Malaysia state polls: Will Penang remain a Pakatan Harapan stronghold?

GEORGETOWN, Penang: Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition is at risk of losing a two thirds majority in its stronghold of Penang for the first time at the state election, amid a polarised electorate, some analysts believe. 
 
PH swept 37 out of 40 seats in Penang at the last state election in 2018, and despite defections in the infamous Sheraton Move in February 2020, it has still managed to hold on to its super majority in the state. 
 
But this may change at the August 12 polls, said observers. 
 
The opposition Perikatan Nasional (PN), which comprises Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu), Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) and Parti Gerakan Rakyat Malaysia (Gerakan), is eyeing 15 Malay majority seats and an additional five mixed seats in Penang.

“If we cannot win the state election and cannot be the government of the Penang state, then we want to be a strong opposition to do the checks and balances,” said Gerakan president Dominic Lau. 
 
He pointed out that housing and property are now priced out for locals, who continue to be gripped by water, traffic and flood woes.
 
He added that Gerakan, which has experience in running the state for over three decades, ought to be given a chance to rule.

IMPORTANT FOR UNITY GOVERNMENT TO BE STRONG AT FEDERAL LEVEL

However, the state government led by PH constituent party Democratic Action Party (DAP) is confident of winning at least 30 of the 40 seats up for grabs. 
 
“Our prime minister has been going round the whole country, meeting and engaging with voters. Particularly for Penang, he has delivered on the promises of the LRT and other projects,” said DAP Penang vice-chairman Zairil Khir Johari.  
 
“I believe that voters will be able to see that it is important for the unity government to be strong at the federal level, so that Penang will ultimately benefit.”

A high voter turnout of at least 70 per cent is crucial, said Mr Zairil, adding that Penang has done well economically.

There are more than 1.2 million registered voters in Penang. Many are working outstation and overseas.

But the opposition coalition PN has claimed it is ahead of PH in its social media campaign and as a result, could read the pulse of young voters better.
 
Opposition MP Muhammad Fawwaz Mohamad Jan from Islamic party PAS said many first-time voters in Penang are not chasing material wealth, adding that “a big surprise is coming in this state election”. 

Mr Fawwaz was hailed as a rural legend among some village folks in the mainland of Penang after defeating Ms Nurul Izzah Anwar, daughter of Mr Anwar, to wrest control of his stronghold of Permatang Pauh.

“We were the underdogs,” said Mr Fawwaz. “I was shocked when I won because this is the stronghold of (Mr Anwar's party) PKR (Parti Keadilan Rakyat).”

Mr Anwar blamed the defeat on the opposition’s religious and racial-centric political narratives. 

OPPOSITION BID TO TRY AND DESTABILISE UNITY GOVERNMENT 

Political analysts said how the unity government performs in Penang will depend on the selection of candidates and how well PH and Barisan Nasional (BN) coalitions, which were sworn enemies for decades, can work together on the ground to garner votes.

But some United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) supporters who are against working with PH, in particular the Democratic Action Party (DAP) that has been perceived as anti-Malay and Islam, may just boycott the election.

UMNO’s Penang youth chief Mohd Hilmi Elias said: “For 60 years, DAP and BN have fought. It's only been six months since we started working together.

"We need time. That's why we need to convince Malay voters to look at the big picture."

Analysts warned that support in Malay seats might swing along the trajectory seen at the 15th General Election, when the opposition PN won three federal seats. 

“DAP will be fine. They just have to make sure turnout is up,” said Mr Keith Leong, head of research at public affairs and political risk consultancy KRA Group. 
 
“They have to make sure they win enough Malay legislators to show that it is not entirely DAP dominated.”

Meanwhile, Penang Chief Minister Chow Kon Yeow, who is from the DAP, will have his work cut out to ensure equal economic development in both the island and mainland, as well as demonstrate inclusivity for Penang residents.

Observers are unsure if PH will retain a two-third majority in the state, adding that the opposition PN will be pulling out all the stops in a bid to destabilise Mr Anwar’s unity government.

The Malaysian leader wants the three state seats in Permatang Pauh to be contested by PKR, but failure to defend them may be an embarrassment for him and his administration, said observers.

“There is only one Anwar,” said Vriens & Partners associate director Shazwan Mustafa Kamal. “It appears he is trying to do everything by himself.”