to Canberra MRT, which is less than a 10-minute walk away.
Other nearby amenities such as Bukit Canberra, Sembawang Shopping Centre and Canberra Plaza can serve the needs of residents, and schools such as Sembawang Primary School and Wellington Primary School will bring added convenience to families with school-going children, he added.
The last EC site sold in the area was at Sembawang Road, which was awarded in September 2025 at a land rate of S$692 (US$542) per square foot per plot ratio (psf ppr).
“Given the highly attractive location of this Canberra Drive site, which is relatively closer to amenities than the earlier plot, we expect developer interest for this site to be healthy. With some time since the last EC was launched in the area, there may be pent-up demand for EC units in Sembawang too,” he added.
Key executive officer at ERA Eugene Lim said future residents may also benefit from long-term plans to redevelop Sembawang Shipyard, which is expected to be transformed into a “live-work-play” district.
But Mr Lim said buyer demand could be diluted by a substantial pipeline of EC launches in the north of Singapore.
They include the projects in Woodlands Drive 17 and Sembawang Road, which are estimated to be previewed in the fourth quarter of the year and add an estimated 685 EC units to the north.
Additional GLS sites at Woodlands Drive 17 and Miltonia Close, which are unaffected by the rule changes, and the upcoming Canberra Drive and Sembawang Drive sites would contribute an extra 1,625 units, he added.
“Over time, this considerable amount of new ECs may diffuse buyer interest among more new launches in the north.
“In a more competitive buyer environment, developers may also prioritise bidding on sites with clearer demand or stronger locational attributes,” he said.
MORE CONSERVATIVE BIDS
In view of the policy changes, analysts said developers could be more cautious in their bids for Canberra Drive.
Ms Wong Siew Ying, head of research and content at PropNex, said developers are likely to factor in assumptions on how the new measures could potentially shift EC demand dynamics
For instance, the allocation of 90 per cent of EC units to first-timers for a priority period of two years may slow the initial take-up rate at the project, given that second-timers used to account for up to 30 per cent of sales within the first month of project launch, she said.
With the MOP extended from five to 10 years, developers may assume that EC demand could soften slightly, as some prospective buyers could be deterred by the longer MOP, she added.
She estimated that the Canberra Drive site may see two to four bids, with a top bid land rate at around S$620 psf ppr to S$660 psf ppr.
Other analysts had slightly wider projections, suggesting bids could start between S$600 and S$650, and up to S$700 psf ppr.
This is slightly lower than the past two tenders at Miltonia Close and Woodlands Drive, which had top bids of S$732 psf ppr and S$794 psf ppr, respectively.
Both those sites had three bids each. They were also bigger developments – Miltonia Close had a site area of 15,451 sqm, while Woodlands Drive had a site area of about 26,980 sqm.
Ms Wong said some developers may not be keen on the Canberra Drive plot in view of its small development size.
Others, like ERA’s Mr Lim, said the lower capital exposure could attract small- to mid-sized developers seeking controlled risk entry into the EC market.
Without the Deferred Payment Scheme, and with first-timers making up a larger share of initial new launch buyers, future ECs may attract a more price-sensitive crowd, he added.
This should prompt developers to bid more cautiously, as higher land costs will make it harder to align EC prices with what buyers can realistically afford, he said.
“We could also see a wider bidding gap emerge as developers gauge the market before new EC pricing benchmarks take shape.”
The tender will close at noon on Oct 1, 2026.
The prices per square foot for ECs have more than doubled over the last decade.
From January to April this year, the median price per sq ft (psf) of new ECs was S$1,843, compared with S$782 in 2016.
The latest EC launch, Rivelle Tampines, sold over 92 per cent of its 572 units on launch day on Mar 21, at an average price of S$1,893 psf.
In January, Coastal Cabana in Pasir Ris sold about 67 per cent of its 748 units during its launch weekend, at an average price of S$1,734 psf.
