Hari Raya gridlock: How Middle East war heightens road risks for millions in Indonesia, Malaysia

JAKARTA/JOHOR BAHRU: By the time Bayu Arfiansyah, his wife Noviana and his father Karyadi left their home on Saturday (Mar 14), the toll roads leading out of Jakarta were already crowded with fully booked buses and cars packed with passengers and belongings. 

Eid, the Muslim holiday which marked the end of the fasting month Ramadan, was soon approaching, and the 27-year-old civil engineer was determined to spend the holidays with friends and relatives in his home town near the border of Central and East Java.

The first leg of their 650km journey was already stressful. Bayu had to jostle for space with impatient drivers weaving between lanes and cutting into queues with little warning. But the worst was still ahead of them.

As the night wore on, more vehicles from other parts of the Greater Jakarta Area poured onto the highway. Traffic slowed and, in some places, ground to a halt because of accidents, roadworks and long queues of vehicles trying to enter rest areas and petrol stations.

“At least the traffic is still moving,” Bayu, his face illuminated by the endless sea of red brake lights, told CNA journalists who accompanied him for the first half of his journey.

Meanwhile in Malaysia, graphic designer Nik Kamal Al’Azamim spent an entire day on the road with his wife and three children to get from Johor Bahru near the southern tip of Peninsular Malaysia to his home town Bachok some 700km away in the northern state of Kelantan. 

“Normally the drive from Johor Bahru to Bachok takes about nine hours,” he said. “But during the Raya season, that time almost doubles. It usually becomes a 15 (hour) - to 16-hour journey.”

The trip, he added, is rarely smooth, especially with young children in the car.

“Children can have all sorts of moods. They get hungry, they want something to drink, or they need to go to the toilet,” said Nik Kamal, 38.

Every year, scenes like these unfold across Muslim-majority Indonesia and Malaysia as millions set off on long journeys to return home at the end of Ramadan.

During this period, tickets for aeroplanes, trains and buses are typically booked out weeks in advance. Those that remain often see prices surge by more than 100 per cent as demand spikes.

Experts and travellers told CNA this is part of the reason many prefer to use their own cars or motorcycles for the homecoming exodus - known in Indonesia as mudik and in Malaysia as balik kampung, both meaning "returning to the village".

Indonesia’s Ministry of Transportation predicts that over 140 million people will travel during the festive season, making it one of the largest annual homecoming migrations in the world. Of that number, around 53 per cent are expected to use private cars while around 16.7 per cent will travel by motorcycle.

Meanwhile in Malaysia, toll operator PLUS Malaysia Berhad estimates that up to 2.3 million vehicles could travel daily on its highway network from Mar 18 to Mar 23 when the exodus is near its peak.

The surge in vehicles not only leads to heavy traffic congestion but also increases the risk of accidents. 

Last year in Malaysia, more than 15,000 road accidents and 123 deaths were recorded from Mar 29 to Apr 6, during the police safety campaign known as Ops Selamat.

In Indonesia, 223 deaths were recorded by the Indonesian Traffic Police Corps between Mar 20 and Apr 2, 2025, as people travelled to their hometowns.

Officials in both countries say fatigue, reckless driving, as well as unsafe vehicle and road conditions were the main causes of these accidents.

These risks could be compounded this year by rising fuel prices linked to global tensions in the Middle East, said analysts. 

Higher costs for petrol, experts said, may prompt bus operators to scale back services to manage operating expenses as well as push more travellers to opt for the cheaper - but often more dangerous - form of transportation: motorcycles.

Indonesia also faces rising budgetary constraints - due to the Iran war causing oil prices to rise - which could affect how public transportation and roads are inspected and maintained. 

Meanwhile, private vehicle ownership has been on the rise in Malaysia and the country’s road networks are struggling to keep up.  

NO BREAK DUE TO CRIPPLING CONGESTION

Despite carefully planning his route and setting off a full week before Eid to avoid the predicted mudik peak on Tuesday and Wednesday, Bayu still found himself caught in crippling traffic about a third of the way into his journey.

