‘Getting harder to continue this war’: Ukrainians fear Israel-Hamas conflict would divert attention, funding away

KYIV: Ukrainians fear that political divisions in the United States Congress and the escalating conflict between Israel and Hamas could divert attention - and funding - away from their country.

Ukraine will soon enter its third year of war against Russia, amid concerns that funding from western countries, especially the US, could become harder to come by.

Ukrainians believe Russia is banking on the West to lose interest in this conflict, saying that their fight would become much more challenging without continued support from the West. 

ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR COULD DIVERT RESOURCES AWAY

Observers said the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas has sparked concerns that resources could be diverted away. 

“If this war escalates, energy prices will go up, so the price of living in Europe will go up, and it can create serious domestic tensions in European countries,” said Mr Petro Burkovskyi, executive director of the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation, a Ukrainian think tank. 

“It can result in the electoral victories of populist governments who will try to mend, to repair relations, or re-establish relations with Russia, and with the Middle East - oil-rich, gas-rich countries. So there is a threat that this regional war can result in the weakening of international support of Ukraine.”

Ukraine’s Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov said the country is spending about US$100 million a day, in a conflict that has evolved into a war of attrition.

Its forces fire between 4,000 and 7,000 artillery shells daily, which is as much as an annual order from a small European nation.

Officials from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) warned that the West is running out of ammunition to give, as challenges mount to keep support for Ukraine on the world's agenda.

“There is certainly a lot of drain, and the Ukraine crisis has put a lot of drain on the ability of EU states to ensure that there's not just financial aid but also military aid forthcoming,” said Dr Matthew Sussex, a visiting fellow at the Australian National University's Strategic and Defence Studies Centre. 

FADING GLOBAL ATTENTION

While the European Union has beefed up its financial assistance, the bloc is no match for America as a weapons donor.

So far, Washington has given Kyiv almost US$47 billion in military aid.

But in September, the US Congress excluded funding for Ukraine in its spending bill to avoid a government shutdown. The new Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson has also opposed continuing with aid.

“I don't think support across the board, if we talk about Democrats and Republicans, wanting to provide aid for Ukraine is waning per se,” Dr Sussex told CNA938’s Asia First on Tuesday (Nov 7). 

“It's more the kind of weird mess that's been thrown up by the removal of the former speaker Kevin McCarthy, where you have a new speaker who's strongly opposed to aid for Ukraine and has decided to put up a spending bill prioritising aid for Israel first.” 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has continued to frame the war as a threat to freedom and democracy, and ramped up diplomatic efforts to shore up support for his country.

Some experts said a visible win is needed to convince the West their support is paying off. This comes as positions along the 1,000km frontline have barely moved this year.

Dr Sussex said: “Inevitably, the conflict will be a long drawn out one, probably over three to four years, because frankly, neither (Russian President) Vladimir Putin in Moscow or Zelenskyy in Ukraine has really any incentive to stop fighting.”

Kyiv residents are worried about the fading global attention.

“It's necessary for the West to influence Putin to stop this war - that's the most crucial thing to put an end to these shelling attacks,” said 22-year-old former soldier Valentyna Denhina.

“We don't want to give up our land for which so many of our young men have already sacrificed their lives.”

SLIM PROSPECTS OF DIPLOMATIC RESOLUTION

Dr Sussex believes the possibility of a diplomatic resolution to the war is fairly slim. 

“Both Putin and Zelenskyy are motivated to continue fighting,” he said. “Particularly, Putin is calculating that he wants to try and wait the West out.”

Mr Putin has decided to run in the March presidential election, a move that could keep him in power till 2030. 

Dr Sussex said this signals Mr Putin’s determination to stay the course in Russian politics, “partly because he set up a type of system where there is no alternative to Vladimir Putin”. 

“He is this sort of black hole of decisions at the centre of the Russian government that sucks all attempts to have an alternative gravity form,” he added.

“So there are no real successes to Putin out there. And I think probably he has demonstrated throughout his career that he has a bit of a problem when it comes to trusting people.”

Yet there is pressure on Mr Putin to deliver results on the conflict with Ukraine, or face a further weakening of his power base, said Dr Sussex, adding that Russia has lost “a fair bit of prestige” in international reputation and military prowess. 

The country has suffered heavy losses, he noted.

“As a conventional military power, Russia has been very badly damaged.”

SENSE OF FATIGUE 

Observers said there is an undeniable sense of fatigue after nearly two years of war.

As the fighting grinds on, weary Ukrainian families are campaigning for shorter rotations for soldiers.

“My husband has been at the frontlines for 16 months now with no rotations,” said a 24-year-old Kyiv resident.

“He hasn't seen our child, just like my uncle, who also hasn't seen his two children. I just want our defenders to come back and have the right to life as well.”

Meanwhile, some soldiers who have been injured in their fight against Russia’s invasion are preparing to go back to the frontlines after months of rehabilitation. 

Latysh, who has a wife and daughter, was a soldier of a drone reconnaissance unit before he lost his leg in the battle of Irpin last year.

He is eager to keep fighting, but is concerned that there are not enough resources for the battlefield.  

“Currently, we have people to fight but lack the necessary resources for it. Our supplies are very limited and it's getting harder to continue this war,” he said.