New private home sales in September fall to lowest since December 2022

SINGAPORE: Monthly sales of new private homes in Singapore fell to their lowest since December 2022, according to data for September released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) on Monday (Oct 16).

Excluding executive condominiums (ECs), the 217 units sold last month marked a drop of 44.9 per cent from the 394 units sold in August.

The figure was also 78 per cent less than the 987 units sold in the same month last year.

The last time there were fewer sales was in December last year, when 170 units were transacted.

Analysts said the second straight month of declining sales could be attributed to the absence of major launches during that period.

A total of 68 units were launched in September, a significant drop from 590 units in August and 2,156 units in July.

Edmund Tie's head of research and consulting Lam Chern Woon said: "Developers have held back on launches on the back of a surge in new project launches in the past few months."

OrangeTee and Tie senior vice president Christine Sun added that the housing market usually quietens during the lunar seventh month or Hungry Ghost festival, which ended in mid-September. 

Singapore Realtors' head of research and data analytics Mohan Sandrasegeran also pointed to the school holidays as a factor, while JLL's head of residential research Chia Siew Chuin cited greater buyer prudence amid a slower economy and market cooling measures. 

"Some homebuyers may also become increasingly selective, amid a multitude of options currently available in the market," added Edmund Tie's Mr Lam. 

EXEC CONDOS STILL IN DEMAND

Analysts however noted that demand for ECs has remained strong, with Huttons Asia senior director Lee Sze Teck describing them as the next best alternative to private homes, for price-sensitive buyers.

Mr Lee also noted that buyers of ECs are given upfront remission on Additional Buyers’ Stamp Duty (ABSD). 

Altura, the only EC project in 2023, sold 99 units in September and 1 unit in October, bringing its total sales to 317 out of 360 or a take-up rate of 88 per cent.

"When examining the developer sales data for the month of September, it becomes evident that Altura has made significant strides within the EC market," said Mr Mohan, calling it "the best-seller in the new launch segment".

He said Altura's appeal and popularity among prospective homebuyers could also be attributed to the recent "dry spell" in the launch of new ECs.

"GUARDED" BUYER SENTIMENT?

Pointing to potential major launches in the coming months - including Watten House in the prime district and Hillock Green and J'den in the suburbs - Mr Sun said she anticipated "strong buying interest" in at least the latter project, given its location at Jurong Lake District among other factors.

She estimated that excluding ECs, around 6,300 to 6,800 new homes could be sold in 2023 - with new prices potentially rising by 1 to 3 per cent for the full year. 

Mr Lee predicted between 6,500 and 7,500 units, with prices increasing up to 5 per cent on the back of higher inflation and resilient demand.

Ms Chia gave a similar range of 6,500 to 7,000 units, but noted that this would be below an earlier projection of 7,000 to 7,500 units as well as the total of 7,099 units sold in 2022.

"In the next few months, buyer sentiment will remain guarded in the light of weak macroeconomic conditions, market cooling measures and elevated interest rates," she said.

"Given that buyers are largely cost-conscious, sensitive pricing by developers for upcoming project launches ... could support sales volume. However, there will not be significant price cuts as developers had committed to earlier capital outlays."

Mr Lam, whose predictions of units sold this year also lie between 6,500 to 7,500, added that the "softer" public resale housing market may also temper demand for private homes. 

"The juxtaposition of property prices growth and slower transaction volume in Q3 2023, may lead to prices trading sideways in the next few months," he said. 

"Overall, prices are poised to rise at a more sustainable pace of 3 to 5 per cent this year ... and the property market outlook next year would hinge largely on the pace of economic growth.