He had planned to stop for a break every two hours, but the congestion kept him behind the wheel for nearly four hours before he could finally take a well-deserved break at a crowded rest area. 

It was close to midnight and yet the stop was jam-packed with weary travellers and those looking for a bite to eat before fasting began at dawn. 

The petrol station near the exit was even more chaotic, as queues of vehicles waiting to refuel intersected with those trying to leave the area.

“I worry that there might be fuel scarcity because of what’s going on in Iran right now, especially as I move further away from the big cities,” Bayu said of the global fuel supply disruption caused by a recent military escalation in the Middle East. “That’s why I fill up every chance I get.”

Bayu spent the next 30 minutes queueing for fuel before resuming his journey.

While what should have been a nine hour-drive stretched into a 15-hour journey for him, it was nothing compared to Malaysian Nik Kamal's worst experience about a decade ago. 

A trip from Johor to Kelantan typically takes around nine hours on a normal day but that year Nik Kamal spent 22 gruelling hours on the road.

“We stopped at every R&R (highway pitstop) to sleep, eat and rest. At some points, traffic was so bad that drivers would just switch off their engines and pull up the handbrake because nothing was moving for hours,” he recalled. 

While reports of Malaysians spending 15 to 20 hours on the road during the balik kampung period continue to dominate headlines, such extreme travel times are becoming less common in Indonesia, thanks largely to the infrastructure push under former president Joko Widodo, said experts.

During his decade in office, from October 2014 to October 2024, Widodo oversaw the construction of about 2,400km of toll roads across the country, accounting for roughly 72 per cent of Indonesia’s total toll road network today.

“Having toll roads makes it easier for officials to carry out various forms of traffic engineering and intervention,” Djoko Setijowarno, a transportation expert from Indonesia’s Soegijapranata Catholic University, told CNA.

To ease congestion, authorities can open certain lanes to non-paying vehicles or implement one-way traffic systems along key corridors during peak travel periods.

But Widodo’s successor, Prabowo Subianto, has not committed the same level of funds to infrastructure development.

In Widodo’s final year in office in 2024, Indonesia allocated 442 trillion rupiah (US$28 billion) for infrastructure. 

That figure was slashed to 86 trillion rupiah in 2025 after Prabowo took office as the new president and prioritised his own programmes including providing free meals to millions of schoolchildren and building over 80,000 cooperatives across the country.

“The number of vehicles keeps growing, and if road capacity is not expanded, congestion will slowly worsen,” Djoko said.  

Malaysia is a prime example of how vehicle ownership outpaces efforts to increase road capacity. 

The country has seen the number of private vehicles rising by at least one million annually since 2019, driven by lower-cost local car models and flexible financing schemes. 

“The increase in the ownership of private vehicles has added to the pressure on the road network,” Law Teik Hua, who heads the Road Safety Research Centre at the engineering faculty of Universiti Putra Malaysia, told CNA. 

As of 2024, there were approximately 38.7 million registered vehicles in Malaysia in a population of 34.1 million. In contrast, Indonesia, a country of 288 million people, had around 21 million passenger cars and 139 million motorcycles as of late last year.

RISING ACCIDENTS 

While the crippling congestion on toll roads and highways can be a major source of fatigue and frustration, experts in both countries said the real danger often emerges when traffic begins to ease.

“The pressure to reach their destinations before the start of the festivities may induce drivers into practices that may compromise road safety, including speeding, lane changes, and tailgating,” said Law of Universiti Putra Malaysia. 

In Indonesia, accidents not only happen on less congested highways but also small provincial roads. 

“Many motorists are already exhausted after driving long distances from the Greater Jakarta area or other cities to their home town regions. Once they reach these areas, the road conditions are often poor and road signs are limited,” Ki Darmaningtyas, chairman of the Indonesian think-tank, Institute for Transportation Studies (INSTRAN), told CNA. 

He added that recent budget cuts could further worsen the situation.

Prabowo has introduced a series of austerity measures to fund his flagship programmes, including reducing transfers to regional governments. These funds - used by provinces and districts to finance local programmes and expenses - were cut from 919 trillion rupiah in 2025 to 693 trillion this year.

