Singapore's key exports fall 4.6% in July; drop steeper than expected

SINGAPORE: Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (NODX) fell 4.6 per cent in July, a reversal from the revised 12.9 per cent expansion posted in June.

The drop is steeper than the 1.8 per cent contraction forecast by a Reuters poll.

Enterprise Singapore (EnterpriseSG) data released on Monday (Aug 18) showed that electronics exports rose, while non-electronics shipments contracted.

The agency said the non-electronics decline was from a high base a year earlier and attributed it primarily to "volatile products like pharmaceuticals".

On a year-on-year basis, electronic products exports increased by 2.8 per cent in July after growing by 8 per cent in the previous month.

PCs, integrated circuits and bare printed circuit boards grew by 80.4 per cent, 8 per cent and 25.8 per cent, respectively, contributing the most to the expansion of electronic products exports. 

Non-electronic products fell by 6.6 per cent in July after seeing growth of 14.4 per cent in June. 

Pharmaceuticals, petrochemicals and food preparations were the main contributors to the decline in non-electronic NODX as they contracted by 18.9 per cent, 23.4 per cent and 26.3 per cent, respectively.

NODX to the United States, China and Indonesia declined in July by 42.7 per cent, 12.2 per cent and 32.2 per cent, respectively, while NODX to the European Union, Taiwan, South Korea and Hong Kong grew.

Non-oil re-exports (NORX) grew by 22.1 per cent in July, following the 18.3 per cent growth recorded in the previous month. 

Both electronics and non-electronics NORX saw an increase. 

On a year-on-year basis, electronics NORX expanded by 29.1 per cent in July, following the 26.2 per cent growth posted in June. 

Non-electronics NORX grew by 13.8 per cent in July following an 8.6 per cent increase in June. 

NORX to Taiwan, the United States and Hong Kong grew by 180.8 per cent, 51.4 per cent and 25.3 per cent, respectively, in July. 

Total trade expanded by 8.4 per cent year-on-year, following the 5.3 per cent rise seen in the last month, with total exports growing by 8.6 per cent and total imports expanding by 8.1 per cent.

The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) last week upgraded Singapore's gross domestic product growth forecast for the year to 1.5 per cent to 2.5 per cent, up from 0 per cent to 2 per cent previously.

MTI said the narrowed forecast largely reflected the better-than-expected performance of the Singapore economy in the first half of 2025.

Singapore's economy grew 4.4 per cent in the second quarter of the year, a slight upgrade from the advance estimate of 4.3 per cent. GDP growth for the first quarter was 4.1 per cent.

For the first half of the year, Singapore's GDP growth came in at 4.3 per cent when compared with the previous year.

It was the second time in 2025 that the ministry had changed its growth forecast for the year. The forecast was first downgraded in April after US President Donald Trump announced a global baseline tariff of 10 per cent and reciprocal tariffs on many other economies.

EnterpriseSG said separately last week that NODX grew 7.1 per cent in the second quarter of the year, up from 3.3 per cent in the January to March period, but kept its forecast for the year at growth of 1 per cent to 3 per cent.

"The lower bound of the forecast builds in a weaker profile for 2H 2025 following stronger-than-expected 1H 2025 NODX growth," the agency said.

As frontloading activities taper and reciprocal tariffs take effect, these could weigh on global economic activity and trade, EnterpriseSG said.

It added that the evolving tariff situation and continued economic uncertainty could dampen demand, and sector-specific tariff risks remain.

In his National Day Rally speech on Sunday, Prime Minister Lawrence Wong said that he took little comfort from the baseline 10 per cent tariff the US had imposed on Singapore goods.

"Because no one knows if – or when – the US might raise the baseline. Or set higher tariffs on specific industries like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors," he said.

"What we do know is that there will be more trade barriers in the world. That means small and open economies like us will feel the squeeze."

However, Mr Wong added that the Singapore Economic Resilience Taskforce chaired by Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong had been working hard to address these risks.

"Kim Yong and his team have been hard at work, travelling to different countries and negotiating deals to secure Singapore's interest," he said.

"They have been rolling out targeted solutions to help businesses and workers."

He added that the task force is not only addressing immediate challenges, but is also looking ahead to review and refresh Singapore's economic strategies, with younger office holders working alongside industry partners and union leaders in this effort.