Commentary: Iran war is about to escalate with no exit in sight

SINGAPORE: The United States and Israel’s war on Iran is about to escalate with no exit strategy in sight.

This week, Israel killed three senior Iranian officials: security chief Ali Larijani, military commander Gholamreza Soleimani and intelligence minister Esmail Khatib. Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said that the military is authorised to kill any senior official they can locate.

Several factors are pushing the combatants toward escalation. US President Donald Trump cannot credibly declare victory and an end to the war as long as Iran controls passage through the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

Israel signalled its intent to emasculate Iran militarily and economically for years to come with the assassination of top officials and an attack on the South Pars Gas field.

Iran, determined to prolong the war in the belief that it has the longest breath and ability to absorb body blows, has vowed to retaliate for Israeli actions in ways that will ramp up hostilities.

DECAPITATION STRATEGY YET TO BE SUCCESSFUL

Israel has long pursued a decapitation strategy against its adversaries, in the faulty assumption that eliminating their leadership would destroy them.

The strategy has yet to produce a success. Despite the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the first day of the war and of three senior officials this week, Israel has failed to break the regime’s cohesion, let alone spark its collapse.

Iran has been here before, even if the war poses the most existential threat in its 47-year history.

The Islamic Republic’s president and prime minister, alongside its chief justice and more than 70 other senior officials, were assassinated or killed in bombings in 1981, two and a half years after the toppling of the Shah. Israel killed several military leaders and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders in last June’s 12-day Israel-Iran war.

With Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Ali Khamenei, asserting that “every drop of blood has a price”, Tehran could retaliate for the most recent assassinations by targeting senior Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Mr Katz.

What the most recent assassinations mean for Iran and the course of the war will likely be evident when Mr Khamenei appoints Mr Larijani’s successor.

Potential candidates include former National Security Council head Saeed Jalili, who was a hardline presidential candidate in the 2024 election, and Iranian diplomat Ali Bagheri, who is viewed as moderate.

Irrespective of who succeeds Mr Larijani, a consensus builder who favoured de-escalation, Iran’s next generation of leaders are likely to have been shaped by the Iran-Iraq war, the sense of being besieged by the United States, and the wars with the US and Israel.

RISK OF A REGIONAL WAR

Alongside Israel’s assassination campaign, Iran’s vow of retaliation for the attack on the South Pars gas field promises to intensify the war. On Thursday (Mar 19), it attacked Qatar’s Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas production facility, the world’s largest.

Mr Trump threatened to “blow up” the entire South Pars gas field if Tehran continued to target the Gulf’s energy industry. 

Raising the temperature, Saudi foreign minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud suggested that Gulf states could respond to Iran’s attacks militarily, noting that they have “very significant capacities and capabilities” that could be drawn on should they “choose to do so”.

Similarly, Anwar Gargash, a senior United Arab Emirates presidential adviser, said that the attacks could push Gulf states to cooperate more closely with the United States and Israel.

The targeting of energy infrastructure is part of Iran’s strategy to inflict pain on Gulf states, American consumers and global energy and commercial markets. Tehran believes its ability to withstand these shocks exceeds that of the Gulf and Washington.

Controlling shipping in the strategic Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 per cent of the world’s oil and gas exports pass, is another element of the Iranian strategy.

The strait also matters to the Gulf’s food security. Largely desert landscapes, Gulf states are dependent on the strait for 70 per cent of all food consumed in the region.

There is no way Mr Trump can credibly declare victory in the war without wresting control of the strait from Iran. To do so, Washington must occupy Iran’s shoreline and islands at the mouth of the strait, and order escorts for tankers through the waterway.

Mr Trump has begun to expand the war with this week’s dropping of 5,000-pound bombs on Iranian missile sites and dispatching the USS Tripoli, an amphibious assault ship with thousands of Marines on board, to the Gulf. None of these actions are foolproof, nor rule out putting American boots on the ground.

Whether one looks at the fallout of Israel’s decapitation campaign, Iranian retaliation for Israel’s attacks, or the fate of the Strait of Hormuz, escalation is the writing on the wall.

Dr James M Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Associate Editor of WhoWhatWhy, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World with James M Dorsey.