“This could mean roads are not maintained as properly and public buses are not inspected as regularly as before,” Darmaningtyas said.

Motorcyclists could be most impacted by the reduced maintenance work. According to the Indonesian Traffic Police Corps, motorcyclists were involved in more than 200,000 accidents last year, making up 75 per cent of all road accidents. 

“(Motorcycles) are less stable (than cars), making them susceptible to bumps and potholes. There aren’t that many places where riders can take a break, sleep and leave their motorcycles safely and securely which means they are more prone to fatigue and microsleep,” said transportation expert Djoko. 

Experts said the conflict in the Middle East which has caused crude oil prices to spike could push more people to use motorcycles. 

“Bus operators are already worried that (the conflict) might lead to fuel scarcity or price hike and are scaling back their operations. People who normally use their cars are also thinking about taking their motorcycles instead,” said transportation think-tank chairman Darmaningtyas.

Motorcycle accidents are also a big problem in Malaysia where more than two thirds of road fatalities during the festive period involve motorcyclists.

Malaysia automotive industry analyst Hezeri Samsuri told CNA that a possible solution to this is to construct lanes dedicated to motorcyclists and impose heftier fines on bikers who flout the rules. 

“I think the flaw is that the punishments are now too lenient. Malaysians should face heftier fines and the media should be reporting on these, just to remind Malaysians that the government is monitoring and will act,” said Hezeri, who is managing editor of automotive news platform Careta Media. 

BETTER SOLUTIONS NEEDED? 

Officials in both countries have taken steps to make the annual exodus safer, faster and more comfortable, including building more roads and expanding rest areas.

They are also encouraging travellers to switch to safer modes of transport such as aeroplanes and trains.

In Malaysia, construction is underway on the much-anticipated East Coast Rail Link (ECRL), which aims to cut travel time between Gombak, Selangor and Kota Bharu, Kelantan from at least seven hours by car to around four hours by train.

The Gombak–Kota Bharu line is expected to begin operations in January 2027, while an extension linking Gombak to Port Klang is scheduled for completion by December 2027.

Meanwhile, Indonesia is planning to extend its high-speed rail line, Whoosh, to connect Jakarta and Surabaya in East Java by 2033. The 800km journey, which currently takes at least 11 hours by car, could be reduced to about three and a half hours by the high-speed train.

For now, Whoosh operates a 142km line between Jakarta and Bandung in West Java.

In the meantime, travellers in Malaysia have alternative options such as budget domestic flights and the electric train service (ETS) operated by Keretapi Tanah Melayu Berhad (KTM).

However, these options remain out of reach for some.

For Nik Kamal and his family of five, a return domestic flight between Johor Bahru and Kota Bharu would cost around RM6,000 (US$1,530), while return ETS tickets would total about RM800. By comparison, driving would cost roughly RM150, including petrol and tolls.

“The ticket prices for flights and trains are just too expensive, so that’s not really an option for us. There are five of us in the family. If it was just one or two people, it might still be manageable,” he said.

In Indonesia, public transport is not always a practical option. For civil engineer Bayu, whose leave schedule is often confirmed at the last minute, booking tickets in advance has been a challenge. 

“For someone like me … it can be quite difficult to rely on public transport,” he said.

Limited transport options in their destinations also play a role.

“Without adequate last-mile connectivity, people see private vehicles as the most practical option for getting around in their home towns,” said Indonesian transportation expert Djoko.

Malaysia faces a similar challenge.

“You can go back using trains but to move around at your kampung (village), you still need a vehicle,” said Malaysian automotive analyst Hezeri. 

“Perhaps if we have cheaper car rental services, using railway and buses and flights to balik kampung would be very doable.”

Despite the gruelling traffic and risk of accidents, mudik and balik kampung remain a necessity for many Indonesians and Malaysians.

“Eid is when family and relatives who live in different cities come home and gather together. Going back at any other time doesn’t feel as special,” said Bayu.

For Nik Kamal, spending Eid with his parents in his village is worth the long hours on the road.

“The journey is definitely long and tiring, but for me it’s part of the memories we create as a family,” he said.