Commentary: Malaysia PM Anwar faces crucial test in battle for Malay vote in upcoming state polls
The outcome of the upcoming six state elections will determine whether Malaysia can break away from the years of political grief that has weighed down on the country’s financial markets and its rumpled economy, says CNA’s Leslie Lopez.
KUALA LUMPUR: Election fever is sweeping Malaysia again with the upcoming polls for the control of six states shaping up as a referendum on the seven-month administration of Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim.
While Mr Anwar has received strong approval ratings from ordinary Malaysians for his leadership, stewardship of the economy and efforts to sharply dial down the temperatures in politics, the still-shaky appeal of his multi-racial Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition government among the country’s ethnic Malay community continues to be a drag on the country’s prospects.
Unless Mr Anwar can show that his government is gaining acceptance among ethnic voters in the upcoming state elections, the narrative in Malaysian politics will continue to be framed around the struggles of a multi-racial ruling coalition government against opposition forces made up exclusively of two Malay parties driving issues of race and religion.
That in turn would keep sentiment on the stock and currency markets skittish, undermining efforts by the government to attract much-needed foreign investment into a moribund economy.
The deep divide in the Malay community, which makes up more than 60 per cent of the population, is the chief cause of the country’s political grief.
The PH coalition did not secure an outright win in the November 2022 general election, and Mr Anwar became prime minister only after the once-dominant United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) party gave its support to the coalition, triggering other political entities to coalesce around PH.
Still, the strong majority remains marred by the perception that the Anwar-led PH coalition government lacks legitimacy because a majority of the country’s ethnic voters backed the opposition alliance dominated by the right-wing Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) and Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) in the November general election. Together, the two exclusively Malay parties make up the Perikatan Nasional coalition along with a small multi-racial entity called Parti Gerakan.
It is going to be an uphill struggle for the 75-year-old Mr Anwar in the weeks ahead of the six state elections that are expected to be held simultaneously sometime in August.
DID ANWAR DELIVER ON ELECTORAL PROMISES?
Mr Anwar is being attacked by the opposition for his administration’s failure to deliver on its electoral promises to alleviate the hardships faced by Malaysians over an increase in the cost of living.
The country has seen stagnant wages and limited unemployment prospects because businesses, particularly the country’s small- and medium-size enterprises, have yet to recover from the economic and social havoc wreaked by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Separately, Mr Anwar is coming under fire from the opposition for his alleged compromises on his fight against corruption. He has been accused of targeting his political opponents while making compromises for his political allies from UMNO, in particular party president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi who is currently one of the two deputy premiers in government despite being on trial for corruption in the Malaysian courts.
UMNO, which has been the cornerstone for successive government coalitions since independence in 1957, has seen its fortunes slide sharply in the last decade, culminating in the party’s ejection from power in the 2018 general election on the back of the financial debacle at state-owned 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB) that resulted in the jailing of former premier and UMNO president Najib Abdul Razak.
The party now ranks as the weakest purely Malay-based party, behind PAS and Bersatu, and its fortunes are unlikely to improve in the upcoming state elections.
The PH coalition is widely expected to retain control of the state legislatures of Selangor, Penang and Negeri Sembilan. The northeastern states of Kelantan and Terengganu, which have long remained as bastions of PAS, appear to be intact for the opposition.
Kedah is shaping up as a key battleground, where PH leaders hope to show that the coalition can claw back electoral ground, or even possibly win narrowly, in a state that is more than 80 per cent Malay-dominated.
RACE FOR THE YOUTH VOTE
Close advisors of the premier acknowledge that the slippage in popularity that UMNO has suffered in recent years does not show any signs of abating. Mr Anwar is banking on first-time voters and the younger Malay population to give his coalition a chance to deliver on his economic promises.
Unlike earlier generations that traditionally backed UMNO because the party was credited for achieving independence from the British, defusing racial tension in the late 1960s and implementing sweeping programmes that helped ordinary Malays advance economically, the younger voters have no in-built loyalty to the party.
There were 5 million new voters that were drafted into the electoral rolls in the November 2022 general election after Malaysia reduced the voting age from 21 to 18.
Mr Anwar is counting on this wave.
Leslie Lopez is a senior correspondent at CNA Digital who reports on political and economic affairs in the region.
